Well, you haven't heard much from me for awhile, but seems a good time to say a few words.
Seems a long time now since I started blogging and when I look back now my baseline was the 28 December 2009 when the FTSE100 stood at 5412.88, a little more than a year after the start of the credit crunch during which it ploughed a low of around 3800 in Oct. 08 and ran at this level for much of the first quarter of 2009, during which time, in Mar. 09, it had a closing low of around 3500 before starting a long shallow recovery to close 2009 at 5412.88, my starting point.
Almost feels like we have gone full circle in 10 years to be right back where it all began with the FTSE100 hitting a low (current), of 4993.89 on the 23 March.
With health and life the primary concern, I fully appreciate that there is so much more to be worried about at the moment, but our income, savings and investments are also very much at the forefront of peoples' minds as they try to grasp what is happening around us.
I've been invested now through every market rout since, and including 1987, and despite, every rout appearing different and potentially game changing, things have always found a way to come good again.
Whilst we, or I, try to use patience as a main tool, others have been patiently waiting for the turmoil and fear of the current situation and will be making profits in the rout.
I have certainly felt the fear, and anxiety as profits have melted away and the initial leak has turned into a torrent. Logic and reason has also gone out of the window as a very significant (to me), amount of capital has just evaporated.
It hasn't helped losing touch with my monitors and it took me a little time before I even dared look at my portfolio, but eventually a little courage won out and I brought everything back up to date.
The figures are certainly not pretty, I have seen a near 100% amount (based on starting capital), fall in profits from a high of 170% since inception down to (and this is the important part of the message), a gain of 75%.
The real £note figures have been hugely painful and fearful to accept, but bringing things up to date, has helped me to see that I am actually still up by 75% (dividends re-invested), whilst the FTSE100 has fallen into negative territory after 10 years.
And differently to previous crashes I have lived through, I have actually taken significant dividends out over the last 3 years, in order to finance a house purchase, a kitchen renovation, and a change of vehicle.
In previous crashes, I've often regretted not splurging an amount on a fast car or something before the crash, in order to have had some benefit rather than just paper gains. At least in this case I have, so my living hasn't been held back for a vanished paper profit.
Anyway, I'm trying to give out a positive message that, if world governments and populations can contain the current pandemic, preserving both our health and livelihoods, then markets will find a way to recover.
With little science or statistical estimates, and just looking at 2008/09, I would suggest a probable 3 year timescale (with various zig zaggy dips and false dawns), for markets to recover back to a level that would make most of us accepting (even forgetful of the pain), of the losses we have all seen in the recent bloodbath.
Stay safe.
As at 17 March 2020
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | All time | |||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||
| Lloyds | 33.23p | 27.89% | 10.11% | -41.49% | -46.84% | -46.19% | ||
| Aviva | 238.20p | 13.41% | 13.04% | -32.10% | -43.11% | -34.02% | ||
| National Grid | 905.70p | 28.03% | 5.38% | -9.95% | -4.09% | 87.15% | ||
| BP | 240.00p | 11.04% | 13.71% | -39.42% | -49.11% | -42.31% | ||
| Apple ** | $273.36 | 0.00% | 0.85% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Fevertree Drinks | 1262.00p | 0.00% | 1.27% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Royal Dutch Shell | 1013.00p | 2.32% | 15.07% | -39.11% | -54.77% | -60.65% | ||
| Standard Chartered | 441.50p | 7.01% | 4.74% | -30.03% | -38.03% | -33.83% | ||
| Amazon ** | 1883.75p | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Cash | 10.30% | 0.00% | ||||||
| 100.00% | 8.27% | |||||||
| 1 month | YTD | All time | ||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 2478.43 | 1753.28 | -29.26% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 2239.00 | 1753.28 | -21.29% | ||||||
| - 123 mnth gain 1000.00 | 1753.28 | 75.33% | ||||||
| Unit Price - £ | 1.75328 | (Starting price - £1) | ||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 6580.61 | 5056.31 | -23.16% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 6728.13 | 5056.31 | -24.85% | ||||||
| - 123 mnth gain 5412.88 | 5056.31 | -6.59% | ||||||
| Transactions: | ||||||||
| 09/01/2020 | Div | National Grid @ 16.08p per share | ||||||
| 17/02/2020 | Div | Apple @ 48.37p per share | ||||||
| 23/01/2020 | Sell | Fevertree @ 147.99p per share | ||||||
| 24/01/2020 | Sell | Amazon @ 1118.92p per share | ||||||
| 24/01/2020 | Sell | Apple @ 2440.11p per share | ||||||
