Showing posts with label Cisco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cisco. Show all posts

Monday, 16 July 2012

How is my Globally Diversified Technology, Growth and Hedge portfolio getting on?

Thought I would take a quick look at my "Globally Diversified Technology, Growth and Hedge portfolio which currently consists of Apple, Microsoft and General Electric.
Of course it isn't really a separate portfolio, more a branch of the strategy, as all 3 investments reside in my portfolio (June 2012: Portfolio Update.).

It has been a mixture of fortunes since its inception with a clear runaway success in Apple being followed by investments in Microsoft, Cisco, and more recently General Electric.
Cisco in particular led me on a roller coaster of multiple promises and disappointments which "eventually" spurred me to get rid. 

But the decision was not fully made until a more attractive replacement was found in General Electric (August 2011: Portfolio Update.).

Thankfully this decision appears to be justifying itself with GE's subsequent performance and dividend payouts which has seen it put on 33.01%.

Having used Friday's closing prices this isn't a formal month end analysis but this is how each investment currently stands.





Capital
Divs

Total
Current Port. holdings
Price

% gain
% gain

% gain
Apple ** $604.97
220.51% 0.00%
220.51%
Microsoft ** $29.39
22.25% 4.29%
26.54%
General Electric ** $19.77
30.34% 2.67%
33.01%







Former Port. holdings





Cisco ***



$15.59



-27.76%



0.47%



-27.29%


61.35%








Notes: 
*       US Dividends adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**     Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.555 as at 12/07/12
***   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.633 as at 30/08/11







So the current investments do look to be justifying their inclusion but as with any other investment its not just a case of picking an obvious winner from their market position, as Cisco has shown.
Cisco remains a leader in its field and should be an obvious beneficiary of the anticipated investment required to maintain and increase data carrying capacity for smarthphones et al.
Unfortunately, reined in spending and hard chasing by rivals to catch up, has hit the company's margins in recent years when it appears to have failed to innovate and adapt to clients changing needs and budgetary constraints during a period of global economic woe.

Apple of course, has been a huge success but it remains to be seen if they can maintain anything resembling recent performance given that it is up against an army of competitors with Samsung and Google leading the pack.
Steve Jobs untimely passing has also seen the elevation of Tim Cook to CEO and an announcement that the company will this year resume paying a dividend.

Microsoft remains Microsoft. the company has matured into a cash cow on the back of its Windows OS and Office Suite, but the company has struggled to stay in touch with each emerging generation and innovate beyond PC's.
It has had recent success in XBox and its Kinect system which has shown it can challenge the industry incumbents in Sony and Nintendo.
But it has struggled to establish a foothold in smartphones and tablets although there is still hope given the critical acclaim for its latest incarnation and the possibility that it might yet take control of Nokia's smartphone division.
Similarly Windows 8 is readying for launch which will show how well the company understands tablet computing with its intuitive and tactile touchscreen experience.

GE is also a recovering industrial giant that makes things with a hugely diverse spread of products and resources. 

The company has significantly streamlined and restructured following the "credit crunch" in order to reduce reliance and capital requirements from its GE Capital cash cow.
GE Capital itself is also fast recovering and ready to pay dividends to its parent company.
Energy, Infrastructure, and Medical Instruments are also part of the portfolio as well as Aerospace where the company is the No 1 engine manufacturer in one of my favourite sectors.
Due to its long cycles of investment and return Aerospace remains a globally important sector with just 3 major players and huge barriers to entry.
As such GE continues to be heavily engaged and invested in new airframe programs such as Boeing's 787, the Airbus A380, Boeing's 737 Max, and the Airbus A320 Neo.
Jeff Immelt - CEO, has also stated that the company looks set to resume double digit sales increases (GE Update: Double digit earnings growth in 2012!), with analysts also suggesting healthy increases to the dividend.

All quite pleasing then with a cumulative net gain of 61.35% from the 4 investments.
Looking forward then I'm also not averse to adding more diversity to my portfolio with further US investments such as: United Technologies, Google, Teva and Berkshire Hathaway, and I'm also still interested in some potential European investments with Pharma's, BMW and VW also appealing to me.
In all cases the tax situation is slightly more complicated with some countries like Germany applying a 30% withholding tax to its dividend payouts to non nationals whilst the US retains 15%.
As ever there is an additional note of caution required due to the risk posed by volatile exchange rates as well as the different rates of currency exchange commission applied by your chosen broker.
As with your holiday money stronger sterling obviously gives you more purchasing power.

With strong recognisable brands and extensive global reach these 3 investments also have an obvious gearing to any US/DJIA inspired recovery. 
So, for me at least, all 3 remain long term holdings for my portfolio and (fingers crossed!), look set for ongoing gains into the future.

Related posts:
- June 2012: Portfolio Update.
- Globally Diversified Technology, Growth, and Hedge portfolio update.
- Globally Diversified Technology, Growth, and Hedge portfolio!!!
- August 2011: Portfolio Update.

Friday, 11 May 2012

Cisco continues to travail but never arrive!

I note that Cisco remains a volatile prospect after company guidance to reduce profit forecasts triggered yet another fall in the share price to $16.81, -$1.97 (-10.49%), which once again reverses a recent renaissance.
That's yet another striking pattern of optimistic recovery trend and cliff jumping reversal in the near 2 years that I have bought (31 Aug.10), binned (30 Aug. 11), and been aware of them.


The company continues to be a leader in its field and, with its hardware, could yet be the biggest beneficiary of the touted capacity busting increase in data traffic that is changing our lives. 
The company has frequently cited recessionary pressure on spending budgets as a temporary hit to its revenues and this could still be the issue but the longer this goes on the company also risks being engulfed by rivals catching up on technology and operating with lower margins.
Cisco does look to have made moves to address this through cost cutting and focus, hence its latest recovery trend, but this most recent disappointment might suggest that it has more fundamental strategic decisions to make.

On a positive note (for me at least), and despite my disappointment at selling them, it does seem to underline my decision to exit them. 
Although, with such a strong cycle of rise and fall, it might provide a trading opportunity for someone other than me.
Freaky that my ownership of them was within 1 day of being exactly 12 months though.

Related posts:
US Investment update: Cisco

Thursday, 8 September 2011

Globally Diversified Technology, Growth, and Hedge portfolio update.

Well my Globally Diversified Technology, Growth, and Hedge portfolio (Globally Diversified Technology, Growth, and Hedge portfolio!!! ) has had mixed success with one clear star in Apple, one average performer in Microsoft and an accident prone patient needing resuscitating in Cisco.

In the August portfolio update the performance of the 3 was as follows:


YTD20 Months
Apple$385.1014.46%95.36%
Microsoft$26.55-8.83%5.75%
Cisco$15.53-26.38%-27.76%


-3.2%23.8%

There have been a couple of small dividends from Cisco and Microsoft and the exchange rate hasn't really been a factor so its clear that Cisco has proven to be a drag on performance. But, as detailed in the August and July updates I had resigned myself to holding what is still a profitable company in the hope that it could eventually manage analysts expectations and return to growth despite competitive threats.
However, given the current turmoil in which a rock bottom Cisco hasn't really fallen by much further it seemed to be too good an opportunity not to bring in a company with, dare I say, more reliable prospects.
The company in question being General Electric which has fallen to a similar valuation on a 2 year view with its forecast sub 10 price earnings for 2012 and has gone through a significant reshaping of the business since Jeff Immelt, the CEO, joined the company just 4 days before 9/11 reshaped the world..
Sat on a cash pile of $91bn (according to Bloomberg in a recent interview with CEO Jeff Immelt http://www.bloomberg.com: GE Beating S&P Is Profit Goal as Immelt Decade Skirts Abyss), and with double digit earnings growth forecast for the next 2 years there seems to be some promise in them.

A key goal in the next two years is profit growth that beats the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, he said in an interview. “We feel like we can deliver for investors.”  (http://www.bloomberg.com: GE Beating S&P Is Profit Goal as Immelt Decade Skirts Abyss).

The shares have fallen around 20% in the current shake out given their position as a manufacturer geared to domestic and global markets. But, given the various references made to them in recent posts with regard to the 737 Max and A320 neo (and its leading position in large civil engines) I am starting to think that the CEO might just be turning the company around. 

Running with the strap line "Imagination at Work", the company continues to be diversified. Immelt has re-focussed the company on energy, health care and transportation but it continues to have interests right across the board in the provision of infrastructure (rail, water etc), lighting and consumer goods, and the recogniseable G.E Capital.

Anyway, Cisco has gone at $15.53 and GE has come in at $15.73 with the added benefit of a forecast 3.6% yield (or 3.06% less 15% withholding tax).

Significantly, I think that is the first sale from the portfolio since I starting writing my thoughts but am happy that it puts the portfolio into a stronger position particularly with GE's position as a bellweather of the US economy due to its size and position as a manufacturer. This comes with the added benefit of global markets and a significant geographic spread of revenues.

Related articles:

Earlier posts:

Sunday, 13 February 2011

US Investment update: Cisco

A little concerned about the Investor relations of Cisco, one of my US purchases. The company's quarterly reporting (last week)again seems to have been poorly received and the share price has again been punished. 
That's 2 quarterly reports in a row that this has happened and the company seems unable to manage the high expectations of markets and investors.
This time the company reported revenue growth of 6% over the same period a year ago and despite the statement that things panned out as expected, analysts were expecting 13% and have duly punished the share price with a drop of more than 10%.
The fear is that Cisco, despite being the market leader in the networking equipment required to keep the internet up and running, may be under pressure from competitors which could subsequently impact margins.
With the growth of the smart phone market, and the related data traffic, I am still hopeful that the market for the company's products is significant particularly with the many reports that networks are slow and creaking under the exponential growth in data traffic. 
On the upside there is anticipation that Cisco will start to pay a dividend this year which could support the share price but being bought for growth I will have to keep an eye on the company and its apparently naive investor relations particularly for any confirmation that margins and market share are under pressure.

Cisco @  $18.71, -11.6% v.original investment (incl. exchange rate impact)

mercurynews.com: Cisco Systems: Earnings beat expectations, but stock slides after hours