May 2018: Portfolio Update.

May proved a month of musings and indecision before finally taking the plunge and offloading my stake in Berkeley Group in order to facilitate some new additions although these were also delayed as a widening choice proved a delaying factor.

As it was in the month, my portfolio improved by 4.04% ahead of the FTSE's 2.25% aided by a significant dividend contribution from Lloyd's, Aviva, BAT, and Apple.

Small additions were made to Imperial Brands, National Grid, and Vodafone.

Markets are proving volatile at the moment with a push and pull of potential interest rate increases and Brexit fallouts.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	63.21p	24.93%	5.36%	-2.24%	-7.13%	2.37%
Aviva	510.80p	12.85%	5.69%	-3.44%	0.85%	42.81%
Berkeley Group	4192.96p	11.86%	4.06%	2.97%	-0.10%	78.75%
National Grid	833.30p	12.12%	5.65%	-1.18%	-4.47%	73.82%
BP	576.30p	12.46%	5.10%	7.12%	10.25%	38.52%
Apple **	$186.87	10.19%	1.23%	19.26%	12.12%	384.15%
BAT	3869.00p	2.55%	5.27%	-3.25%	-22.90%	15.35%
Imperial Brands	2710.00p	3.77%	7.09%	2.66%	-8.40%	13.03%
Royal Dutch Shell	2677.00p	2.87%	5.11%	2.90%	6.72%	3.99%
Vodafone	191.82p	1.93%	6.67%	-9.08%	-17.71%	-23.11%
SSE	1367.50p	1.31%	6.90%	-0.98%	3.60%	18.82%
Galliford Try	962.50p	1.66%	7.45%	4.85%	32.24%	23.22%
Cash		1.51%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.89%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2531.24	2633.40			4.04%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2633.40				1.90%
- 101 month gain 1000.00	2633.40					163.34%
Unit Price - £	2.63340	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7509.30	7678.20			2.25%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7678.20				-0.12%
- 101 month gain 5412.88	7678.20					41.85%
Transactions:
09/05/2018	Div	BAT @ 48.80p per share
15/05/2018	Sell	Berkeley Group @ 4192.96p per share
17/05/2018	Div	Aviva @ 19.00p per share
21/05/2018	Div	Apple @ 40.98p per share
23/05/2018	Buy	Imp.Brands @ 2797.11p per share
23/05/2018	Buy	National Grid @ 891.95p per share
23/05/2018	Buy	Vodafone @ 200.22p per share
29/05/2018	Div	Lloyds @ 2.05p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 1.32994 as at 31/05/18
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.13619 as at 31/05/18

Click to enlarge, close to return.

May 2018: Dividend pipeline

So where do we sit with dividends in the pipeline at the moment?

Looking ahead:

                                              xD               Paid
National Grid @ 15.49p       23 Nov         10 Jan
Vodafone @ 4.84p               23 Nov         02 Feb
BAT @ 48.80p                      27 Dec         07 Feb 
SSE @ 28.4p                       18 Jan         16 Mar
Apple @ 63c                        12 Feb        15 Feb
Berkeley Group @ 56.75p  01 Mar        23 Mar
RDS 'B' @ 47c                     15 Feb        26 Mar
Imperial Brands @ 59.51p  22 Feb        29 Mar
BP @ 10c                             15 Feb        29 Mar
Galliford Try @ 28p             15 Mar        06 Apr
BAT @ 48.80p                      22 Mar        09 May
Aviva @ 19p                         05 Apr        17 May
Apple @ 73c                         14 May      17 May
Lloyds @ 2.05p                    19 Apr        29 May  
BP @ 10c                              10 May       22 Jun    
Imperial Brands @ 28.43p   24 May       29 Jun

I've retrospectively added the remainder of this year's payments received to complete the picture for 2018 so far.

With BAT, Aviva, Apple, and Lloyds due to pay out in May, May is shaping up to be a good month for dividends.
And June follows along nicely with BP and Imperial Brands.

Noticeable is the short turnaround, just 3 days, between ex dividend and paid dates for Apple shareholders v. the rest of my holdings in UK plc.

April Dividend Pipeline

So where do we sit with dividends in the pipeline at the moment?

Looking ahead:

                                              xD               Paid
SSE @ 28.4p                       18 Jan         16 Mar
Berkeley Group @ 56.75p  01 Mar        23 Mar
RDS 'B' @ 47c                     15 Feb        26 Mar
Imperial Brands @ 59.51p  22 Feb        29 Mar
BP @ 10c                             15 Feb        29 Mar
Galliford Try @ 28p             15 Mar        06 Apr
Aviva @ 19p                         05 Apr        17 May
Lloyds @ 2.05p                    19 Apr        29 May                      

Not much to be expected in April then with just a sole deposit from Galliford Try, but May looks to a good month with payouts from Lloyds and Aviva expected.

Recent reporting and progress: Rolls-Royce; Lloyds, Aviva.

An interesting few weeks of reporting with Rolls-Royce, Lloyds and Aviva coming back to the markets to report on progress.

Rolls-Royce in particular shot up more than 10% after reporting profits and cash-flow figures ahead of consensus expectations, as well as progress on its XWB engine program..
A definite feather in the cap of CEO Warren East following the series of profit warnings, and SFO investigations, that came thick and fast in the early stages of his appointment, a legacy of the previous anonymous leadership of his predecessors. 
The hard truths that followed have seen a plan of action by East that might soon find the company establish a new baseline after a series of cost cutting measures that has/will trim the groups headcount as well as its markets as it tries to once again reconnect with its core business technology to ensure investment and strategy are focused.

Despite the results and guidance for the next two years, the current rating still feels a little frothy and ahead of progress. The business is very much a long term one though and the success of the corrective strategy and return to its ratings equilibrium perhaps needs to be looked at with a minimum 5 year view (if that 5 year commitment data was publicly available), otherwise a leap of faith is required.

Back in February, another recovering giant, Lloyds also reported. Whereas R-R beat expectations, Lloyds came in slightly behind expectations.
But, results were still well received given the 20% increase to the dividend and a share buyback program (a pet hate of mine), being announced. PPI compensation is still a restraining factor in the bank but should now be starting to be less of an inertia as time moves forward.
Similar to the R-R story, since joining Lloyds CEO António Horta Osório has quietly gone about the business of addressing the bank's core markets , simplification, and dealing with regulatory fall-out, and after re-instating the dividend in 2015, the bank appears to be coming out of the other side of that transformation.
The shares initially improved by 2% following results.

Aviva also reported this week, and as with the 2 previous companies, R-R and Lloyds, a strategy of reducing cost, simplification, and reviewing its focus and presence in markets has taken place under CEO Mark Wilson.
Profits were up and, perhaps more importantly, capital surplus was well ahead of the Solvency II ratio giving the company excess capital to deploy.
As with Lloyds, this has seen the company increase its dividend and announce a share buyback program.
Although still generally positive the news was less well received and the shares initially fell but went on to recover those falls and subsequently advance as more positive reviews appear.

You will no doubt be aware that Rolls-Royce was my biggest player, and but for a difficult period and bad timing for me to come back into the news-flow, would probably still be my biggest holding due to my belief in the long term profitability of the aero-engine business and the current duopoly in long range markets. 
I did actually hold both of those companies albeit with GE a much smaller weighting in my portfolio.
As things stand, decisions were made and Rolls-Royce is no longer a holding, and its position as the largest holding has been taken by Lloyds.
Aviva is also a long term presence in my portfolio and currently the second largest holding behind Lloyds.
Together, these 2 financial service providers form a large (risky?), 42% weighting in my portfolio.

January 2015: Portfolio Update.

Well, well, 2015 it is, and the first update of the year has heralded a new high for my portfolio after treading water for the whole of 2014.
A 3.89% gain in the month was enough to push past the previous high seen on the 31 December 2013, helped by the dividends from National Grid, Rolls-Royce, and a lesser one from GE.
Some satisfying capital gains came from Imperial Tobacco, Apple, Aviva, and BAT, which were offset by a -10.01 fall in Microsoft (following disappointing financials), and Banco Santander (following a hatchet job and about turn on its dividend policy).

3.89% bettered the FTSE100's 2.79%, and since inception the reinvestment of dividends has helped my portfolio advance almost 5 times as much as the FTSE100.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	49 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	891.00p	22.95%	2.72%	2.41%	2.41%	35.72%
National Grid	936.00p	14.64%	4.65%	1.95%	1.95%	69.26%
Aviva	528.00p	13.60%	3.73%	8.98%	8.98%	45.94%
BP	424.00p	9.39%	6.08%	3.16%	3.16%	0.20%
Apple **	$117.16	8.64%	1.45%	9.82%	9.82%	113.63%
Vodafone	235.00p	2.29%	4.78%	5.55%	5.55%	-6.86%
Verizon **	3034.49p	1.41%	4.12%	1.10%	1.10%	9.34%
IG Group	726.00p	4.64%	3.99%	0.97%	0.97%	52.14%
William Hill	377.00p	3.05%	3.43%	4.00%	4.00%	104.70%
Imperial Tobacco	3124.00p	3.12%	4.51%	10.16%	10.16%	38.29%
BAT	3752.00p	2.53%	4.13%	7.20%	7.20%	11.86%
General Electric **	$23.89	1.83%	3.12%	-2.18%	-2.18%	62.15%
Microsoft **	$40.40	1.96%	2.52%	-10.01%	-10.01%	49.81%
BAE Systems	508.00p	1.80%	4.08%	7.63%	7.63%	53.94%
Centrica	294.00p	1.31%	4.81%	5.38%	5.38%	-11.34%
SSE	1609.00p	1.58%	5.54%	-0.80%	-0.80%	31.35%
BG Group	887.00p	0.92%	2.31%	2.54%	2.54%	-31.56%
Barrat Dev.	458.00p	1.45%	3.10%	-2.76%	-2.76%	28.12%
Banco Santander	450.00p	1.87%	3.09%	-17.36%	-17.36%	-17.54%
Cash		0.99%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.66%
				1 Month	YTD	49 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2090.17-	2161.51			3.89%
- YTD gain         2090.17-	2161.51				3.89%
- 49 month gain 1264.20 -	2161.51					71.77%
- 61 month gain 1000.00 -	2161.51					117.15%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6566.09 -	6749.40			2.79%
- YTD gain        6566.09 -	6749.40				2.79%
- 49 month gain 5971.01 -	6749.40					13.04%
- 61 month gain 5412.88 -	6749.40					24.69%
Transactions:
06/01/2015	Div	Rolls-Royce @ 9p per share
09/01/2015	Div	National Grid @ 14.71p per share
29/01/2015	Div	GE @ 22c per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.50635 as at 31/01/15
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.33498 as at 31/01/15

Chartwise, I have again extended the scale to show the new high.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

The new high obviously gives me a little boost and encouragement after a disappointing 2014, and against a troubled global and political backdrop, is a nice way to start the year.
I think I do need to sit down and review the merits of each though.
A series of dividend cuts has been disappointing and, as with my exit from supermarkets last year, I still have a number of long term holdings that remain disappointing.
Strange that 2 of them, BG and Centrica, are both elements of the old British Gas, the last element being National Grid.
William Hill has also struggled to return to its ebullient highs, and then there is IG which I hope can maintain/consolidate its current highs.
Banco Santander is under review, after an about turn on its dividend policy, the very reason I had watched but eventually bought it for.
And finally, despite its contribution, I am still little uncomfortable holding tobacco stocks. 
My final reasoning being that successive Governments have little will to back up the health message, given the tax cash cow that tobacco revenue contributes to its coffers.
However, I am still not comfortable with it.

Those concerns aside, it has been an encouraging start to the year, but with UK elections in 2015, the road could be a winding one, with the added concern over Europe in addition to the political footballs of energy, tobacco, and austerity.

NB. 04 March 15. Amended by the addition of previously omitted dividends from R-R and National Grid which has improved overall gains and amended the individual holdings as a proportion of the overall portfolio.

Previous Posts:
- December 2014: Portfolio Update.

December 2014: Portfolio Update.

So that was 2015, now consigned to history and with it the disappointment of my first loss in the 5 years since I put a base on this portfolio and the discipline of measuring its performance against the FTSE100.

Strangely it has managed to just pip the FTSE100 at the last, and end the year -2.3%, as opposed to the FTSE100 finishing - 2.71% down.

So thats a full 12 months since my portfolio's high and a full 12 months put down to consolidation.

Although, there has been some changes notably, the all too late selling of Tesco and Morrisons; new additions in Barrat Developments and Banco Santander, and top ups to BP, Aviva, and R-R.

There was also the addition of Verizon as a result of Vodafone's dealmaking.

At 9 individual trades, thats slightly more than my typical 7/8 per annum, but includes an aborted attempt to put in place a regular purchase plan on Barrat, which ended up as 2 trades for what would have been 1 normal trading tranche.

So December proved to be a roller coaster with the early part of the month seeming to signal the start of an end of year rally, then with the bottom falling out of things, I think I was down more than 6% for the year before a late rally brought my portfolio back to finish the year year -2.3% (-0.66% in December).

The FTSE100 suffered a little worse to end the year -2.71%, after a -2.33% fall in December.

My portfolio benefitting from a few dividends from BAE, Microsoft, William Hill, and BP.

As briefly alluded to, I also added to my existing holdings in BP and Aviva which I hope will yield additional dividends and gains in the year ahead and beyond that.

I have to express my disappointment in the Supermarket sector's performance as my thoughts were that, as it provided one of our most basic staples, that my investments would actually be forever holdings but its seems that poor management and strategy can outweigh and undermine even those basic strengths.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	48 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	870.00p	23.28%	2.78%	3.26%	-30.48%	32.53%
National Grid	918.10p	14.92%	4.74%	-1.28%	16.51%	66.02%
Aviva	484.50p	12.97%	4.06%	-4.63%	7.09%	33.92%
BP	411.00p	9.46%	6.27%	0.78%	-6.49%	-2.87%
Apple **	$110.38	8.18%	1.53%	-6.84%	45.88%	94.52%
Vodafone	222.65p	2.25%	5.05%	-4.83%	-11.75%	-11.75%
Verizon **	3001.41p	1.45%	4.02%	-7.18%	8.14%	8.14%
IG Group	719.00p	4.78%	4.03%	6.13%	16.72%	50.67%
William Hill	362.50p	3.05%	3.57%	8.21%	-9.80%	96.82%
Imperial Tobacco	2836.00p	2.94%	4.97%	-4.19%	21.30%	25.54%
BAT	3500.00p	2.45%	4.43%	-7.76%	8.09%	4.35%
General Electric **	$25.27	1.95%	2.95%	-4.24%	-4.49%	65.77%
Microsoft **	$46.45	2.26%	2.19%	-2.48%	31.47%	66.47%
BAE Systems	472.00p	1.74%	4.39%	-1.89%	8.51%	43.03%
Centrica	279.00p	1.29%	6.37%	-1.97%	-19.76%	-15.86%
SSE	1622.00p	1.65%	5.49%	-1.10%	18.39%	32.41%
BG Group	865.00p	0.93%	2.37%	-3.91%	-33.33%	-33.26%
Barrat Dev.	471.00p	1.55%	3.02%	2.32%	31.76%	31.76%
Banco Santander	544.50p	2.35%	6.46%	-5.71%	-0.22%	-0.22%
Cash		0.54%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.91%
				1 Month	YTD	48 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain  2104.11 -	2090.17			-0.66%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2090.17				-2.30%
- 48 month gain 1264.20 -	2090.17					65.33%
- 60 month gain 1000.00 -	2090.17					109.02%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6722.62 -	6566.09			-2.33%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6566.09				-2.71%
- 48 month gain 5971.01 -	6566.09					9.97%
- 60 month gain 5412.88 -	6566.09					21.30%
Transactions:
01/12/2014	Div	BAE @ 8.2p per share
05/12/2014	Div	William Hill @ 4.89p per share
10/12/2014	Buy	BP @ 407.39p per share
15/12/2014	Div	Microsoft @ 16.50p per share
15/12/2014	Buy	BP @ 387.71p per share
16/12/2014	Buy	Aviva @ 464.00p per share
19/12/2014	Div	BP @ 5.8p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5586 as at 31/12/14
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.28769 as at 31/12/14

Click to enlarge, close to return.

The chart serves to illustrate the bobbing along pattern of consolidation, that follows the fact that my portfolio failed to break the all time high set at the end of December 2013, so lets hope that 2015 will bring better fortune.

And whilst, January is already bringing its ups and downs, I am comforted by the fact that my portfolio is still within touching distance of new highs.
Dividends from R-R and National Grid are due and will hopefully help to offset the financial machinations and change of strategy affecting Banco Santander.

So with that summarised it just leaves my wishing you all a happy and prosperous 2015!


Previous Posts:
- November 2014: Portfolio Update.
- October 2014: Portfolio Update.
- September 2014: Portfolio Update
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.