Showing posts with label Barratt Developments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barratt Developments. Show all posts

Saturday, 16 May 2015

Contemplations and watchlists.

Frustrating few weeks watching and waiting, and telling myself to be patient.
But when does patience drift into fear and apathy?

Having worked hard this last few years to change behaviours and be patient, I've tried to wait for opportunities to buy targets, or at least for markets to pause for a few days, rather than jump in as soon as I have a mind to.
But, the last few weeks of volatility (could be said for this year so far even), and then break out news is proving frustrating for a number of candidates which have reacted to election forecasts and then election results with a smattering of reporting news thrown in for good measure.

So the companies I'm currently watching then: 
Lloyds @ 89p, 52 week low - 71.92p;
BHP Billiton 1533p, 52 week low - 1276p; 
Bellway @ 2230p, 52 week low - 1352p;
Telford Homes @ 485p, 52 week low - 267.25p;
Telecom Plus @ 831p, 52 week low - 752.5p

added to long running companies like:
Standard Chartered @ 1051.5p, 52 week low - 881p;
VW @ 215.3 Euros, 52 week low - 150.7 Euros, and 1 GBP: 1.38 Euro.
Google @ $546.49, 52 week low - $497.06, and £1: $1.57

Lloyds is very much back in the spotlight with a resumption of dividends, the hive-off of TSB, and the Governments reducing stake. The strategy of the latter seeming to be a saved up pressure to reduce the share price by force of numbers.
However, the recent trading statement ahead of the election reversed recent pullbacks with a 10% gain on the day, and this momentum continued after the election outcome.
But there could be momentum over the next few years as the company continues to "recover" and return to a norm of tangible returns in the form of a dividend,

BHP is off its lows this year and has an upcoming split off of lower value assets into a separate trading company to contend with but with the double impact of a floundering oil price and reduced commodity demand and prices, now might be a good entry point if you can believe that industrial demand for commodities and oil will return.

Bellway and Telford, are both in construction and stem from my frustration at not being able to build a stake in Barratts. Again, the potential of a different election outcome served to pull these companies back, but they have subsequently turned around with 10% gains.

Telecom Plus is still a quandary for me trading mainly through the Utilities Warehouse brand, it has retreated in recent months following disappointments but if the long term story is still intact then this could be a good entry point to a long term dividend play.

Standard Chartered is all about recovering its mojo. It has the obvious significant exposure to the Far East and emerging market, but has a slightly battered reputation to repair.
A new board is being put together but questions remain about the balance sheet and if a fund raising/dividend cut is still required. 
The potential dividend cut being the pause on me, although if I had gone in at £8-£9 then I don't think I would be concerned but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

VW is another niggle as I seem to have watched it from 100 Euros to 175 Euros, pulling back to 130 and 150 Euros, before breaking 200 Euros. Again it appears to be pulling back and sits at 215 Euros.
Doubts over the Euro have held me back and currently I'm trying to understand if the current strength of sterling might give me a possible entry now that it appears to be 10% in sterling's favour.

Google might, or might not, seem an odd one, particularly as it has never paid a dividend, however, I have started to adopt the long term view of thinking which companies will still be around us in the future.
At some stage I expect Google will begin to pay a dividend, its just not close enough to predict currently.

And, as with utility companies, and the long running concerns over pricing and profits etc. I know that its likely I'm always going to need or be a customer of certain companies, so I might as well be a shareholder and for a small upfront investment, benefit year on year, in much the same way as if they were co-operatives.
If Google, or any other company, is going to be servicing you and your family, and your society, and the world over a lifetime, and be profitable, then they seem to be prime candidates for a long term, low maintenance portfolio regardless of economic cycles.

So it seems to be a difficult judgement (and one I'm struggling with), being patient but then recognising when the price range is acceptable against the long term story rather than trying to get THE best price.

Saturday, 9 May 2015

April 2015: Portfolio Update

So with April coming to a close, and early May bringing the UK General Elections for 2015, and after months of poll data suggesting various permutations of a hung parliament that had threatened to produce a long drawn out period of uncertainty, the outcome has instead been a more decisive shock and awe result.

UK markets and indices have zigged and zagged with increasing volatility as the May 7th date came closer, and then surged, along with sterling, after the unexpectedly clean result produced a party majority.

In line with that, or in spite of it, the FTSE 100 has still managed to create new all time highs in 2015 and breach the near mythical promised land beyond 7000.

And, more satisfyingly my own portfolio has also continued to achieve new highs this year, with April's close marking a total 129.83% gain in the 5 years and 4 months since I started measuring and working with this portfolio.

Anyway the last month has seen a bounce in Microsoft (+15.52%), after a better than expected quarterly update (Interesting end to the week!), and R-R (+9.76%), after its own well received news of a new CEO and a record order.
Elsewhere,  BG Group surged 42.58%, following a confirmed and agreed bid from Royal Dutch Shell (BG Group shelling out?).

BP has also basked in the searchlight for potential bid targets, with a gain of +7.55%, as well as being buoyed by a recovering oil price.

Imperial Tobacco has also benefited from analyst upgrades ahead of a well recieved trading update in May.

Apple initially surged, in aftermarket trading, to new highs of circa $134, after posting another good set of pre- Apple Watch quarterly results, but have since pulled back with the wider sentiment in American markets (Interesting end to the week!).

William Hill also suffered after an update included the impact of a bad week of football results continuing to hold back performance (Interesting end to the week!).

Other holdings, BAE, SSE, Centrica, Barratt, BAT, along with Imperial Tobacco and William Hill, were also hampered with pre-election concerns.

As mentioned in my previous post reviewing 2014 dividends 2014 Dividends Profiled., April is a poor dividend month for my portfolio with, as suggested, the only receipt coming from GE.

So in a difficult volatile month ahead of May's General Election, my portfolio managed a gain of +3.78% v. +2.77% by the FTSE100, making +9.96% for the year to date.

Its worth noting that sterling strengthened against the dollar too, rising to $1.536 from $1.483, which does impact recent gains in my US$ holdings: Apple, GE, Microsoft, and Verizon, as they convert back into sterling.

I have also added new funds, and made an additional purchase in BG Group ahead of the deal with Royal Dutch Shell.
By using a unit price, the funds go in at nil gain.
Its a slight gamble given the timescale and planned completion next year but, with my expectation being that it will go through I feel there is a premium to be gained by topping up in this way (BG Group shelling out?), and looking to find myself with a holding in the higher yielding Royal Dutch Shell.
Clearly I'm also expecting a higher oil price eventually for both Royal Dutch Shell and BP to maintain dividends and renew share price gains.


Forecast
1 month
YTD
52 mth
Price
% holding
Div. yield
% gain
% gain
% gain
R-R
1046.00p
24.89%
2.27%
9.76%
20.23%
59.34%
Aviva
527.00p
12.55%
4.01%
-2.41%
8.77%
45.66%
National Grid
879.00p
12.71%
5.09%
1.62%
-4.26%
58.95%
BP
470.00p
9.62%
5.56%
7.55%
14.36%
11.07%
Apple **
$125.15
8.37%
1.36%
-2.87%
15.08%
123.86%
IG Group
737.00p
4.36%
4.25%
3.95%
2.50%
54.44%
Imperial Tobacco
3192.00p
2.94%
4.40%
7.73%
12.55%
41.30%
William Hill
361.00p
2.70%
3.51%
-2.70%
-0.41%
96.01%
BAT
3592.00p
2.24%
4.35%
2.98%
2.63%
7.09%
Vodafone
231.00p
2.08%
5.10%
5.00%
3.75%
-8.44%
Microsoft **
$48.64
2.14%
2.09%
15.52%
6.29%
76.94%
Banco Santander
488.00p
1.87%
2.78%
-3.17%
-10.38%
-10.57%
General Electric **
$27.08
1.89%
2.90%
5.40%
8.77%
80.31%
BAE Systems
508.00p
1.67%
4.12%
-3.05%
7.63%
53.94%
Barratt Dev.
519.00p
1.52%
4.45%
-1.89%
10.19%
45.19%
SSE
1547.00p
1.40%
5.92%
3.27%
-4.62%
26.29%
Verizon **
3284.86p
1.41%
3.75%
0.16%
9.44%
18.36%
Centrica
255.00p
1.05%
4.92%
0.79%
-8.60%
-23.10%
BG Group
1182.00p
2.71%
1.89%
42.58%
36.65%
-3.83%
Cash
1.89%
0.00%
100.00%
3.50%
1 month
YTD
52 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2214.53 - 2298.27
3.78%
- YTD gain        1644.62 - 2298.27
9.96%
- 52 month gain 1264.20 - 2298.27
81.80%
- 64 month gain 1000.00 - 2298.27
129.83%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6773.04 - 6960.63
2.77%
- YTD gain        5897.81 - 6960.63
6.01%
- 52 month gain 5971.01 - 6960.63
16.57%
- 64 month gain 5412.88 - 6960.63
28.59%
Transactions:
10/04/2015 Charges
10/04/2015 Buy Funds added @ 2.215 (April Index close)
10/04/2015 Buy BG @ 407.39p per share
29/04/2015 Div General Electric @ 12.72p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.53553 as at 30/04/15
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.36933 as at 30/04/15

As mentioned last month, I have also had to increase the scale to accommodate new highs, which present a satisfying picture.

Click to enlarge, close to return.
Looking ahead, the General Election (as we now know), did continue to affect markets with surges and pull backs, and, a further surge following the unexpectedly quick and decisive outcome.
I'm sure that won't be the end of it though as more questions and uncertainty continue to show up on the horizon such as the future of Greece in Europe, the future of the UK in Europe, and the future of the UK even? 
And this on top of the usual questions of Chinese demand and global economic growth, relationships with Russia, and the Middle East.
It really doesn't ever end, does it?

But, I am also watching a few shares (I have missed a few too it seems), and hope to make further purchases in the coming months.

Good luck.


Sunday, 11 January 2015

December 2014: Portfolio Update.

So that was 2015, now consigned to history and with it the disappointment of my first loss in the 5 years since I put a base on this portfolio and the discipline of measuring its performance against the FTSE100.
Strangely it has managed to just pip the FTSE100 at the last, and end the year -2.3%, as opposed to the FTSE100 finishing - 2.71% down.

So thats a full 12 months since my portfolio's high and a full 12 months put down to consolidation.
Although, there has been some changes notably, the all too late selling of Tesco and Morrisons; new additions in Barrat Developments and Banco Santander, and top ups to BP, Aviva, and R-R.
There was also the addition of Verizon as a result of Vodafone's dealmaking.

At 9 individual trades, thats slightly more than my typical 7/8 per annum, but includes an aborted attempt to put in place a regular purchase plan on Barrat, which ended up as 2 trades for what would have been 1 normal trading tranche.

So December proved to be a roller coaster with the early part of the month seeming to signal the start of an end of year rally, then with the bottom falling out of things, I think I was down more than 6% for the year before a late rally brought my portfolio back to finish the year year -2.3% (-0.66% in December).
The FTSE100 suffered a little worse to end the year -2.71%, after a -2.33% fall in December.

My portfolio benefitting from a few dividends from BAE, Microsoft, William Hill, and BP.

As briefly alluded to, I also added to my existing holdings in BP and Aviva which I hope will yield additional dividends and gains in the year ahead and beyond that.

I have to express my disappointment in the Supermarket sector's performance as my thoughts were that, as it provided one of our most basic staples, that my investments would actually be forever holdings but its seems that poor management and strategy can outweigh and undermine even those basic strengths.


Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast
1 month
YTD
48 mth
Price
% holding
Div. yield
% gain
% gain
% gain
R-R
870.00p
23.28%
2.78%
3.26%
-30.48%
32.53%
National Grid
918.10p
14.92%
4.74%
-1.28%
16.51%
66.02%
Aviva
484.50p
12.97%
4.06%
-4.63%
7.09%
33.92%
BP
411.00p
9.46%
6.27%
0.78%
-6.49%
-2.87%
Apple **
$110.38
8.18%
1.53%
-6.84%
45.88%
94.52%
Vodafone
222.65p
2.25%
5.05%
-4.83%
-11.75%
-11.75%
Verizon **
3001.41p
1.45%
4.02%
-7.18%
8.14%
8.14%
IG Group
719.00p
4.78%
4.03%
6.13%
16.72%
50.67%
William Hill
362.50p
3.05%
3.57%
8.21%
-9.80%
96.82%
Imperial Tobacco
2836.00p
2.94%
4.97%
-4.19%
21.30%
25.54%
BAT
3500.00p
2.45%
4.43%
-7.76%
8.09%
4.35%
General Electric **
$25.27
1.95%
2.95%
-4.24%
-4.49%
65.77%
Microsoft **
$46.45
2.26%
2.19%
-2.48%
31.47%
66.47%
BAE Systems
472.00p
1.74%
4.39%
-1.89%
8.51%
43.03%
Centrica
279.00p
1.29%
6.37%
-1.97%
-19.76%
-15.86%
SSE
1622.00p
1.65%
5.49%
-1.10%
18.39%
32.41%
BG Group
865.00p
0.93%
2.37%
-3.91%
-33.33%
-33.26%
Barrat Dev.
471.00p
1.55%
3.02%
2.32%
31.76%
31.76%
Banco Santander
544.50p
2.35%
6.46%
-5.71%
-0.22%
-0.22%
Cash
0.54%
0.00%
100.00%
3.91%
1 Month
YTD
48 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain  2104.11 -  2090.17
-0.66%
- YTD gain        1644.62 - 2090.17
-2.30%
- 48 month gain 1264.20 - 2090.17
65.33%
- 60 month gain 1000.00 - 2090.17
109.02%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6722.62 - 6566.09
-2.33%
- YTD gain        5897.81 - 6566.09
-2.71%
- 48 month gain 5971.01 - 6566.09
9.97%
- 60 month gain 5412.88 - 6566.09
21.30%
Transactions:
01/12/2014 Div BAE @ 8.2p per share
05/12/2014 Div William Hill @ 4.89p per share
10/12/2014 Buy BP @ 407.39p per share
15/12/2014 Div Microsoft @ 16.50p per share
15/12/2014 Buy BP @ 387.71p per share
16/12/2014 Buy Aviva @ 464.00p per share
19/12/2014 Div BP @ 5.8p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5586 as at 31/12/14
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.28769 as at 31/12/14




Click to enlarge, close to return.

The chart serves to illustrate the bobbing along pattern of consolidation, that follows the fact that my portfolio failed to break the all time high set at the end of December 2013, so lets hope that 2015 will bring better fortune.

And whilst, January is already bringing its ups and downs, I am comforted by the fact that my portfolio is still within touching distance of new highs.
Dividends from R-R and National Grid are due and will hopefully help to offset the financial machinations and change of strategy affecting Banco Santander.

So with that summarised it just leaves my wishing you all a happy and prosperous 2015!


Previous Posts:
- November 2014: Portfolio Update.
- October 2014: Portfolio Update.
- September 2014: Portfolio Update
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.