OK, so where do we go from here, in bringing things up to date, it feels like my portfolio has stagnated a little to the point where I seem to be tracking the FTSE's performance.
But, this is probably more a case of patience required and continuing to play the same long game that I have tried to follow this last 9 years.
That being said, some changes have been required and that step has made me a little more impatient and drawn into looking at my portfolio through a different set of eyes.
There are a few candidates that I have alluded to and, in turn these have opened up fresh channels with more candidate but as things stand, I need to divest some holdings in order to invest in anything new.
I've managed to start a small holding in a recovery share though, Galliford Try.
Companies like Standard Chartered also come to mind which in some respects is following a similar path to recovery that Lloyds has followed, but it is a little further behind.
I think it also has greater prospects than Lloyds given its extended international presence particularly in the Far East where it has historically been very strong.
I seem to have been an onlooker to Standard Chartered over the last 10 years or so without ever feeling the opportunity to invest has presented itself.
In looking at banking and finance, Barclays is also receiving a lot of analyst coverage for a similar turning point on its road to recovery.
Lloyds and Aviva hold a substantial and influential part of my portfolio with no plans to change.
Across the pond, I have long had a hankering for Disney shares given the ongoing ability to recycle existing content to new generations whilst also producing new content. The addition of Marvel and potentially Fox only adds to this content arsenal. In turn, all of this vast library or content is recycled in a different way through its theme parks, and potential new streaming service.
Amongst current holdings, I have been adding to Imperial Brands and National Grid, and it seems a missed opportunity not to have added to Imperial Brands more substantially.
BAT has also pulled back with Imperial Brands and Phillip Morris, but after its own big purchase last year of Reynolds, it still has lots of opportunity to increase margins and profits.
I also wonder if there should be a future proof scenario, which can now be much more focused than the tech bubble of 2000 in that the surviving giants are amongst us. What will a list of technology shares like Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla, Apple etc. etc. look like in another 10, 20. 30 years and more?
I have already successfully held Apple, and Microsoft. Cisco was less successful though.
I have considered offloading Vodafone to raise funds. For me its transformation isn't clear or fast enough. But, the sudden rush by brokers to reiterate forecasts of 20-30% share price gains, and the Liberty global asset purchases, has given me pause, so I will wait a little longer.
A further sale of Apple has also crossed my mind with the dollar strengthening again. Whilst dividends and cash piles continue to grow, the company is heavily dependent on a possibly maturing smartphone market (which it transformed), but, if it is maturing, I'm not sure where Apple can go next. It seems not to have brought many new things to market when so much has been hinted and promised e.g. Apple TV.
Instead it continues to play cat and mouse with analysts over quarterly sales and estimates but with the recent chapter revealing a record Q2 and new share price highs, I'm still holding. Perhaps the repatriation of profits held abroad will trigger something more.
I would like to see Apple rated on a multiple at least on a par with Google (renamed Alphabet), which is only moderately higher but would see a substantially higher share price.
SSE remains a small holding in my portfolio, weakened by political uncertainty but still delivering strongly on its dividend.
A strengthening oil price is working wonders on a recovering BP and Royal Dutch Shell
Berkeley is my current consideration, having delivered a 76% share price gain and a further 8.26% from dividends it has become a strong substantial component of my portfolio, supported by a goodly number of hold forecasts.
However, do those hold forecasts combined with an uncertain and cyclical housing market give me enough conviction to sell some or all my holding to recycle elsewhere.
Does Berkeley's concentration on London and the South create its own niche, or does this exposure to London have its potential pitfalls given the recent climate?
So that is the conundrum, a sale of Berkeley could allow me to add to my Galliford Try holding to keep a construction and housing exposure with a potentially better opportunity in recovery, and/or give me the funds to add a stakes in other companies currently attracting me with Standard Chartered, Barclays or Imperial Brands leading my list.
Showing posts with label Vodafone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vodafone. Show all posts
Sunday, 13 May 2018
Monday, 19 March 2018
Musings: Vodafone and Direct Line.
Vodafone @ 199.62p as at 16:00 19/03/18
Direct Line @ 385p as at 16:00 19/03/18
Not sure why, but just considering a swap out of Vodafone for Direct Line, the general insurer.
Vodafone has been a good investment for me delivering around half of its original investment, more than 49%, back in dividends alone which with all of the capital restructuring and spin-offs helps balance things, overall gain on Vodafone falling to 29.56% as a result.
However, that isn't the whole story as part of that capital reduction was spun off into an investment in Verizon which itself recorded a total 53.32% gain (9.76% in dividends and 43.56% in share price gains).
Combining the 2 has given me an estimated 47.60% gain overall.
But, its becoming a little dull waiting for the new Vodafone to deliver on its strategy, whilst continuing to pay dividends over and above earnings per share, from the cash from the sale of its Verizon Wireless stake.
This imbalance looks set to continue for a few years to come which makes me question whether I have an investment in a viable business. Thats probably a little unfair, with the real question being what the business will eventually look like.
The current share price has surged a couple of times by 20% plus of its current level and analysts forecast higher still. But, I have lost the vision of why it might actually justify that higher level if/when it comes to fruition.
Similarly, one of the drivers is speculation of a deal to be done with Liberty media over overlapping assets, but cost cutting aside, this does little to confirm to me that the eventual business might have the cashflow and profits to maintain a growing dividend.
It has been gently increased year upon year, and it must be planned to meet with the eventual financial performance of the envisioned entity.
So, I'm sat on my hands and waiting for jam tomorrow with a little jam today. Will the business transform or will the world and profits be a different commodity when it eventually gets there. Is it transforming to survive in this new world or lead enough to profit.
And then along comes Direct Line into my sphere of vision. A general insurance business benefiting from recent premium increases announcing a 44% increase to the dividends (incl. special)
I haven't had the best success with insurance company investments, Aviva is long running, and RSA didn't quite work out. But they are a notable favourite of Warren Buffett for the ongoing cashflow that they maintain in collected premiums which form a float from which to make payouts, should they be required.
As it is, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns Berkshire Hathaway Re., General Re., Geico along with more smaller investments.
From Barclays (6 Feb 18: Barclays upgrades Direct Line expects it to be highlight of results season):
"We believe investors should view the UK motor sector as an attractive, defensive, income sector. At this part of the cycle, we believe investors should continue to invest in the sector, but we do have a preference for those insurers…that focus on value over volume, are not reliant on policy growth and have attractive valuations and dividend yields."
Direct Line @ 385p as at 16:00 19/03/18
Not sure why, but just considering a swap out of Vodafone for Direct Line, the general insurer.
Vodafone has been a good investment for me delivering around half of its original investment, more than 49%, back in dividends alone which with all of the capital restructuring and spin-offs helps balance things, overall gain on Vodafone falling to 29.56% as a result.
However, that isn't the whole story as part of that capital reduction was spun off into an investment in Verizon which itself recorded a total 53.32% gain (9.76% in dividends and 43.56% in share price gains).
Combining the 2 has given me an estimated 47.60% gain overall.
But, its becoming a little dull waiting for the new Vodafone to deliver on its strategy, whilst continuing to pay dividends over and above earnings per share, from the cash from the sale of its Verizon Wireless stake.
This imbalance looks set to continue for a few years to come which makes me question whether I have an investment in a viable business. Thats probably a little unfair, with the real question being what the business will eventually look like.
The current share price has surged a couple of times by 20% plus of its current level and analysts forecast higher still. But, I have lost the vision of why it might actually justify that higher level if/when it comes to fruition.
Similarly, one of the drivers is speculation of a deal to be done with Liberty media over overlapping assets, but cost cutting aside, this does little to confirm to me that the eventual business might have the cashflow and profits to maintain a growing dividend.
It has been gently increased year upon year, and it must be planned to meet with the eventual financial performance of the envisioned entity.
So, I'm sat on my hands and waiting for jam tomorrow with a little jam today. Will the business transform or will the world and profits be a different commodity when it eventually gets there. Is it transforming to survive in this new world or lead enough to profit.
And then along comes Direct Line into my sphere of vision. A general insurance business benefiting from recent premium increases announcing a 44% increase to the dividends (incl. special)
I haven't had the best success with insurance company investments, Aviva is long running, and RSA didn't quite work out. But they are a notable favourite of Warren Buffett for the ongoing cashflow that they maintain in collected premiums which form a float from which to make payouts, should they be required.
As it is, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns Berkshire Hathaway Re., General Re., Geico along with more smaller investments.
From Barclays (6 Feb 18: Barclays upgrades Direct Line expects it to be highlight of results season):
"We believe investors should view the UK motor sector as an attractive, defensive, income sector. At this part of the cycle, we believe investors should continue to invest in the sector, but we do have a preference for those insurers…that focus on value over volume, are not reliant on policy growth and have attractive valuations and dividend yields."
At 371.5p at the time of publishing:
"Barclays said Direct Line has a total expected return of 19% over the next 12 months."
So, I'm holding Vodafone with its forecast:
- double digit earnings per share for the next 3 years,
- a high PE of 21 falling slightly to 17
- a 6.6% dividend forecast to be 47% higher than eps falling to 17% higher
- the more optimistic brokers estimating between 25% and 50% gains in the share price
Direct Line:
- single digit earnings per share for the next 2 years
- a middling PE of 12 times falling slightly. I say middling as its higher than multi product life assurer Aviva with 9 times and lower than peer group insurer, Admiral with 16 times.
- a forecast 7.6% yield that is 92% of earnings or 1.08 times covered. Not always the best comparison but a datum nonetheless.
- the upside estimates a much lesser 4 to 17%
Not a straight forward like for like comparison as they are both very different beasts in very different industries.
Not a straight forward like for like comparison as they are both very different beasts in very different industries.
And not all clear cut, but more a view on a high dividend with a speculative vision v. a high dividend and probable cash cow.
If it can execute the vision then Vodafone should deliver a better combined return in the long term whereas Direct Line is probably just a steadier income stream.
They both have threats of course, Vodafone might not deliver in the new world as the industry costs become more commoditised, particularly under competitor pressure. There is also the ongoing investment costs in infrastructure or auction licenses, or even new markets e.g recent announcements of working with Samsung on smart home devices.
Direct Line is more a view on big hits from natural disasters, or regulation to the industry.
Perhaps neither should be in my portfolio, and I should search out something more balanced between growth and income (one leading to the other in an ideal investment).
Tuesday, 19 May 2015
Additional News to the post: Vodafone "off the hook"?
FTSE100 @ 6990.91, +22.04 (+0.32%)
Vodafone @ 226.3p, -7.8p (-3.33%)
Some additional news re. analysts reactions to Vodafone's results, sharecast.com: Vodafone's Project Spring fails to deliver bounce for Nomura and SocGen
Helps to explain the pull back in the shares today although it still seems confusing given comments such as:
"beating consensus forecasts for the final three months of the year."
"The telecoms giant's 7% decline in EBITDA, though expected, disappointed analysts who had hoped for more of a boost from the first year of its Project Spring programme."
"Beating consensus", and "though expected", would seem to be confirming comments to support the results but then its all undermined in this particular summary that a "hoped for ..... boost from the first year of its Project Spring program.", would justify a company valuation.
We can all hope can't we?
I guess the one justification is that consensus and an individual analyst's view (as in these 2 brokers), aren't quite the same thing.
Previous post:
- Vodafone "off the hook"?
Related article links:
- www.sharecast.com: Vodafone's Project Spring fails to deliver bounce for Nomura and SocGen
- www.sharecast.com: FTSE 100 movers: BHP Billiton extends losses, Land Securities surges on higher dividend
Vodafone @ 226.3p, -7.8p (-3.33%)
Some additional news re. analysts reactions to Vodafone's results, sharecast.com: Vodafone's Project Spring fails to deliver bounce for Nomura and SocGen
Helps to explain the pull back in the shares today although it still seems confusing given comments such as:
"beating consensus forecasts for the final three months of the year."
"The telecoms giant's 7% decline in EBITDA, though expected, disappointed analysts who had hoped for more of a boost from the first year of its Project Spring programme."
"Beating consensus", and "though expected", would seem to be confirming comments to support the results but then its all undermined in this particular summary that a "hoped for ..... boost from the first year of its Project Spring program.", would justify a company valuation.
We can all hope can't we?
I guess the one justification is that consensus and an individual analyst's view (as in these 2 brokers), aren't quite the same thing.
Previous post:
- Vodafone "off the hook"?
Related article links:
- www.sharecast.com: Vodafone's Project Spring fails to deliver bounce for Nomura and SocGen
- www.sharecast.com: FTSE 100 movers: BHP Billiton extends losses, Land Securities surges on higher dividend
Vodafone "off the hook"?
Always entertaining to see how valuations react to news, in this case its Vodafone.
After a year of seismic change, the shares have held up well albeit moving in a large range.
However, the last few months has seen some momentum a midst positive comments from analysts about the company's chances of returning to organic growth.
In its results announcement today the company has, in fact reported that the fourth quarter saw its service revenues return to organic growth, albeit by a figure of 0.1%, a figure thats we're also being told actually beat consensus forecasts! (sharecast.com: Vodafone returns to organic growth as data demand soars).
And yet, even in a market showing positive for the day, the share price has actually fallen, by an amount that seems greater than the normal day to day movements in Vodafone.
FTSE 100 @ 6999.60, +30.73 (+0.44%)
Vodafone @ 227.1p, -7p (-2.99%), as at 9:24 am
So that's a 3% move against market sentiment, and running in the opposite direction to results beating consensus!
The company announced a dividend of 7.62p (+2%), but doesn't go ex dividend until 7th June, and appear to have made a strategic statement to grow it.
There's cash on the balance sheet, and capex spending (and inversely debt and cashflow), appears to be in line with previous communications including Project Spring.
From a different view, I would agree that the valuation seems high when based on measures such as p/e which suggests that it has been supported by the prospect of a 5% dividend and the potential recovery in its main markets, and the investment in Project Spring.
So that being the case, that its currently supported by its dividend, European recovery, and Project Spring, it seems to me that today's results, and confirmation of progress, should have been better received than with a fall against the market?
Always interesting, and entertaining then but, in the short term at least, rarely logical or understandeable.
As ever, it continues to confirm (for me at least), the need to take a longer term view than the day to day industry that surrounds the financial markets.
Related article links:
- sharecast.com: Vodafone returns to organic growth as data demand soars
- www.vodafone.com: For Investors
- www.vodafone.com: Vodafone announces results for the year ended 31 March 2015
- www.vodafone.com: Preliminary results For the year ended 31 March 2015
Earlier posts:
- Vodafone: "Deal or no deal" on Verizon Wireless!
After a year of seismic change, the shares have held up well albeit moving in a large range.
However, the last few months has seen some momentum a midst positive comments from analysts about the company's chances of returning to organic growth.
In its results announcement today the company has, in fact reported that the fourth quarter saw its service revenues return to organic growth, albeit by a figure of 0.1%, a figure thats we're also being told actually beat consensus forecasts! (sharecast.com: Vodafone returns to organic growth as data demand soars).
And yet, even in a market showing positive for the day, the share price has actually fallen, by an amount that seems greater than the normal day to day movements in Vodafone.
FTSE 100 @ 6999.60, +30.73 (+0.44%)
Vodafone @ 227.1p, -7p (-2.99%), as at 9:24 am
So that's a 3% move against market sentiment, and running in the opposite direction to results beating consensus!
The company announced a dividend of 7.62p (+2%), but doesn't go ex dividend until 7th June, and appear to have made a strategic statement to grow it.
There's cash on the balance sheet, and capex spending (and inversely debt and cashflow), appears to be in line with previous communications including Project Spring.
From a different view, I would agree that the valuation seems high when based on measures such as p/e which suggests that it has been supported by the prospect of a 5% dividend and the potential recovery in its main markets, and the investment in Project Spring.
So that being the case, that its currently supported by its dividend, European recovery, and Project Spring, it seems to me that today's results, and confirmation of progress, should have been better received than with a fall against the market?
Always interesting, and entertaining then but, in the short term at least, rarely logical or understandeable.
As ever, it continues to confirm (for me at least), the need to take a longer term view than the day to day industry that surrounds the financial markets.
Related article links:
- sharecast.com: Vodafone returns to organic growth as data demand soars
- www.vodafone.com: For Investors
- www.vodafone.com: Vodafone announces results for the year ended 31 March 2015
- www.vodafone.com: Preliminary results For the year ended 31 March 2015
Earlier posts:
- Vodafone: "Deal or no deal" on Verizon Wireless!
Monday, 9 March 2015
February 2015: Portfolio Update.
New all time highs in February, for both myself and the FTSE100, with both indexes managing 2.92% gains in the month.
A reasonable month for dividends with payments received from Vodafone, Banco Santander, Verizon, Apple, Imperial Tobacco, and IG.
However, it was disappointing to see a significant fall of 17% in a significant utility, Centrica, which as the old British Gas has around 50% of the UK market.
And, despite their use as a cheap political shot across the bows, aren't utilities supposed to be safe?
It has been a long term holding, but I have to say that, even accounting for dividends, Centrica has been hugely disappointing as an investment, and it will need to significantly improve its prospects following this dividend cut.
Curious to see 2 elements of the old British Gas: BG Group; and Centrica, now in the dog house of my portfolio, and in danger of being culled.
So, new all time highs make for a satisfying chart!
Fingers crossed I will be extending the height of the scales again soon.
OK so 2015 has started well, which seems a little curious given the unknown future for Greece within Europe, and for different reasons, Britain's future in Europe. A Grexit and a Brexit?
More imminently, the dangers of a hung parliament or Labour majority in the upcoming General Election will, I'm sure, create turbulence across the UK economy, until the unknowns become answered.
Either way, I've never been one to guess or try to reposition my portfolio one way or another. Individual opportunities but not the whole. And inevitably, once the dust has settled, we might be asking ourselves what the fuss was all about?
Previous Posts:
- January 2015: Portfolio Update.
- December 2014: Portfolio Update.
A reasonable month for dividends with payments received from Vodafone, Banco Santander, Verizon, Apple, Imperial Tobacco, and IG.
However, it was disappointing to see a significant fall of 17% in a significant utility, Centrica, which as the old British Gas has around 50% of the UK market.
And, despite their use as a cheap political shot across the bows, aren't utilities supposed to be safe?
It has been a long term holding, but I have to say that, even accounting for dividends, Centrica has been hugely disappointing as an investment, and it will need to significantly improve its prospects following this dividend cut.
Curious to see 2 elements of the old British Gas: BG Group; and Centrica, now in the dog house of my portfolio, and in danger of being culled.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | |||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 50 mth | ||||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | ||||
| R-R | 949.00p | 23.75% | 2.51% | 6.51% | 9.08% | 44.56% | |||
| Aviva | 539.00p | 13.49% | 3.85% | 2.08% | 11.25% | 48.98% | |||
| National Grid | 887.00p | 13.48% | 5.04% | -5.24% | -3.39% | 60.40% | |||
| BP | 448.00p | 9.64% | 5.78% | 5.66% | 9.00% | 5.87% | |||
| Apple ** | $128.46 | 8.99% | 1.32% | 6.99% | 17.50% | 128.55% | |||
| IG Group | 731.00p | 4.54% | 4.34% | 0.69% | 1.67% | 53.18% | |||
| Imperial Tobacco | 3193.00p | 3.10% | 4.47% | 2.21% | 12.59% | 41.34% | |||
| William Hill | 378.00p | 2.97% | 3.40% | 0.27% | 4.28% | 105.24% | |||
| BAT | 3782.00p | 2.48% | 4.04% | 0.80% | 8.06% | 12.75% | |||
| Vodafone | 224.00p | 2.12% | 5.25% | -4.68% | 0.61% | -11.22% | |||
| Microsoft ** | $43.85 | 2.02% | 4.24% | 5.91% | -4.69% | 58.66% | |||
| Banco Santander | 475.00p | 1.92% | 2.83% | 5.56% | -12.76% | -12.96% | |||
| General Electric ** | $25.99 | 1.89% | 3.02% | 6.15% | 3.84% | 72.13% | |||
| BAE Systems | 533.00p | 1.84% | 3.92% | 4.92% | 12.92% | 61.52% | |||
| Barrat Dev. | 516.00p | 1.59% | 4.39% | 12.66% | 9.55% | 44.35% | |||
| SSE | 1573.00p | 1.50% | 5.85% | -2.24% | -3.02% | 28.41% | |||
| Verizon ** | 3204.43p | 1.45% | 3.78% | 5.60% | 6.76% | 15.46% | |||
| Centrica | 244.00p | 1.06% | 5.80% | -17.01% | -12.54% | -26.42% | |||
| BG Group | 958.00p | 0.97% | 2.05% | 8.00% | 10.75% | -26.08% | |||
| Cash | 1.22% | 0.00% | |||||||
| 100.00% | 3.68% | ||||||||
| 1 month | YTD | 50 mth | |||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | |||||||||
| - 1 month gain 2161.51 - | 2235.05 | 2.92% | |||||||
| - YTD gain 1644.62 - | 2235.05 | 6.93% | |||||||
| - 50 month gain 1264.20 - | 2235.05 | 76.79% | |||||||
| - 62 month gain 1000.00 - | 2235.05 | 123.50% | |||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | |||||||||
| - 1 month gain 6749.40 - | 6946.66 | 2.92% | |||||||
| - YTD gain 5897.81 - | 6946.66 | 5.80% | |||||||
| - 50 month gain 5971.01 - | 6946.66 | 16.34% | |||||||
| - 62 month gain 5412.88 - | 6946.66 | 28.34% | |||||||
| Transactions: | |||||||||
| 04/02/2015 |
Div
| Vodaphone @ 3.60p per share | |||||||
| 06/02/2015 |
Div
| Banco Santander @ 8.70p per share | |||||||
| 06/02/2015 |
Div
| Verizon @ 30.98p per share | |||||||
| 16/02/2015 |
Div
| Apple @ 25.53p per share | |||||||
| 17/02/2015 |
Div
| Imp.Tobacco @ 89.30p per share | |||||||
| 27/02/2015 |
Div
| IG Group @ 5.75p per share | |||||||
| Notes: | |||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | |||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5438 as at 28/02/15 | |||||||||
| *** Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax | |||||||||
| **** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.37889 as at 28/02/15 | |||||||||
So, new all time highs make for a satisfying chart!
Fingers crossed I will be extending the height of the scales again soon.
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
OK so 2015 has started well, which seems a little curious given the unknown future for Greece within Europe, and for different reasons, Britain's future in Europe. A Grexit and a Brexit?
More imminently, the dangers of a hung parliament or Labour majority in the upcoming General Election will, I'm sure, create turbulence across the UK economy, until the unknowns become answered.
Either way, I've never been one to guess or try to reposition my portfolio one way or another. Individual opportunities but not the whole. And inevitably, once the dust has settled, we might be asking ourselves what the fuss was all about?
Previous Posts:
- January 2015: Portfolio Update.
- December 2014: Portfolio Update.
Sunday, 11 January 2015
December 2014: Portfolio Update.
So that was 2015, now consigned to history and with it the disappointment of my first loss in the 5 years since I put a base on this portfolio and the discipline of measuring its performance against the FTSE100.
Strangely it has managed to just pip the FTSE100 at the last, and end the year -2.3%, as opposed to the FTSE100 finishing - 2.71% down.
So thats a full 12 months since my portfolio's high and a full 12 months put down to consolidation.
Although, there has been some changes notably, the all too late selling of Tesco and Morrisons; new additions in Barrat Developments and Banco Santander, and top ups to BP, Aviva, and R-R.
There was also the addition of Verizon as a result of Vodafone's dealmaking.
At 9 individual trades, thats slightly more than my typical 7/8 per annum, but includes an aborted attempt to put in place a regular purchase plan on Barrat, which ended up as 2 trades for what would have been 1 normal trading tranche.
So December proved to be a roller coaster with the early part of the month seeming to signal the start of an end of year rally, then with the bottom falling out of things, I think I was down more than 6% for the year before a late rally brought my portfolio back to finish the year year -2.3% (-0.66% in December).
The FTSE100 suffered a little worse to end the year -2.71%, after a -2.33% fall in December.
My portfolio benefitting from a few dividends from BAE, Microsoft, William Hill, and BP.
As briefly alluded to, I also added to my existing holdings in BP and Aviva which I hope will yield additional dividends and gains in the year ahead and beyond that.
I have to express my disappointment in the Supermarket sector's performance as my thoughts were that, as it provided one of our most basic staples, that my investments would actually be forever holdings but its seems that poor management and strategy can outweigh and undermine even those basic strengths.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | |||||||||
Forecast
|
1 month
|
YTD
|
48 mth
| ||||||
Price
|
% holding
|
Div. yield
|
% gain
|
% gain
|
% gain
| ||||
R-R
| 870.00p |
23.28%
|
2.78%
|
3.26%
|
-30.48%
|
32.53%
| |||
National Grid
| 918.10p |
14.92%
|
4.74%
|
-1.28%
|
16.51%
|
66.02%
| |||
Aviva
| 484.50p |
12.97%
|
4.06%
|
-4.63%
|
7.09%
|
33.92%
| |||
BP
| 411.00p |
9.46%
|
6.27%
|
0.78%
|
-6.49%
|
-2.87%
| |||
Apple **
| $110.38 |
8.18%
|
1.53%
|
-6.84%
|
45.88%
|
94.52%
| |||
Vodafone
| 222.65p |
2.25%
|
5.05%
|
-4.83%
|
-11.75%
|
-11.75%
| |||
Verizon **
| 3001.41p |
1.45%
|
4.02%
|
-7.18%
|
8.14%
|
8.14%
| |||
IG Group
| 719.00p |
4.78%
|
4.03%
|
6.13%
|
16.72%
|
50.67%
| |||
William Hill
| 362.50p |
3.05%
|
3.57%
|
8.21%
|
-9.80%
|
96.82%
| |||
Imperial Tobacco
| 2836.00p |
2.94%
|
4.97%
|
-4.19%
|
21.30%
|
25.54%
| |||
BAT
| 3500.00p |
2.45%
|
4.43%
|
-7.76%
|
8.09%
|
4.35%
| |||
General Electric **
| $25.27 |
1.95%
|
2.95%
|
-4.24%
|
-4.49%
|
65.77%
| |||
Microsoft **
| $46.45 |
2.26%
|
2.19%
|
-2.48%
|
31.47%
|
66.47%
| |||
BAE Systems
| 472.00p |
1.74%
|
4.39%
|
-1.89%
|
8.51%
|
43.03%
| |||
Centrica
| 279.00p |
1.29%
|
6.37%
|
-1.97%
|
-19.76%
|
-15.86%
| |||
SSE
| 1622.00p |
1.65%
|
5.49%
|
-1.10%
|
18.39%
|
32.41%
| |||
BG Group
| 865.00p |
0.93%
|
2.37%
|
-3.91%
|
-33.33%
|
-33.26%
| |||
Barrat Dev.
| 471.00p |
1.55%
|
3.02%
|
2.32%
|
31.76%
|
31.76%
| |||
Banco Santander
| 544.50p |
2.35%
|
6.46%
|
-5.71%
|
-0.22%
|
-0.22%
| |||
Cash
|
0.54%
|
0.00%
| |||||||
100.00%
|
3.91%
| ||||||||
1 Month
|
YTD
|
48 mth
| |||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | |||||||||
| - 1 month gain 2104.11 - | 2090.17 |
-0.66%
| |||||||
| - YTD gain 1644.62 - | 2090.17 |
-2.30%
| |||||||
| - 48 month gain 1264.20 - | 2090.17 |
65.33%
| |||||||
| - 60 month gain 1000.00 - | 2090.17 |
109.02%
| |||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | |||||||||
| - 1 month gain 6722.62 - | 6566.09 |
-2.33%
| |||||||
| - YTD gain 5897.81 - | 6566.09 |
-2.71%
| |||||||
| - 48 month gain 5971.01 - | 6566.09 |
9.97%
| |||||||
| - 60 month gain 5412.88 - | 6566.09 |
21.30%
| |||||||
| Transactions: | |||||||||
| 01/12/2014 | Div | BAE @ 8.2p per share | |||||||
| 05/12/2014 | Div | William Hill @ 4.89p per share | |||||||
| 10/12/2014 | Buy | BP @ 407.39p per share | |||||||
| 15/12/2014 | Div | Microsoft @ 16.50p per share | |||||||
| 15/12/2014 | Buy | BP @ 387.71p per share | |||||||
| 16/12/2014 | Buy | Aviva @ 464.00p per share | |||||||
| 19/12/2014 | Div | BP @ 5.8p per share | |||||||
Notes:
| |||||||||
* US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
| |||||||||
** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5586 as at 31/12/14
| |||||||||
*** Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
| |||||||||
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.28769 as at 31/12/14
| |||||||||
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
The chart serves to illustrate the bobbing along pattern of consolidation, that follows the fact that my portfolio failed to break the all time high set at the end of December 2013, so lets hope that 2015 will bring better fortune.
And whilst, January is already bringing its ups and downs, I am comforted by the fact that my portfolio is still within touching distance of new highs.
Dividends from R-R and National Grid are due and will hopefully help to offset the financial machinations and change of strategy affecting Banco Santander.
So with that summarised it just leaves my wishing you all a happy and prosperous 2015!
Previous Posts:
- November 2014: Portfolio Update.
- October 2014: Portfolio Update.
- September 2014: Portfolio Update
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)