December 2014: Portfolio Update.

So that was 2015, now consigned to history and with it the disappointment of my first loss in the 5 years since I put a base on this portfolio and the discipline of measuring its performance against the FTSE100.

Strangely it has managed to just pip the FTSE100 at the last, and end the year -2.3%, as opposed to the FTSE100 finishing - 2.71% down.

So thats a full 12 months since my portfolio's high and a full 12 months put down to consolidation.

Although, there has been some changes notably, the all too late selling of Tesco and Morrisons; new additions in Barrat Developments and Banco Santander, and top ups to BP, Aviva, and R-R.

There was also the addition of Verizon as a result of Vodafone's dealmaking.

At 9 individual trades, thats slightly more than my typical 7/8 per annum, but includes an aborted attempt to put in place a regular purchase plan on Barrat, which ended up as 2 trades for what would have been 1 normal trading tranche.

So December proved to be a roller coaster with the early part of the month seeming to signal the start of an end of year rally, then with the bottom falling out of things, I think I was down more than 6% for the year before a late rally brought my portfolio back to finish the year year -2.3% (-0.66% in December).

The FTSE100 suffered a little worse to end the year -2.71%, after a -2.33% fall in December.

My portfolio benefitting from a few dividends from BAE, Microsoft, William Hill, and BP.

As briefly alluded to, I also added to my existing holdings in BP and Aviva which I hope will yield additional dividends and gains in the year ahead and beyond that.

I have to express my disappointment in the Supermarket sector's performance as my thoughts were that, as it provided one of our most basic staples, that my investments would actually be forever holdings but its seems that poor management and strategy can outweigh and undermine even those basic strengths.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	48 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	870.00p	23.28%	2.78%	3.26%	-30.48%	32.53%
National Grid	918.10p	14.92%	4.74%	-1.28%	16.51%	66.02%
Aviva	484.50p	12.97%	4.06%	-4.63%	7.09%	33.92%
BP	411.00p	9.46%	6.27%	0.78%	-6.49%	-2.87%
Apple **	$110.38	8.18%	1.53%	-6.84%	45.88%	94.52%
Vodafone	222.65p	2.25%	5.05%	-4.83%	-11.75%	-11.75%
Verizon **	3001.41p	1.45%	4.02%	-7.18%	8.14%	8.14%
IG Group	719.00p	4.78%	4.03%	6.13%	16.72%	50.67%
William Hill	362.50p	3.05%	3.57%	8.21%	-9.80%	96.82%
Imperial Tobacco	2836.00p	2.94%	4.97%	-4.19%	21.30%	25.54%
BAT	3500.00p	2.45%	4.43%	-7.76%	8.09%	4.35%
General Electric **	$25.27	1.95%	2.95%	-4.24%	-4.49%	65.77%
Microsoft **	$46.45	2.26%	2.19%	-2.48%	31.47%	66.47%
BAE Systems	472.00p	1.74%	4.39%	-1.89%	8.51%	43.03%
Centrica	279.00p	1.29%	6.37%	-1.97%	-19.76%	-15.86%
SSE	1622.00p	1.65%	5.49%	-1.10%	18.39%	32.41%
BG Group	865.00p	0.93%	2.37%	-3.91%	-33.33%	-33.26%
Barrat Dev.	471.00p	1.55%	3.02%	2.32%	31.76%	31.76%
Banco Santander	544.50p	2.35%	6.46%	-5.71%	-0.22%	-0.22%
Cash		0.54%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.91%
				1 Month	YTD	48 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain  2104.11 -	2090.17			-0.66%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2090.17				-2.30%
- 48 month gain 1264.20 -	2090.17					65.33%
- 60 month gain 1000.00 -	2090.17					109.02%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6722.62 -	6566.09			-2.33%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6566.09				-2.71%
- 48 month gain 5971.01 -	6566.09					9.97%
- 60 month gain 5412.88 -	6566.09					21.30%
Transactions:
01/12/2014	Div	BAE @ 8.2p per share
05/12/2014	Div	William Hill @ 4.89p per share
10/12/2014	Buy	BP @ 407.39p per share
15/12/2014	Div	Microsoft @ 16.50p per share
15/12/2014	Buy	BP @ 387.71p per share
16/12/2014	Buy	Aviva @ 464.00p per share
19/12/2014	Div	BP @ 5.8p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5586 as at 31/12/14
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.28769 as at 31/12/14

Click to enlarge, close to return.

The chart serves to illustrate the bobbing along pattern of consolidation, that follows the fact that my portfolio failed to break the all time high set at the end of December 2013, so lets hope that 2015 will bring better fortune.

And whilst, January is already bringing its ups and downs, I am comforted by the fact that my portfolio is still within touching distance of new highs.
Dividends from R-R and National Grid are due and will hopefully help to offset the financial machinations and change of strategy affecting Banco Santander.

So with that summarised it just leaves my wishing you all a happy and prosperous 2015!


Previous Posts:
- November 2014: Portfolio Update.
- October 2014: Portfolio Update.
- September 2014: Portfolio Update
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.

November 2014: Portfolio Update.

So heading into Christmas and the year end milestone, my portfolio finds itself still in negative territory for the year having hit its recorded all time high at the end of last year.

A difficult year or one of consolidation where it has, to date, ranged from -5.60% down to -0.34% down in the year.

The truth is probably somewhere between the two, and a mixture, as some sectors and company specifics have clearly under-performed with R-R the notable impact upon my portfolio. 

Pleasing then that despite a -32.68% performance in the year to date of R-R, my portfolio is just -1.64% down against its all time high, leaving it in with a chance of finishing in positive territory should there be a year-end rally in markets and sentiment.

It does feel like I have taken my eye of things a little this year, or at least stepped back from things, and coupled with my longer term strategy, I have to admit to being a little slow in topping up my portfolio with new or existing holdings which leaves me with around 7.5% cash. 

But, there has been one addition this month, that being Banco Santander. Its main attraction being its dividend (less 21% Spanish withholding tax), but also for a long running recovery in its national, european, and south american markets.
There has been quite a lot discussed around the dividend but it has been maintained through a difficult time, and has a little support through the option of a scrip in place of cash. Which, as long as the share price has support, helps reduce the liability of actually paying cash out of assets, albeit with a dilution of entitlement due to an increase in shares in issue.

Anyway back to the update and, as mentioned my portfolio is still down, by -1.64% in the year to date, despite a 2.22% increase in the month.
This is still down on the resurgent FTSE which recorded a 2.69% increase to finish -0.39% down

Dividends came in from Verizon, Aviva, Centrica, Apple, IG, and Barrat's, so it was a useful month for dividends with Aviva, and IG the notable contributors.
There were also some useful share price gains around the 10% mark from Apple, Vodafone, IG, Imperial Tobacco, and Banco.
Along with a disappointing drop in BG of -13%, as it took a one-two hit on pay for its new CEO, and a continuing fall in the oil price affecting the value of its assets.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	47 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	842.50p	22.39%	3.02%	-0.06%	-32.68%	28.34%
National Grid	930.00p	15.02%	4.66%	0.43%	18.02%	68.17%
Aviva	508.00p	10.95%	3.78%	-2.50%	12.96%	50.35%
BP	420.20p	4.49%	5.93%	-6.41%	-13.90%	-7.24%
Apple **	$118.93	8.72%	1.40%	12.49%	56.59%	108.80%
Vodafone	233.95p	2.35%	4.86%	12.86%	-7.27%	-7.27%
Verizon **	3233.62p	1.55%	3.73%	2.84%	16.51%	16.51%
IG Group	677.50p	4.47%	4.22%	12.73%	9.98%	41.97%
William Hill	335.00p	2.80%	3.79%	-7.07%	-16.65%	81.89%
Imperial Tobacco	2960.00p	3.05%	4.74%	9.18%	26.60%	31.03%
BAT	3794.50p	2.64%	4.15%	6.98%	17.19%	13.13%
General Electric **	$26.49	2.02%	2.66%	4.84%	-0.26%	73.12%
Microsoft **	$47.81	2.31%	2.01%	4.02%	34.81%	70.70%
BAE Systems	481.10p	1.76%	4.34%	4.88%	10.60%	45.79%
Centrica	284.60p	1.31%	6.38%	-5.92%	-18.15%	-14.17%
SSE	1640.00p	1.66%	5.48%	2.56%	19.71%	33.88%
BG Group	900.20p	0.96%	2.27%	-13.44%	-30.62%	-30.54%
Barrat Dev.	460.30p	1.51%	3.09%	9.91%	28.77%	28.77%
Banco Santander	577.50p	2.47%	6.24%	8.76%	5.83%	5.83%
Cash		7.57%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.47%
				1 Month	YTD	47 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 m gain          2058.40 -	2104.11			2.22%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2104.11				-1.64%
- 47 m gain       1264.20 -	2104.11					66.44%
- 59 m gain       1000.00 -	2104.11					110.41%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 m gain         6546.70 -	6722.62			2.69%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6722.62				-0.39%
- 47 m gain       5971.01 -	6722.62					12.59%
- 59 m gain       5412.88 -	6722.62					24.20%
Transactions:
03/11/2014	Buy	Banco Santander @ 545.71p per share
05/11/2014	Div	Verizon @ 29.12p per share
15/11/2014	Div	Centrica @ 5.10p per share
17/11/2014	Div	Aviva @ 5.85p per share
17/11/2014	Div	Apple @ £1.7586 per share (est)
18/11/2014	Div	IG Group @ 22.4p per share
20/11/2014	Div	Barrat Dev. @ 7.1p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5645 as at 28/11/14
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.25643 as at 28/11/14 Click to enlarge, close to return.

Chartwise is much the same as it has been albeit with a much stronger trend with both indices bouncing along in a channel just below the 2013 year-end position.

But also appearing to maintain some link to the longer term trend. 

I am not conversant with technical analysis but the trend and the channel would appear to be narrowing and forming some kind of pinch point which I'm sure the more proficient technical analysts would suggest could mark a break-out of the current channel but that could be one of of two ways, up or down.

Hopefully, if the long term trend is intact then this could be a break upwards but we shall have to wait and see.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So December to come and the end of 2014. December has already seen a little movement up, which would be nice if it can continue and give me a positive year, but if it doesn't then I will hope for opportunities to reduce my cash holdings as we start to look towards 2015.

Previous Posts:
- October 2014: Portfolio Update.
- September 2014: Portfolio Update
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.