In the month BP's second quarter reported higher replacement cost profits of $2.8bn (uk.webfg.com: bp-profit-surges-on-oil-price-recovery), ahead of analyst estimates ($2.7bn), and its first dividend increase since 2014, mostly driven by an increase in the price of Brent crude to $73/barrel from $55 in the previous year. Given the global instability this did not translate into a share price surge over the month.
BAT (uk.webfg.com: british-american-tobacco ) reported a first half fall in revenues from exchange rates and continuing falls in volume but did reiterate that "underlying earnings remained solid and on track for the full year".
BAT has led the way in July though
Galliford Try also reported (uk.webfg.com: galliford-try-issues-solid-year-end-update), with positive momentum in its objectives.
So with SSE leading the fallers (down 7.75%), and BAT leading the risers (9.69%), there is still lots of swings and volatility, which seem largely down to: the ongoing and escalation trade tariff war; a fast looming Brexit and sterling weakness; and the political instability, price caps and potential renationalisation of utilities that a Labour Government might bring.
SSE and National Grid being very much linked to the last element.
In my head, it feels that between the Trump era and the all party shambles that is Brexit, I'm probably taking a hit of 10% or more, and it remains to be seen if, when or how long this might take to recover.
Finally, there were additions to Galliford Try, Standard Life Aberdeen, and Vodafone, with the latter starting to sit heavily on me.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | All time | |||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||
| Lloyds | 62.38p | 24.72% | 5.32% | -1.06% | -8.35% | 1.03% | ||
| Aviva | 500.00p | 12.63% | 5.86% | -0.79% | -1.28% | 39.79% | ||
| National Grid | 813.30p | 11.88% | 5.81% | -2.99% | -6.76% | 68.05% | ||
| BP | 573.30p | 12.45% | 5.39% | -0.86% | 9.68% | 37.80% | ||
| Apple ** | $190.29 | 10.58% | 1.22% | 3.63% | 15.91% | 400.51% | ||
| BAT | 4201.00p | 2.78% | 4.80% | 9.69% | -16.28% | 25.24% | ||
| Imperial Brands | 2922.00p | 4.08% | 6.43% | 3.54% | -1.24% | 21.87% | ||
| Royal Dutch Shell | 2671.50p | 2.88% | 5.38% | -1.55% | 6.50% | 3.78% | ||
| Vodafone | 186.00p | 2.10% | 7.31% | 1.31% | -18.35% | -23.27% | ||
| SSE | 1250.00p | 1.20% | 7.80% | -7.75% | -5.30% | 8.61% | ||
| Galliford Try | 932.50p | 2.50% | 7.50% | 6.73% | 19.61% | 14.55% | ||
| Standard Chartered | 688.00p | 3.24% | 2.48% | -0.66% | -2.75% | -2.75% | ||
| Standard Life Aberdeen | 312.30p | 4.12% | 7.6% | -3.14% | -7.46% | -7.46% | ||
| Cash | 4.83% | 0.00% | ||||||
| 100.00% | 4.92% | |||||||
| 1 month | YTD | All time | ||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 2626.82 | 2633.40 | -0.20% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 2583.68 | 2633.40 | 1.44% | ||||||
| - 103 month gain 1000.00 | 2633.40 | 162.15% | ||||||
| Unit Price - £ | 2.63340 | (Starting price - £1) | ||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 7636.93 | 7678.20 | 1.46% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 7687.80 | 7678.20 | 0.79% | ||||||
| - 103 month gain 5412.88 | 7678.20 | 43.15% | ||||||
| Transactions: | ||||||||
| 23/07/2018 | Buy | Galliford Try @ 8.5218p per share | ||||||
| 23/07/2018 | Buy | Standard Life Aberdeen @ 346.31 | ||||||
| 23/07/2018 | Buy | Vodafone @ 187.46p per share | ||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | ||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 1.31 as at 31/07/2018 | ||||||||
| *** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.12967 as at 31/07/2018 | ||||||||
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| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
