Showing posts with label Google. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Google. Show all posts

Saturday, 16 May 2015

Contemplations and watchlists.

Frustrating few weeks watching and waiting, and telling myself to be patient.
But when does patience drift into fear and apathy?

Having worked hard this last few years to change behaviours and be patient, I've tried to wait for opportunities to buy targets, or at least for markets to pause for a few days, rather than jump in as soon as I have a mind to.
But, the last few weeks of volatility (could be said for this year so far even), and then break out news is proving frustrating for a number of candidates which have reacted to election forecasts and then election results with a smattering of reporting news thrown in for good measure.

So the companies I'm currently watching then: 
Lloyds @ 89p, 52 week low - 71.92p;
BHP Billiton 1533p, 52 week low - 1276p; 
Bellway @ 2230p, 52 week low - 1352p;
Telford Homes @ 485p, 52 week low - 267.25p;
Telecom Plus @ 831p, 52 week low - 752.5p

added to long running companies like:
Standard Chartered @ 1051.5p, 52 week low - 881p;
VW @ 215.3 Euros, 52 week low - 150.7 Euros, and 1 GBP: 1.38 Euro.
Google @ $546.49, 52 week low - $497.06, and £1: $1.57

Lloyds is very much back in the spotlight with a resumption of dividends, the hive-off of TSB, and the Governments reducing stake. The strategy of the latter seeming to be a saved up pressure to reduce the share price by force of numbers.
However, the recent trading statement ahead of the election reversed recent pullbacks with a 10% gain on the day, and this momentum continued after the election outcome.
But there could be momentum over the next few years as the company continues to "recover" and return to a norm of tangible returns in the form of a dividend,

BHP is off its lows this year and has an upcoming split off of lower value assets into a separate trading company to contend with but with the double impact of a floundering oil price and reduced commodity demand and prices, now might be a good entry point if you can believe that industrial demand for commodities and oil will return.

Bellway and Telford, are both in construction and stem from my frustration at not being able to build a stake in Barratts. Again, the potential of a different election outcome served to pull these companies back, but they have subsequently turned around with 10% gains.

Telecom Plus is still a quandary for me trading mainly through the Utilities Warehouse brand, it has retreated in recent months following disappointments but if the long term story is still intact then this could be a good entry point to a long term dividend play.

Standard Chartered is all about recovering its mojo. It has the obvious significant exposure to the Far East and emerging market, but has a slightly battered reputation to repair.
A new board is being put together but questions remain about the balance sheet and if a fund raising/dividend cut is still required. 
The potential dividend cut being the pause on me, although if I had gone in at £8-£9 then I don't think I would be concerned but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

VW is another niggle as I seem to have watched it from 100 Euros to 175 Euros, pulling back to 130 and 150 Euros, before breaking 200 Euros. Again it appears to be pulling back and sits at 215 Euros.
Doubts over the Euro have held me back and currently I'm trying to understand if the current strength of sterling might give me a possible entry now that it appears to be 10% in sterling's favour.

Google might, or might not, seem an odd one, particularly as it has never paid a dividend, however, I have started to adopt the long term view of thinking which companies will still be around us in the future.
At some stage I expect Google will begin to pay a dividend, its just not close enough to predict currently.

And, as with utility companies, and the long running concerns over pricing and profits etc. I know that its likely I'm always going to need or be a customer of certain companies, so I might as well be a shareholder and for a small upfront investment, benefit year on year, in much the same way as if they were co-operatives.
If Google, or any other company, is going to be servicing you and your family, and your society, and the world over a lifetime, and be profitable, then they seem to be prime candidates for a long term, low maintenance portfolio regardless of economic cycles.

So it seems to be a difficult judgement (and one I'm struggling with), being patient but then recognising when the price range is acceptable against the long term story rather than trying to get THE best price.

Thursday, 18 October 2012

Google "groan" (not Chrome), as shares suspended on trading update.

NASDAQ @ 2744.17, -31.45 (-1.13)
Google @ $695, -$60.49 (-8.01%)

Bizarre, unheard of, and "by mistake".

It appears that Google has mistakenly declared its quarterly performance early as opposed to after the bell as planned and commonly seen with US companies.
The results outlined 3rd quarter earnings of $9.03 per share which was substantially short of analysts forecasts of $10.65.
This produced a significant fall of around 10% in the share price prior to its shares being suspended at around 12:50 until 3:20 New York time (Google shares suspended as premature results stun Wall Street), and then recovering slightly to close 8.01% down
Such a fall on such a share tied a big albatross around the NASDAQ which has itself closed more than 1% down.

Reports suggest that search and advertising revenues have suffered with users possibly bypassing Google for Amazon/App searches on Mobile devices (Google's results miss analyst forecasts: reaction). The company's acquisition of Motorola is also taking time to absorb with costs up around 71% (Google shares suspended as premature results stun Wall Street).

There is also a growing privacy and property issue to contend with as we accelerate towards a connected, cloud supported future.
Still the company remains the dominant search engine and with Chrome, Android, Cloud technology, and Motorola, Google continues to look like it can influence, shape and be at the heart of an internet and wireless dominated future.

But, its also worth noting that this is probably the 3rd big miss by Google in the last 2 years, as the company "invests" in capacity, innovation, and capability (occasionally at the short term expense of margins), but the shares have always recovered to new highs so it will be interesting to see if the same trick can be pulled off again. A further 10% and the shares might present another buying opportunity based on its previous bouncebackability.

Related article links:
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk: Google shares suspended as premature results stun Wall Street
- http://www.bbc.co.uk: Google shares suspended after profit results error
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk: Google results: mobile phones at the root of profit challenges
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk: Google's results miss analyst forecasts: reaction

Earlier Posts:
- Is Android a reason to invest in Google?
- Market valuations and Google's $12.5bn bid for Motorola.

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

IPhone and Android: Q1 and Xmas sales expectations!

Apple @ $419.81, -$1.58 (-0.37%).

Interesting reads on Iphone and smartphone uptakes in the last 3 months.
The following article on http://www.appleinsider.com: Apple's iPhone 4S propels iOS smartphone market share to 43% in Oct., Nov. 2011, suggests that iPhone sales in the US have been given a strong push with the release of the 4S and IOS 5 and may have had up to 43% of smartphone sales in the 2 month period ending Nov 2011 (26% in the previous quarter).
Over the same period sales of Android handsets may have fallen from 60% to 47% which still makes the smartphone market a 2 horse race in the US (and probably the world over).
Interesting that Apple seem to have taken the top 3 places in the sales charts over this 2 month period which could point to the appeal of a cheaper iPhone and/or the release of IOS 5. 
Either way the article suggests that the older version of iPhone have outsold the latest 4 S competitor, the Samsung Galaxy S II. 

Smartphones share of the handset market has also continued to grow and could now be at 67% of US handset sales.
But this is only October and November, so with December still to be added to the numbers what is the general expectation?
Well, Google's Andy Rubin reported 3.7m activations over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (I think that's worldwide), versus a prior daily average of 700,000  but, 

"Flurry Analytics reported that 6.8 million new iOS and Android devices were activated on Christmas Day, implying 353 percent growth compared to earlier in the month".

and,
"Apple is widely expected to report soaring iPhone sales when it announces its December quarter results on Tuesday, Jan. 24. The consensus estimate among a poll of professional analysts stands at 29.74 million, while the average forecast among independent analysts and bloggers is 33.4 million units".

Remembering that iPhone sales in the last quarter fell to 17.1m (from a record 20m in Q3), and actually disappointed analysts and investors hyped expectations, it looks like there could be a another record busting sales figure in the first quarter of this year. 
Lets hope that this time, the company's view and analysts expectations are a bit more in tune, and that the results put a little more of a deserved premium back into the share price which I can picture starting with a 5!


Related articles:

Earlier posts:

Wednesday, 2 February 2011

Is Android a reason to invest in Google?

With sterling strengthening against the dollar and various industry reports re. Android v. Iphone (mercurynews.com: Apple and Google have turned smartphone market on its head), I find myself once again considering Google as an investment. The basic idea being to cover "arguably" both bases in the smartphone / tablet market as well as buying a "handy little search engine" and advertising company at the same time!

Google has recently reported its fourth quarter operating performance (investor.google.com: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2010 Results...) which highlighted:
- fourth quarter revenues increasing to $8.44bn (up 26% year on year).
- an operating profit of $2.98bn (35% margins), for the final quarter
- net income of $2.54bn for the final quarter
- a net increase in cash of $3.4bn for the year as a whole resulting in
- a cash balance of $13.6bn as at 31 Dec 2010.

Big numbers which leads to the company being rated at a forecast P/E of 20.6 on this last year dropping to 17.7 and 15.3 for the following years.
This prices in an estimated 16% growth for the two subsequent years which isn't much when compared to historical numbers. But, having said that this last year was forecast (eventually) at 44% earnings growth which raises the question "how much of that growth was priced in at the beginning of the year and is the company still capable of huge suprises on the upside going forward?"
The question of growth is an important one at this stage as the company does not currently pay a dividend. This is why the cash pile continues to grow and theoretically at least, is because the company's management still have good reason to think that it can be better invested to the benefit of the company and its shareholders.
Well, that seems likely to come from its growing presence in the Tablet and Smartphone markets with its Android operating system.

But, the big question is how does Google make money on Android when it effectively supplies the operating system for free. Well, apparently, the company aims to increase the number of users of its systems and then makes its revenues from the apps being purchased as it appears that all App creators must be licensed with Google in order to supply them (pocketnow.com: How Does Google Make Money with Android?).
This contrasts with Apple who provide their own handsets in addition to the apps licensing etc. As a result Apple pulled in 43% of the global handset industry's profits, with only 4% of handset sales.

Can't just see how much Google pulls in from Android though, there is obviously some kind of exponential income linked to buying the phone, then buying the apps, using Chrome, Google search and Gmail, which then exposes you fully to the company's advertising processes from which it makes money!
Much like Apple there is a "lifestyle" being bought into with Google.

Again it is another company with pots of cash at the forefront of technology, leading change and influencing billions of people. I would suggest that it is impossible not to use a Google service in some form if you are an internet user (unless you are based in China), this blog service for example.
Lots to consider but the main thing is I am only indirectly looking to buy into "the lifestyle" through an investment as opposed to buying the products and the emotional attachment and loyalty that goes with it.

Google @ $611.04
Sterling : Dollar @ £1 : $1.6135

mercurynews.com: Apple and Google have turned smartphone market on its head

investor.google.com: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2010 Results...

pocketnow.com: How Does Google Make Money with Android?