Thursday 26 March 2020

Coronavirus and collapsing world markets

Well, you haven't heard much from me for awhile, but seems a good time to say a few words.
Seems a long time now since I started blogging and when I look back now my baseline was the 28 December 2009 when the FTSE100 stood at 5412.88, a little more than a year after the start of the credit crunch during which it ploughed a low of around 3800 in Oct. 08 and ran at this level for much of the first quarter of 2009, during which time, in Mar. 09, it had a closing low of around 3500 before starting a long shallow recovery to close 2009 at 5412.88, my starting point.
Almost feels like we have gone full circle in 10 years to be right back where it all began with the FTSE100 hitting a low (current), of 4993.89 on the 23 March.

With health and life the primary concern, I fully appreciate that there is so much more to be worried about at the moment, but our income, savings and investments are also very much at the forefront of peoples' minds as they try to grasp what is happening around us.

I've been invested now through every market rout since, and including 1987, and despite, every rout appearing different and potentially game changing, things have always found a way to come good again.
Whilst we, or I, try to use patience as a main tool, others have been patiently waiting for the turmoil and fear of the current situation and will be making profits in the rout.
I have certainly felt the fear, and anxiety as profits have melted away and the initial leak has turned into a torrent. Logic and reason has also gone out of the window as a very significant (to me), amount of capital has just evaporated.
It hasn't helped losing touch with my monitors and it took me a little time before I even dared look at my portfolio, but eventually a little courage won out and I brought everything back up to date.

The figures are certainly not pretty, I have seen a near 100% amount (based on starting capital), fall in profits from a high of 170% since inception down to (and this is the important part of the message), a gain of 75%. 

The real £note figures have been hugely painful and fearful to accept, but bringing things up to date, has helped me to see that I am actually still up by 75% (dividends re-invested), whilst the FTSE100 has fallen into negative territory after 10 years.
And differently to previous crashes I have lived through, I have actually taken significant dividends out over the last 3 years, in order to finance a house purchase, a kitchen renovation, and a change of vehicle.

In previous crashes, I've often regretted not splurging an amount on a fast car or something before the crash, in order to have had some benefit rather than just paper gains. At least in this case I have, so my living hasn't been held back for a vanished paper profit.

Anyway, I'm trying to give out a positive message that, if world governments and populations can contain the current pandemic, preserving both our health and livelihoods, then markets will find a way to recover. 
With little science or statistical estimates, and just looking at 2008/09, I would suggest a probable 3 year timescale (with various zig zaggy dips and false dawns), for markets to recover back to a level that would make most of us accepting (even forgetful of the pain), of the losses we have all seen in the recent bloodbath.

Stay safe.

As at 17 March 2020

Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD All time
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
Lloyds 33.23p 27.89% 10.11% -41.49% -46.84% -46.19%
Aviva 238.20p 13.41% 13.04% -32.10% -43.11% -34.02%
National Grid 905.70p 28.03% 5.38% -9.95% -4.09% 87.15%
BP 240.00p 11.04% 13.71% -39.42% -49.11% -42.31%
Apple ** $273.36 0.00% 0.85% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Fevertree Drinks 1262.00p 0.00% 1.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Royal Dutch Shell 1013.00p 2.32% 15.07% -39.11% -54.77% -60.65%
Standard Chartered 441.50p 7.01% 4.74% -30.03% -38.03% -33.83%
Amazon ** 1883.75p 0.00% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash 10.30% 0.00%
100.00% 8.27%
1 month YTD All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2478.43   1753.28 -29.26%
- YTD gain         2239.00  1753.28 -21.29%
- 123 mnth gain 1000.00 1753.28 75.33%
Unit Price - £ 1.75328 (Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6580.61  5056.31 -23.16%
- YTD gain         6728.13  5056.31 -24.85%
- 123 mnth gain 5412.88  5056.31 -6.59%
Transactions:
09/01/2020 Div National Grid @ 16.08p per share
17/02/2020 Div Apple @ 48.37p per share
23/01/2020 Sell Fevertree @ 147.99p per share
24/01/2020 Sell Amazon @ 1118.92p per share
24/01/2020 Sell Apple @ 2440.11p per share

Thursday 4 July 2019

Musings

Lots to catch up inside my portfolio having spent the last few months financing home improvements etc.
But, as we get beyond the traditional May milestone "Sell in May da-de dah...etc. etc." and are still mired in the various trade disputes, and Brexit trials and Tory leadership turmoils there are various sectors under watch as they plough recent lulls and lows due to cyclical and uncertainty reasons.
I've developed a constant question when faced with rhetoric and newsflow that some of you might be able to bring to mind, that being "what's in it for them?" and this is generally aimed at reporters, analysts and politicians!
It seems more strongly prevalent than ever, particularly when we look at the House of Commons, the ongoing fight for no. 10 from both outside and within the Conservative party.
Brexit really seems lost amongst personal and party ambitions.

I see various quotes about supporting a second referendum and letting the people decide, and it seems this is being used a shield with a pretence of democracy. Unfortunately, the people had already decided but this historic fact seems lost amidst the personal ambitions of our so called representatives.

Anyway back to the game, retailers, house builders and many other sectors are being hit by uncertainty and with many household names amongst them they are at valuations that might be termed attractive in recent and in some cases historic timeframes.

Both Ted Baker and Associated British Foods are amongst these having been affected by trading conditions and uncertainty, will they or can they bounceback?

Tobacco stocks are also in the midst of perfect global storm of negative newsflow and statistics and there is much uncertainty about what these companies may look like in the future?

The uncertainty around these sectors is also affecting many others in a similar groove, yet overall markets are still holding good levels with the FTSE comfortably above the long held ceiling that was 7000.
It seemed to spend the best part of 20 years trying to break through (beginning in 1999), but has managed to maintain a hold (apart from a blip or two), above that mark since the end of 2016. 
Anyway, I'm still managing home improvements but had these trails of thoughts following ABF news today regarding Primark which gave me pause for thought particularly given its global presence in retail now.