February 2018: Portfolio Update (Try-ing times!).

Onto February 2018, and markets again fell sharply in a continuation of January's end.

Already doom and gloom rolling in like "The Fog". 

Markets did recover a small amount before falling again at the end of Feb. 
It will be interesting to see if this level can be a new base for markets to consolidate or will there be more falls to come.

As it is my portfolio fell -2.53% v. the FTSE's -4% with a mixture of big falls and little falls plus a few little gains.

Concerning to see BAT, Imperial Brands, National Grid and Vodafone leading the fallers.

Elsewhere, you might notice a new addition this month, along with a couple of small top-ups (Imperial Brands, National Grid), I have added Galliford Try to the mix.
I have been tempted by its profitable house building arm for some time given that it came off highs and it has had a further step fall in the wake of one of its partners on the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route Contract (AWPR), Carillion, descending into liquidation.
The other partner being Balfour Beatty which has had its own long running issues.

But, it seems to have taken the right steps, instigating a cash call to fund the shortfall created by Carillion no longer being an investing partner in the AWPR, which will enable it to continue to invest in opportunities within its Linden Homes, and Partnership and Regeneration arms.

The company has also re-iterated that it has already taken steps to withdraw from fixed price, all-risk projects, such as AWPR.

In another prudent step it has shaved its dividend to bring it into line with what was a stated future goal, it being to maintain a twice covered (by pre-exceptional earnings), dividend.

On a cautious note it should be noted that in April of last year, the company did lose Greg Fitzgerald (CEO and Chairman), a company man of 30 years and probably, a more than integral part of its success, to Bovis shortly after a failed merge with the struggling house-builder. 

It increases my portfolio's exposure to UK house builders to 13%, with Berkeley Group forming the larger part of that.

Its also a turnaround story of course but perhaps one that should never be, we shall have to wait and see, and keep a close eye on its progress of course.

Galliford Try now vies with the battered utility company, SSE for the position of smallest holding in my portfolio. SSE currently taking the honours although Galliford has only been included for a couple of weeks.

The spider that was Carillion collapsed in January of course, leading to widespread concerns as its web spread far across National and International Infrastructure projects and maintenance contracts, including our hospitals, schools and other public services.
Its anticipated that this will take time to resolve and likely to be on a piece by piece basis.
As ever, the way the company reported and was managed is a concern as it managed to hide its problems for such a long time and its with trepidation that one looks wider and asks how common is it and is there another bear trap out there for unwary investors.

Elsewhere, dividends were added from Vodafone, BAT, and Apple.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	68.80p	29.02%	0.00%	-1.02%	1.09%	11.43%
Aviva	505.60p	13.60%	4.18%	-1.48%	-0.18%	41.35%
Berkeley Group	3854.00p	11.66%	0.00%	-2.82%	-8.17%	64.30%
National Grid	740.20p	11.20%	6.05%	-8.02%	-15.30%	61.16%
BP	475.15p	10.99%	5.50%	-5.18%	-9.10%	14.20%
Apple **	$178.26	9.94%	0.95%	8.56%	2.30%	341.71%
BAT	4295.50p	3.03%	3.64%	-10.86%	-14.40%	28.06%
Imperial Brands	2619.00p	2.93%	5.36%	-9.64%	-14.05%	13.85%
Royal Dutch Shell	2321.00p	2.67%	0.96%	-7.01%	-7.47%	-9.84%
Vodafone	203.75p	2.07%	5.78%	-9.20%	-13.30%	-19.24%
SSE	1225.00p	1.25%	7.48%	-6.09%	-7.20%	6.44%
Galliford Try	918.00p	1.27%	13.33%	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Cash		0.38%	0.00%
		100.00%	2.62%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2526.26	2462.37			-2.53%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2462.37				-4.72%
- 98 month gain 1000.00	2462.37					146.24%
Unit Price - £	2.46237	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7533.60	7231.90			-4.00%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7231.90				-5.93%
- 98 month gain 5412.88	7231.90					39.18%

Transactions:
02/02/2017	Div	Vodafone @ 4.24p per share
08/02/2017	Div	BAT @ 43.6p per share
15/02/2017	Buy	Galliford Try @ 8.5218p per share
19/02/2017	Div	Apple @ 38.02p per share
22/02/2017	Buy	Imp.Brands @ 2620.57p per share
22/02/2017	Buy	National Grid @ 756.54p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.39058 as at 28/02/18 *** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.13706 as at 28/02/18

Click to enlarge, X to close.

Brexit pushback?

Finally, some pushback on the EU's bully boy tactics.
Today's news from the Times:
"Britain will refuse to pay its multibillion-pound Brexit divorce bill until Brussels backs down on attempts to keep Northern Ireland subject to European Union rules, David Davis warned last night. In an uncompromising letter sent to Tory MPs, the Brexit secretary said that Britain would not finalise financial payments to the EU until “all the issues” of concern to Britain had been addressed. "

Its been a sad, demoralising affair so far, as the UK seeks to sabotage itself and seemingly do the EU's work for them by undermining its own negotiating position.
From what I can see the EU have long since stopped negotiating, instead seizing on any reported split in opinion in UK papers and use it to make a statement of their own about their confusion as to what the UK's negotiated requests are. Which only serves to widen the cracks causing the UK to wage a negotiation on all sides rather than just the one outward side.

And the usual problem abounds, who are all these people? On one side are the recogniseable heads of state, on the other faceless European bureaucrats.

Well you will have to excuse me, but the EU negotiators should be dealing and speaking with the UK Gov'ts negotiating team, not the papers or any dissenting voices on either side. Those are internal affairs. And, anything else is a shallow attempt to gain leverage and take advantage of the situation (and that goes for both sides).

The people of the UK, all political parties, and the media also need to recognise this and close ranks. Again and again, whenever you hear or read an opinion, you have to ask what is in it for them? Personal ambitions, career enhancing, or just being heard to say I told you so?
Time and time again, disruption and weakness (the winds of change), are used as the smoke screen for a coup or democratic change of power with promises of something better, which ultimately is no improvement to the situation at all, as you are too weakened and disjointed. Personal ambitions and advantages are advanced however, and you find yourself having been just a pawn in someone else's game.

It seems that there has been a lack of respect throughout the whole affair too, from no voters attempting to label yes voters as lacking in education (can anyone truly determine which side has the most free will and the least amount of indoctrination?), to politicians manipulating the truth/facts, and worse, looking to advance their own agenda's at the cost to the UK, as well as EU negotiators speaking to the press directly at every opportunity to report how badly the UK negotiating team is doing, are they missing the point of a negotiation? Or taking advantage?

Its also not so long since that the Irish people voted against the EU's treaty of lisbon. Can't recall the issue of borders being a factor in that one. It also seems to me given the UK's bailout of Ireland during the credit crunch, it continues to give more relevant support which seems to be forgotten.

I have little confidence of this ending well for the UK, unless we stand behind the appointed negotiating representatives of this country and allow them to do their job.
Anything less, then, putting aside the interests of the few being advanced, the British people as a whole will likely be paying more for a weak negotiation and for longer.