July 2018: Portfolio Update

Outpaced by the FTSE in July, which wasn't helped by a no dividend month. However, my portfolio has managed to stay ahead on a YTD basis at 1.44% v. the FTSE's 0.79%.

In the month BP's second quarter reported higher replacement cost profits of $2.8bn (uk.webfg.com: bp-profit-surges-on-oil-price-recovery), ahead of analyst estimates ($2.7bn), and its first dividend increase since 2014, mostly driven by an increase in the price of Brent crude to $73/barrel from $55 in the previous year. Given the global instability this did not translate into a share price surge over the month.

BAT (uk.webfg.com: british-american-tobacco ) reported a first half fall in revenues from exchange rates and continuing falls in volume but did reiterate that "underlying earnings remained solid and on track for the full year".
BAT has led the way in July though

Galliford Try also reported (uk.webfg.com: galliford-try-issues-solid-year-end-update), with positive momentum in its objectives.

So with SSE leading the fallers (down 7.75%), and BAT leading the risers (9.69%), there is still lots of swings and volatility, which seem largely down to: the ongoing and escalation trade tariff war; a fast looming Brexit and sterling weakness; and the political instability, price caps and potential renationalisation of utilities that a Labour Government might bring.
SSE and National Grid being very much linked to the last element.

In my head, it feels that between the Trump era and the all party shambles that is Brexit, I'm probably taking a hit of 10% or more, and it remains to be seen if, when or how long this might take to recover.

Finally, there were additions to Galliford Try, Standard Life Aberdeen, and Vodafone, with the latter starting to sit heavily on me.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	62.38p	24.72%	5.32%	-1.06%	-8.35%	1.03%
Aviva	500.00p	12.63%	5.86%	-0.79%	-1.28%	39.79%
National Grid	813.30p	11.88%	5.81%	-2.99%	-6.76%	68.05%
BP	573.30p	12.45%	5.39%	-0.86%	9.68%	37.80%
Apple **	$190.29	10.58%	1.22%	3.63%	15.91%	400.51%
BAT	4201.00p	2.78%	4.80%	9.69%	-16.28%	25.24%
Imperial Brands	2922.00p	4.08%	6.43%	3.54%	-1.24%	21.87%
Royal Dutch Shell	2671.50p	2.88%	5.38%	-1.55%	6.50%	3.78%
Vodafone	186.00p	2.10%	7.31%	1.31%	-18.35%	-23.27%
SSE	1250.00p	1.20%	7.80%	-7.75%	-5.30%	8.61%
Galliford Try	932.50p	2.50%	7.50%	6.73%	19.61%	14.55%
Standard Chartered	688.00p	3.24%	2.48%	-0.66%	-2.75%	-2.75%
Standard Life Aberdeen	312.30p	4.12%	7.6%	-3.14%	-7.46%	-7.46%
Cash		4.83%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.92%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2626.82	2633.40			-0.20%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2633.40				1.44%
- 103 month gain 1000.00	2633.40					162.15%
Unit Price - £	2.63340	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7636.93	7678.20			1.46%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7678.20				0.79%
- 103 month gain 5412.88	7678.20					43.15%
Transactions:
23/07/2018	Buy	Galliford Try @ 8.5218p per share
23/07/2018	Buy	Standard Life Aberdeen @ 346.31
23/07/2018	Buy	Vodafone @ 187.46p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 1.31 as at 31/07/2018
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.12967 as at 31/07/2018

Click to enlarge, close to return.

April 2015: Portfolio Update

So with April coming to a close, and early May bringing the UK General Elections for 2015, and after months of poll data suggesting various permutations of a hung parliament that had threatened to produce a long drawn out period of uncertainty, the outcome has instead been a more decisive shock and awe result.

UK markets and indices have zigged and zagged with increasing volatility as the May 7th date came closer, and then surged, along with sterling, after the unexpectedly clean result produced a party majority.

In line with that, or in spite of it, the FTSE 100 has still managed to create new all time highs in 2015 and breach the near mythical promised land beyond 7000.

And, more satisfyingly my own portfolio has also continued to achieve new highs this year, with April's close marking a total 129.83% gain in the 5 years and 4 months since I started measuring and working with this portfolio.

Anyway the last month has seen a bounce in Microsoft (+15.52%), after a better than expected quarterly update (Interesting end to the week!), and R-R (+9.76%), after its own well received news of a new CEO and a record order.
Elsewhere,  BG Group surged 42.58%, following a confirmed and agreed bid from Royal Dutch Shell (BG Group shelling out?).

BP has also basked in the searchlight for potential bid targets, with a gain of +7.55%, as well as being buoyed by a recovering oil price.

Imperial Tobacco has also benefited from analyst upgrades ahead of a well recieved trading update in May.

Apple initially surged, in aftermarket trading, to new highs of circa $134, after posting another good set of pre- Apple Watch quarterly results, but have since pulled back with the wider sentiment in American markets (Interesting end to the week!).

William Hill also suffered after an update included the impact of a bad week of football results continuing to hold back performance (Interesting end to the week!).

Other holdings, BAE, SSE, Centrica, Barratt, BAT, along with Imperial Tobacco and William Hill, were also hampered with pre-election concerns.

As mentioned in my previous post reviewing 2014 dividends 2014 Dividends Profiled., April is a poor dividend month for my portfolio with, as suggested, the only receipt coming from GE.

So in a difficult volatile month ahead of May's General Election, my portfolio managed a gain of +3.78% v. +2.77% by the FTSE100, making +9.96% for the year to date.

Its worth noting that sterling strengthened against the dollar too, rising to $1.536 from $1.483, which does impact recent gains in my US$ holdings: Apple, GE, Microsoft, and Verizon, as they convert back into sterling.

I have also added new funds, and made an additional purchase in BG Group ahead of the deal with Royal Dutch Shell.
By using a unit price, the funds go in at nil gain.
Its a slight gamble given the timescale and planned completion next year but, with my expectation being that it will go through I feel there is a premium to be gained by topping up in this way (BG Group shelling out?), and looking to find myself with a holding in the higher yielding Royal Dutch Shell.
Clearly I'm also expecting a higher oil price eventually for both Royal Dutch Shell and BP to maintain dividends and renew share price gains.

			Forecast	1 month	YTD	52 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1046.00p	24.89%	2.27%	9.76%	20.23%	59.34%
Aviva	527.00p	12.55%	4.01%	-2.41%	8.77%	45.66%
National Grid	879.00p	12.71%	5.09%	1.62%	-4.26%	58.95%
BP	470.00p	9.62%	5.56%	7.55%	14.36%	11.07%
Apple **	$125.15	8.37%	1.36%	-2.87%	15.08%	123.86%
IG Group	737.00p	4.36%	4.25%	3.95%	2.50%	54.44%
Imperial Tobacco	3192.00p	2.94%	4.40%	7.73%	12.55%	41.30%
William Hill	361.00p	2.70%	3.51%	-2.70%	-0.41%	96.01%
BAT	3592.00p	2.24%	4.35%	2.98%	2.63%	7.09%
Vodafone	231.00p	2.08%	5.10%	5.00%	3.75%	-8.44%
Microsoft **	$48.64	2.14%	2.09%	15.52%	6.29%	76.94%
Banco Santander	488.00p	1.87%	2.78%	-3.17%	-10.38%	-10.57%
General Electric **	$27.08	1.89%	2.90%	5.40%	8.77%	80.31%
BAE Systems	508.00p	1.67%	4.12%	-3.05%	7.63%	53.94%
Barratt Dev.	519.00p	1.52%	4.45%	-1.89%	10.19%	45.19%
SSE	1547.00p	1.40%	5.92%	3.27%	-4.62%	26.29%
Verizon **	3284.86p	1.41%	3.75%	0.16%	9.44%	18.36%
Centrica	255.00p	1.05%	4.92%	0.79%	-8.60%	-23.10%
BG Group	1182.00p	2.71%	1.89%	42.58%	36.65%	-3.83%
Cash		1.89%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.50%
				1 month	YTD	52 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2214.53 -	2298.27			3.78%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2298.27				9.96%
- 52 month gain 1264.20 -	2298.27					81.80%
- 64 month gain 1000.00 -	2298.27					129.83%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6773.04 -	6960.63			2.77%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6960.63				6.01%
- 52 month gain 5971.01 -	6960.63					16.57%
- 64 month gain 5412.88 -	6960.63					28.59%
Transactions:
10/04/2015		Charges
10/04/2015	Buy	Funds added @ 2.215 (April Index close)
10/04/2015	Buy	BG @ 407.39p per share
29/04/2015	Div	General Electric @ 12.72p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.53553 as at 30/04/15
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.36933 as at 30/04/15

As mentioned last month, I have also had to increase the scale to accommodate new highs, which present a satisfying picture.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

Looking ahead, the General Election (as we now know), did continue to affect markets with surges and pull backs, and, a further surge following the unexpectedly quick and decisive outcome.
I'm sure that won't be the end of it though as more questions and uncertainty continue to show up on the horizon such as the future of Greece in Europe, the future of the UK in Europe, and the future of the UK even? 
And this on top of the usual questions of Chinese demand and global economic growth, relationships with Russia, and the Middle East.
It really doesn't ever end, does it?

But, I am also watching a few shares (I have missed a few too it seems), and hope to make further purchases in the coming months.

Good luck.

Related Posts:

- Interesting end to the week!

- BG Group shelling out?

- 2014 Dividends Profiled.

Previous Posts:

- March 2015: Portfolio Update.

- February 2015: Portfolio Update.

- January 2015: Portfolio Update.

- December 2014: Portfolio Update.

March 2015: Portfolio Update.

Nothing too much worth writing about in March, my portfolio having fallen by -0.92% with general election, Greece, economic growth concerns, and oil price and other commodity price falls. 

Specific to BAT and Imperial Tobacco is ongoing concern that the proposed merger between US peers Reynolds and Lorillard might be under threat (www.express.co.uk: MARKET REPORT: Shares fall in British American and Imperial Tobacco).

So down 0.92%, v. the FTSE 100's -2.5%.

Dividends were received from Microsoft, SSE, and BP. The latter payout benefitting from an increased holding after my top ups late last year.

			Forecast	1 month	YTD	51 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	953.00p	24.07%	2.50%	0.42%	9.54%	45.17%
Aviva	540.00p	13.64%	3.84%	0.19%	11.46%	49.26%
National Grid	865.00p	13.27%	5.17%	-2.48%	-5.78%	56.42%
BP	437.00p	9.49%	5.92%	-2.46%	6.33%	3.27%
Apple **	$124.43	9.15%	1.36%	0.84%	18.49%	130.48%
IG Group	709.00p	4.45%	4.47%	-3.01%	-1.39%	48.57%
Imperial Tobacco	2963.00p	2.90%	4.82%	-7.20%	4.48%	31.16%
William Hill	371.00p	2.95%	3.47%	-1.85%	2.34%	101.44%
BAT	3488.00p	2.31%	4.38%	-7.77%	-0.34%	3.99%
Vodafone	220.00p	2.10%	5.35%	-1.79%	-1.19%	-12.80%
Microsoft **	$40.66	1.97%	4.39%	-3.46%	-7.99%	53.17%
Banco Santander	504.00p	2.05%	2.67%	6.11%	-7.44%	-7.64%
General Electric **	$24.81	1.90%	3.16%	-0.62%	3.20%	71.07%
BAE Systems	524.00p	1.82%	3.99%	-1.69%	11.02%	58.79%
Barrat Dev.	529.00p	1.64%	4.28%	2.52%	12.31%	47.98%
SSE	1498.00p	1.44%	6.14%	-4.77%	-7.64%	22.29%
Verizon **	3279.52p	1.50%	3.85%	2.34%	9.27%	18.16%
Centrica	253.00p	1.11%	5.59%	3.69%	-9.32%	-23.70%
BG Group	829.00p	0.84%	2.37%	-13.47%	-4.16%	-36.03%
Cash		1.41%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.72%
				1 month	YTD	51 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 3 month gain  2235.05 -	2214.53			-0.92%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2214.53				5.95%
- 51 month gain 1264.20 -	2214.53					75.17%
- 63 month gain 1000.00 -	2214.53					121.45%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 3 month gain   6946.66 -	6773.04			-2.50%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6773.04				3.15%
- 51 month gain 5971.01 -	6773.04					13.43%
- 63 month gain 5412.88 -	6773.04					25.13%
Transactions:
16/03/2015	Div	Microsoft @ 17.6p per share (*)
20/03/2015	Div	Scottish & Southern @ 26.6p per share
27/03/2015	Div	BP @ 6.67p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.48284 as at 31/03/15
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.38102 as at 31/03/15

Chart wise the recent uptrend in 2015 has been broken but it remains above last years channel of consolidation (no returns!).

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So with the General Election looming, there appears to be some volatility ahead, particularly given concerns that there will be no clear majority, and/or Labour could return to govern hand in hand with the SNP.
Tough given that neither appear to have a recent track record with the UK's best interests at heart, more political ambitions fuelled by self interest.

Time will tell who will win out along with the realisation of currently perceived threats to various sectors of business: energy, construction, oil, and banking.

Good luck.

Related articles:
- www.express.co.uk: MARKET REPORT: Shares fall in British American and Imperial Tobacco

Previous Posts:
- February 2015: Portfolio Update.
- January 2015: Portfolio Update.
- December 2014: Portfolio Update.