November 2013: Portfolio Update.

Markets took a slight pause for breath again with heightened concerns over shadowy housing bubbles and the long wait for US Treasury guidance on the future trend for quantitative easing.

As a result the FTSE pulled back slightly by -1.2%, but my portfolio made a small gain of 1.09% with the help of Rolls-Royce gaining 7.39% and dividends from Morrison's, Centrica, Aviva, Apple, and RSA. 

I took a major decision to sell RSA given the company's second profit warning in as many weeks and news that the full year profits are now exposed to a black hole from the company's Irish division. 
My decision to sell here was triggered by an open ended concern over a wider write down, concerns over the dividend, and the potential for regulatory action.

So a short lived tenure in my portfolio for RSA has come to an end for the time being. So much for my attempt to top up my dividends following Aviva's cut last earlier in the year.

The table below still shows RSA, but at the selling price, and will be removed in my next update.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	35 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1235.00p	32.57%	1.78%	7.39%	41.39%	98.23%
National Grid	775.00p	13.60%	5.43%	-1.21%	10.24%	40.14%
Aviva	429.30p	10.06%	3.76%	-4.41%	15.09%	27.06%
Apple **	$556.07	6.05%	1.75%	4.36%	5.38%	33.32%
BP	482.00p	5.60%	4.83%	-0.15%	12.54%	6.40%
Vodafone	226.80p	4.54%	4.55%	1.02%	21.46%	19.80%
IG Group	585.00p	4.20%	4.08%	-4.65%	30.00%	22.59%
William Hill	385.60p	3.50%	3.04%	-3.82%	17.06%	109.36%
Imperial Tobacco	2324.00p	2.60%	4.99%	-0.21%	2.88%	2.88%
BAT	3261.00p	2.47%	4.42%	-5.09%	-2.78%	-2.78%
General Electric **	$26.66	2.11%	2.45%	-0.02%	25.50%	66.55%
Centrica	338.30p	1.69%	5.13%	-4.27%	1.41%	2.02%
BAE Systems	427.40p	1.70%	4.74%	-6.00%	26.86%	29.52%
Microsoft **	$38.13	1.91%	2.22%	5.74%	40.95%	30.14%
SSE	1327.00p	1.46%	6.65%	-6.29%	-6.42%	8.33%
Morrisons	265.50p	1.33%	4.88%	-5.72%	0.95%	-0.78%
BG Group	1248.50p	1.45%	1.41%	-1.96%	23.31%	-3.67%
RSA Ins.Grp	107.36p	1.15%	5.96%	-16.39%	-9.25%	-9.25%
Tesco	347.95p	1.11%	4.34%	-4.46%	3.56%	-12.78%
Cash		0.88%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.36%
				1 Month	YTD	35 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2060.17 -	2082.68			1.09%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	2082.68				26.64%
- 35 month gain 1264.20 -	2082.68					64.74%
- 47 month gain 1000.00 -	2082.68					108.27%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6731.43 -	6650.57			-1.20%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6650.57				12.76%
- 35 month gain 5971.01 -	6650.57					11.38%
- 47 month gain 5412.88 -	6650.57					22.87%
Transactions:
11/11/2013	Sell	RSA @ 107.36p
11/11/2013	Div	Morrisons @ 3.84p per share
15/11/2013	Div	Centrica @ 4.92p per share
15/11/2013	Div	Aviva @ 5.6p per share
18/11/2013	Div	Apple @ £1.5829 per share (est)
22/11/2013	Div	RSA @ 2.28p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6366 as at 30/11/13

And the chart:

Click to enlarge, close to return.

Quite exciting that the aforementioned market concerns aside, my portfolio has performed strongly in the year to date and is well placed for any year-end rally.

But even without that, I would be more than happy to lock in the current year to date performance of 26.64%.

And, we could be in recovery!

Earlier Posts:

- October 2013: Portfolio Update.
- September 2013: Portfolio Update.
- August 2013: Portfolio Update.
- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
- July 2013: Portfolio Update.

- June 2013: Portfolio Update.

- May 2013: Portfolio Update.

- 20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
- April 2013: Portfolio Update.
- March 2013: Portfolio Update.
- February 2013: Portfolio update.
- January 2013: Portfolio Update.
- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).

August 2013: Portfolio Update.

So markets continue to fluctuate through August ending in a monthly move of -3.14% in the FTSE100 and -2.22% in my own portfolio.

Lots of dividends flying in though including my big one from National Grid.
And, as discussed in my last post (July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).), I have now added new funds to the portfolio and this month recorded the purchases made using both these and existing portfolio funds.

In terms, of purchases, I've previously mentioned a top up to Apple (but was undecided about adding these in isolation), but I've also added:
- RSA following the saga of Aviva's cut dividend and uncertain prospects.
- Imperial Tobacco, a top up following the purchase earlier this year (April 2013: Portfolio Update.)
- British American Tobacco, my preferred sector candidate to Imperial Tobacco (April 2013: Portfolio Update.)
- BP a top up on weakness.

In the main you can probably guess that, with the exception of Apple, all are above average dividend payers with Imperial Tobacco, and BP having the most to gain should they stage a recovery.
Clearly I have also used the current market uncertainty as a window of opportunity for such as British American Tobacco.

Returning to my portfolio William Hill hit a speedbump as the threat of new UK taxation looms on the horizon to address offshore bases.
Most other shares wallowed with the markets as the threat of action against Syria increased.
But Vodafone rose as emerging rumours became confirmed that talks between Vodafone and Verizon Communications were ongoing over a deal on Verizon Wireless (Vodafone: "Deal or no deal" on Verizon Wireless!)

Following the deal, I've also topped up my holding in Vodafone which will show in my September Update.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	32 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1112.00p	31.23%	1.98%	-5.36%	27.30%	78.49%
National Grid	742.50p	13.88%	5.68%	-5.65%	5.62%	34.27%
Aviva	386.80p	9.65%	4.01%	4.26%	3.70%	14.48%
William Hill	415.20p	4.02%	2.83%	-14.74%	26.05%	125.44%
Apple **	$487.05	5.96%	1.99%	5.57%	-2.53%	23.33%
IG Group	568.00p	4.34%	4.18%	-1.73%	26.22%	19.03%
BP	446.20p	5.52%	5.29%	-1.06%	4.18%	-1.50%
General Electric **	$23.09	2.06%	2.83%	-7.20%	14.80%	52.34%
Centrica	385.90p	2.06%	4.50%	-1.30%	15.68%	16.38%
BAE Systems	435.10p	1.85%	4.66%	-2.44%	29.15%	31.85%
SSE	1563.00p	1.83%	5.65%	-0.76%	10.23%	27.59%
Microsoft **	$33.40	1.88%	2.46%	2.75%	30.40%	20.40%
Vodafone	206.25p	1.70%	4.97%	4.17%	33.54%	28.00%
Morrisons	290.20p	1.55%	4.40%	0.42%	10.34%	8.45%
BG Group	1227.00p	1.52%	1.46%	3.37%	21.19%	-5.32%
BAT	3255.00p	2.62%	4.45%	-2.96%	-2.96%	-2.96%
RSA Ins.Grp	118.60p	1.36%	5.40%	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Imperial Tobacco	2132.00p	2.54%	5.44%	-3.78%	-5.62%	-5.62%
Tesco	366.55p	1.24%	4.13%	-0.12%	9.09%	-8.11%
Cash		3.17%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.44%
				1 Month	YTD	32 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1999.55 -	1955.19			-2.22%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	1955.19				18.88%
- 32 month gain 1264.20 -	1955.19					54.66%
- 44 month gain 1000.00 -	1955.19					95.52%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6621.06 -	6412.93			-3.14%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6412.93				8.73%
- 32 month gain 5971.01 -	6412.93					7.40%
- 44 month gain 5412.88 -	6412.93					18.48%
Transactions:
28/03/2013	Buy	Apple @ £2.96149
	Div	Apple @ 169.89p per share
28/03/2013	Buy	RSA Insurance Group @ £1.16983
24/05/2013	Div	RSA Insurance @ 3.9p per share
07/08/2013	Div	Vodafone @ 6.92p per share
16/08/2013	Div	Imperial Tobacco @ 35.2p per share
19/08/2013	Div	Apple @ £1.6564 per share
21/08/2013	Div	National Grid @ 26.36p per share
22/07/2013	Buy	Imperial Tobacco @ £22.127
21/08/2013	Buy	Brit.Am.Tobacco @ £33.270977
22/08/2013	Buy	BP @ £4.36331
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.549644 as at 31/08/13

Looking at the chart it still looks like a rising trend albeit one that looks a little undecided at the moment as to where its next direction might be.
But with Syria, oil prices, uncertainty over quantitative easing and interest rates, its probably not too surprising.
But there are tentative signs of European recovery, and both the UK and US look stronger in their prospective recoveries, if data is to be believed.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

My portfolio is still below the mid May peak but it still seems right to consolidate things with a round  or two of dividends before once again looking towards future prospects and share prices.
My forecast yield has fallen quite a way over the last year but that is almost (you know who you are...Aviva!), entirely down to share price gains this year ahead of actual earnings being reported and catching up with speculation.

But despite some headwinds to weather I remain reasonably optimistic about the future and happy with the way things have gone so far with my portfolio.


Related Posts:
- Vodafone: "Deal or no deal" on Verizon Wireless!

- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
- July 2013: Portfolio Update.

- June 2013: Portfolio Update.

- Markets pause for breath!

- FTSE's fragile confidence

- May 2013: Portfolio Update.

- 20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
- April 2013: Portfolio Update.
- March 2013: Portfolio Update.
- February 2013: Portfolio update.
- January 2013: Portfolio Update.
- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).