June 2014: Portfolio Update.

So we're at the halfway point of the year and as things stand my portfolio, the Merchant Adventurer's index, is down -1.59% for the year to date and lagging the FTSE100's flat -0.09%.

An number of dividends landed from BAE, William Hill, Centrica, Microsoft, Morrison's, and BP, which means that the capital returned to my portfolio in 6 months of 2014, almost matches the total received in the whole of 2011 (2013 Dividends profiled.),
Of course it should be noted that this also includes a one-off amount received from Vodafone as part of the post Verizon Wireless restructuring.

Back to my portfolio and there is a small initial investment in Barratt Developments, as I take on the view that impetus will remain behind Housebuilders as the economy returns to growth. This may seem a little late to the party but we shall see. My view is that dividends in this sector will continue to recover as a more stable environment establishes itself in cashflows.
However, it is a more cyclical sector than I like as fortunes ebb and flow with interest rates and political will. 
There is also the periodic concern of maintaining landbanks as current holdings are consumed, which obviously become more costly inline with house prices which, in turn, squeezes profit margins along with higher labour costs as the sector approaches capacity.
I plan on making a further top up in July.

As you would expect with a fall of- 0.90% in the month, there isn't too much upside to discuss. But its nice to see my index's fall of -0.90%, better the FTSE100's -1.47% fall, which, hopefully, suggests a return to more normal performance relative to the FTSE100.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	42 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1069.00p	30.56%	2.17%	2.79%	-14.58%	62.84%
National Grid	840.00p	14.59%	5.15%	-5.62%	6.60%	51.90%
Aviva	510.50p	11.83%	3.22%	-2.58%	13.52%	51.09%
BP	514.50p	5.91%	4.54%	2.29%	5.42%	13.57%
Apple **	$650.51	6.84%	0.26%	2.78%	14.24%	52.33%
Vodafone	195.00p	2.11%	5.85%	-6.92%	-22.71%	-22.71%
Verizon **	2981.57p	1.54%	3.61%	0.00%	7.43%	7.43%
IG Group	587.50p	4.17%	4.36%	-2.33%	-4.63%	23.11%
William Hill	328.00p	2.95%	3.75%	-7.76%	-18.39%	78.09%
Imperial Tobacco	2630.00p	2.91%	5.32%	-2.30%	12.49%	16.42%
BAT	3478.00p	2.60%	4.20%	-3.40%	7.41%	3.69%
General Electric **	$26.28	2.01%	2.91%	-1.90%	-7.61%	60.35%
Microsoft **	$41.70	2.02%	2.31%	1.86%	9.78%	39.01%
BAE Systems	432.90p	1.71%	4.76%	2.32%	-0.48%	31.18%
Centrica	312.60p	1.55%	5.63%	-6.85%	-10.09%	-5.73%
SSE	1567.00p	1.71%	5.71%	0.71%	14.38%	27.92%
Morrisons	183.40p	0.91%	7.16%	-9.07%	-29.73%	-31.46%
BG Group	1235.00p	1.42%	1.49%	1.15%	-4.82%	-4.71%
Tesco	284.20p	0.90%	4.94%	-6.37%	-15.00%	-28.76%
Barrat Dev.	373.70p	0.67%	3.67%	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Cash		1.10%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.34%
				1 Month	YTD	42 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2124.30 -	2105.28			-0.90%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	2105.28				-1.59%
- 42 month gain 1264.20 -	2105.28					66.53%
- 54 month gain 1000.00 -	2105.28					110.53%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6844.55 -	6743.94			-1.47%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6743.94				-0.08%
- 42 month gain 5971.01 -	6743.94					12.94%
- 54 month gain 5412.88 -	6743.94					24.59%
Transactions:
02/06/2014	Div	BAE @ 12.1p per share
07/06/2014	Div	William Hill @ 9.65p per share
11/06/2014	Div	Centrica @ 11.78p per share
13/06/2014	Div	Microsoft @ 12.5p per share
11/06/2014	Div	Morrisons @ 8.31p per share
20/06/2014	Div	BP @ 5.83p per share
23/06/2014	Buy	Barrat Dev. @ 351.94p
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.67563 as at month end Chart wise, its still looks like my index is on an earlier uptrend established in 2012 and therefore, a stronger uptrend than the FTSE100.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So the half year report reads as slightly disappointing, with a few concerns regarding underperformance: Tesco, Morrisons, BG, but signs of consolidation (supported by dividends), as we enter the second half.

Previous Posts:
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.

News bites: Tesco CEO - Resignation and; Farnborough - Record Orders.

Tesco @ 291.3p, +6.6p (+2.21%), as at 10:10
Rolls-Royce @ 1034p, +2p (+0.19), as at 10:12
GE @ $26.46, -$0.15 (-0.46%), yesterday's close

Couple of pieces of significant news today: the first being the resignation of Philip Clarke as CEO at Tesco (Tesco boss Philip Clarke quits after profit warning), and the second being a steadying of confidence in the aerospace industry following a record breaking farnborough (FARNBOROUGH ROUND-UP - Record orders lift air show spirits). 

The first brings more concerns for me with my investment in the Supermarket sector and could introduce yet another lengthy period of ups and downs, and spending of the family silver, as the expectation for instant change and new ideas is firmly established, alongside a finite timescale of impatience and desperation, to arrest underperformance and the loss of market positive perception.
Whilst the shares have been boosted slightly by the news, my thinking has definitely swung towards exiting my supermarket investments with only the dividends currently meriting a hold until sentiment improves and the sector establishes a new basis of expectations.

As to Farnborough, well, having only recently topped up my largest holding in Rolls-Royce, that is better news and once again demonstrates the long term nature of the business. 

Long term order books and future sales allows investment in technology, and confidence in demand allows investment in production capacity and efficiency.

May 2014: Portfolio Update.

May 2014, and its nice to see my portfolio trying to close the gap on the FTSE100 and year to date parity following the speedbump provided by my largest holding Rolls-Royce.

A first dividend from Verizon Communications, and BAT, was added to a nice dividend from Aviva, a growing dividend from Apple and then BG.
Typically my 4th best month for dividends (2013 Dividends profiled.).

So with this little boost my portfolio recorded 2.1% in the month bring the year to date shortfall down to just 0.7%.
The FTSE100's lesser 0.95% gain was still enough to lift its year to date performance to 1.41% though.

Nice to see Apple recovering its bounce with an 8.03% increase int he month followed by a 7.67% bounce in the newly held Verizon Communications.
A shame then that the exchange rate has swung firmly back into sterlings favour as the UK starts to benefit from the perception of economic growth this year.
Good for UK visitors to the US but not good for my $ holdings which suffer from the valuation conversion back into sterling.

The usual table:

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	41 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1040.00p	29.46%	2.23%	-0.95%	-16.90%	58.42%
National Grid	890.00p	15.32%	4.86%	5.89%	12.94%	60.94%
Aviva	524.00p	12.03%	3.14%	-0.29%	16.52%	55.09%
BP	503.00p	5.73%	4.65%	0.76%	3.06%	11.04%
Apple **	$632.94	6.60%	0.26%	8.03%	11.16%	48.22%
Vodafone	209.50p	2.24%	5.44%	-4.90%	-16.96%	-16.96%
Verizon **	2981.57p	1.52%	3.61%	7.67%	7.43%	7.43%
IG Group	601.50p	4.23%	4.26%	-5.42%	-2.35%	26.05%
William Hill	355.60p	3.17%	3.46%	0.25%	-11.52%	93.08%
Imperial Tobacco	2692.00p	2.96%	5.20%	5.28%	15.14%	19.17%
BAT	3600.50p	2.67%	4.05%	5.37%	11.20%	7.34%
General Electric **	$26.79	2.03%	2.85%	0.34%	-5.82%	63.47%
Microsoft **	$40.94	1.97%	2.35%	2.06%	7.78%	36.48%
BAE Systems	423.10p	1.65%	4.87%	5.78%	-2.74%	28.21%
Centrica	335.60p	1.65%	5.24%	1.70%	-3.48%	1.21%
SSE	1556.00p	1.68%	5.75%	2.03%	13.58%	27.02%
Morrisons	201.70p	0.99%	6.51%	0.40%	-22.72%	-24.63%
BG Group	1221.00p	1.39%	1.51%	1.92%	-5.90%	-5.79%
Tesco	303.55p	0.95%	4.62%	3.62%	-9.21%	-23.91%
Cash		1.76%	13.73%
		100.00%	3.53%
				1 Month	YTD	41 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2080.69 -	2124.32			2.10%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	2124.32				-0.70%
- 41 month gain 1264.20 -	2124.32					68.04%
- 53 month gain 1000.00 -	2124.32					112.43%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6780.03 -	6844.51			0.95%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6844.51				1.41%
- 41 month gain 5971.01 -	6844.51					14.63%
- 53 month gain 5412.88 -	6844.51					26.45%
Transactions:
06/05/2014	Div	Verizon @ 26.51p per share
08/05/2014	Div	BAT @ 81.2p per share
16/05/2014	Div	Aviva @ 9.4p per share
20/05/2014	Div	Apple @ 208.86p per share
30/05/2014	Div	BG Group @ 9.51p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.67563 as at month end And, the chart once again shows the strong trend of previous years (excepting last years above trend highs).

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So things feel much better given that my portfolio is back within a whisker of its highs despite the Rolls-Royce effect. 
And, with time having moved on 4 months, future forecasts are starting to be better understood and "some" speculative valuations are once again seeming more comfortable.

I'm starting to take an interest in new investments with housebuilders, and banks having been mentioned but I'm also rethinking technology with both ARM and Imagination pulling back this year.
Anyway, I'm closing in on the half year and bringing everything back up to date!

April 2014: Portfolio Update.

April, and a 3rd of the way through 2014!
The FTSE100 continued its recent good performance (relative to mine), with a gain of 2.75% in the month keeping it broadly flat for the year at 0.46% up year to date.

For myself 1.87% in the month lagged the FTSE and leaves the year to date performance as negative at -2.74%.

Dividends were thin on the ground with just a token received from General Electric, and portfolio performance was fairly flat with the exception of bounces in Aviva, Apple, BG, and Imperial Tobacco following recent underperformance.

But not too much more to write about so here's the table.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	40 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1050.00p	30.37%	2.21%	-2.23%	-16.10%	59.94%
National Grid	840.50p	14.77%	5.15%	2.25%	6.66%	51.99%
Aviva	525.50p	12.32%	3.13%	10.17%	16.86%	55.53%
BP	499.20p	5.80%	4.68%	3.11%	2.28%	10.20%
Apple **	$590.03	6.23%	0.28%	8.57%	2.89%	37.19%
Vodafone	220.30p	2.41%	5.17%	0.00%	-12.68%	-12.68%
Verizon **	2769.14p	1.45%	3.86%	-2.99%	-0.22%	-0.22%
IG Group	636.00p	4.57%	4.03%	1.35%	3.25%	33.28%
William Hill	354.70p	3.23%	3.47%	4.02%	-11.74%	92.59%
Imperial Tobacco	2557.00p	2.87%	5.47%	5.53%	9.37%	13.19%
BAT	3417.00p	2.59%	4.27%	2.44%	5.53%	1.87%
General Electric **	$26.89	2.07%	2.84%	2.57%	-6.13%	62.92%
Microsoft **	$40.40	1.97%	2.38%	-2.67%	5.61%	33.73%
BAE Systems	400.00p	1.59%	5.15%	-3.43%	-8.05%	21.21%
Centrica	330.00p	1.65%	5.33%	0.09%	-5.09%	-0.48%
SSE	1525.00p	1.68%	5.87%	3.81%	11.31%	24.49%
Morrisons	200.90p	1.01%	6.54%	-5.68%	-23.03%	-24.93%
BG Group	1198.00p	1.40%	1.54%	7.20%	-7.67%	-7.56%
Tesco	292.95p	0.93%	4.79%	-0.83%	-12.38%	-26.56%
Cash		1.10%	13.73%
		100.00%	3.51%
				1 Month	YTD	40 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2042.57 -	2080.69			1.87%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	2080.69				-2.74%
- 40 month gain 1264.20 -	2080.69					64.58%
- 52 month gain 1000.00 -	2080.69					108.07%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6598.37 -	6780.03			2.75%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6780.03				0.46%
- 40 month gain 5971.01 -	6780.03					13.55%
- 52 month gain 5412.88 -	6780.03					25.26%
Transactions:
29/04/2014	Div	General Electric @ 10.93p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.68753 as at month end

And the chart.
Although its nice to see that the relative trends of the two series appearing to remain intact. Nice from my perspective as my portfolio continues to have much the stronger trend despite the pullback from recent highs.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So a third of the way through the year with little gains to write about in either my own portfolio or the FTSE100.
At best a period of consolidation although the concerns seem slightly different from recent years.
Europe's ship may have finally steadied, but middle eastern concerns continue, along with the retro like cold war posturing taking place over the Ukraine.

So, as ever, the rest of the year remains undecided and the future unclear....no change there then.