Sunday 29 December 2013

November 2013: Portfolio Update.

Markets took a slight pause for breath again with heightened concerns over shadowy housing bubbles and the long wait for US Treasury guidance on the future trend for quantitative easing.

As a result the FTSE pulled back slightly by -1.2%, but my portfolio made a small gain of 1.09% with the help of Rolls-Royce gaining 7.39% and dividends from Morrison's, Centrica, Aviva, Apple, and RSA. 

I took a major decision to sell RSA given the company's second profit warning in as many weeks and news that the full year profits are now exposed to a black hole from the company's Irish division. 
My decision to sell here was triggered by an open ended concern over a wider write down, concerns over the dividend, and the potential for regulatory action.

So a short lived tenure in my portfolio for RSA has come to an end for the time being. So much for my attempt to top up my dividends following Aviva's cut last earlier in the year.

The table below still shows RSA, but at the selling price, and will be removed in my next update.


Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast
1 month
YTD
35 mth
Price
% holding
Div. yield
% gain
% gain
% gain
R-R
1235.00p
32.57%
1.78%
7.39%
41.39%
98.23%
National Grid
775.00p
13.60%
5.43%
-1.21%
10.24%
40.14%
Aviva
429.30p
10.06%
3.76%
-4.41%
15.09%
27.06%
Apple **
$556.07
6.05%
1.75%
4.36%
5.38%
33.32%
BP
482.00p
5.60%
4.83%
-0.15%
12.54%
6.40%
Vodafone
226.80p
4.54%
4.55%
1.02%
21.46%
19.80%
IG Group
585.00p
4.20%
4.08%
-4.65%
30.00%
22.59%
William Hill
385.60p
3.50%
3.04%
-3.82%
17.06%
109.36%
Imperial Tobacco
2324.00p
2.60%
4.99%
-0.21%
2.88%
2.88%
BAT
3261.00p
2.47%
4.42%
-5.09%
-2.78%
-2.78%
General Electric **
$26.66
2.11%
2.45%
-0.02%
25.50%
66.55%
Centrica
338.30p
1.69%
5.13%
-4.27%
1.41%
2.02%
BAE Systems
427.40p
1.70%
4.74%
-6.00%
26.86%
29.52%
Microsoft **
$38.13
1.91%
2.22%
5.74%
40.95%
30.14%
SSE
1327.00p
1.46%
6.65%
-6.29%
-6.42%
8.33%
Morrisons
265.50p
1.33%
4.88%
-5.72%
0.95%
-0.78%
BG Group
1248.50p
1.45%
1.41%
-1.96%
23.31%
-3.67%
RSA Ins.Grp
107.36p
1.15%
5.96%
-16.39%
-9.25%
-9.25%
Tesco
347.95p
1.11%
4.34%
-4.46%
3.56%
-12.78%
Cash
0.88%
0.00%
100.00%
3.36%
1 Month
YTD
35 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2060.17 -
2082.68
1.09%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -
2082.68
26.64%
- 35 month gain 1264.20 -
2082.68
64.74%
- 47 month gain 1000.00 -
2082.68
108.27%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6731.43 -
6650.57
-1.20%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -
6650.57
12.76%
- 35 month gain 5971.01 -
6650.57
11.38%
- 47 month gain 5412.88 -
6650.57
22.87%
Transactions:
11/11/2013  Sell RSA @ 107.36p
11/11/2013 Div Morrisons @ 3.84p per share
15/11/2013 Div Centrica @ 4.92p per share
15/11/2013 Div Aviva @ 5.6p per share
18/11/2013 Div Apple @ £1.5829 per share (est)
22/11/2013 Div RSA @ 2.28p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6366 as at 30/11/13




And the chart:

Click to enlarge, close to return.

Quite exciting that the aforementioned market concerns aside, my portfolio has performed strongly in the year to date and is well placed for any year-end rally.

But even without that, I would be more than happy to lock in the current year to date performance of 26.64%.

And, we could be in recovery!

Earlier Posts:

October 2013: Portfolio Update.
September 2013: Portfolio Update.
August 2013: Portfolio Update.
- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
July 2013: Portfolio Update.

20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
April 2013: Portfolio Update.
March 2013: Portfolio Update.
February 2013: Portfolio update.
January 2013: Portfolio Update.
December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).



Saturday 28 December 2013

October 2013: Portfolio Update

October has proven to be a good month for the FTSE and my portfolio with respective gains of 4.17% and 5.79%.
Pleasingly it took my overall gains back above 100% over 46 months boosted by a steady flow of dividends.
Double digit gains in the month came from Aviva, Apple, BP, and GE. 
On the downside, small pullbacks from  William Hill, Centrica, and SSE as short term success from punters and continued publicity over power company tariffs put pressure on these three.

Dividends in the month were added from IG and GE.

And. although easing slightly dollar strength against sterling continued to deflate some of my portfolio gains.

Nice to see Apple start to build some momentum again as expectation of the long awaited China Mobile deal escalates.

So the scores on the doors:


Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD 34 mth
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
R-R 1150.00p 30.66% 1.91% 3.42% 31.65% 84.59%
National Grid 784.50p 13.92% 5.36% 7.39% 11.59% 41.86%
Aviva 449.10p 10.63% 3.59% 13.18% 20.40% 32.92%
Apple ** $522.35 5.86% 1.86% 10.74% 0.97% 27.75%
BP 482.70p 5.67% 4.82% 11.45% 12.70% 6.55%
Vodafone 224.50p 4.54% 4.60% 3.94% 20.22% 18.58%
IG Group 613.50p 4.45% 3.89% 5.96% 36.33% 28.56%
William Hill 400.90p 3.68% 2.93% -0.52% 21.71% 117.67%
Imperial Tobacco 2329.00p 2.64% 4.98% 1.84% 3.10% 3.10%
BAT 3436.00p 2.63% 4.19% 4.87% 2.44% 2.44%
General Electric ** $26.14 2.14% 2.50% 10.48% 25.53% 66.59%
Centrica 353.40p 1.79% 4.91% -4.41% 5.94% 6.57%
BAE Systems 454.70p 1.83% 4.46% 0.07% 34.97% 37.79%
Microsoft ** $35.35 1.83% 2.40% 7.61% 33.30% 23.08%
SSE 1416.00p 1.58% 6.23% -3.93% -0.14% 15.59%
Morrisons 281.60p 1.43% 4.60% 0.57% 7.07% 5.23%
BG Group 1273.50p 1.50% 1.39% 7.88% 25.78% -1.74%
RSA Ins.Grp 128.40p 1.40% 4.98% 6.20% 8.53% 8.53%
Tesco 364.20p 1.17% 4.15% 1.45% 8.39% -8.70%
Cash 0.66% 0.00%
100.00% 3.40%
1 Month YTD 34 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1947.37 - 2060.17 5.79%
- YTD gain         1644.62 - 2060.17 25.27%
- 34 month gain 1264.20 - 2060.17 62.96%
- 46 month gain 1000.00 - 2060.17 106.02%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6462.22 - 6731.43 4.17%
- YTD gain         5897.81 - 6731.43 14.13%
- 34 month gain 5971.01 - 6731.43 12.74%
- 46 month gain 5412.88 - 6731.43 24.36%
Transactions:
22/10/2013 Div IG Group @ 17.5p per share
29/10/2013 Div Gen. Electric @ 9.97p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.60436 as at 31/10/13


And, the 3 year chart: 

Click to enlarge, close to return.


So as global economies seem to be in a shallow recovery phase now, there are factional concerns over the withdrawal of easy money supply, particularly in the US, and a new housing bubble in the UK.

For myself, I'm not sure that there is any substance to either concern and will be happy when the artificial interference's are removed.

Looking ahead, although I am still feeling positive that my portfolio can continue to make steady gains, there may yet be a test for my long term resolve, as my portfolio may not power ahead if recovery locks in and the markets increasing appetite for risk sees more cyclical and speculative investments come to the fore. 

But, I hope I am a more self aware investor these days and that, by focusing on a longer term goal, I can continue to smooth a good long term average of year on year gains, whilst minimizing my exposure to the kind of speculative investment that can tempt me from my path with promises that never materialize.

Until next month.

Earlier Posts:

September 2013: Portfolio Update.
August 2013: Portfolio Update.
- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
July 2013: Portfolio Update.

20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
April 2013: Portfolio Update.
March 2013: Portfolio Update.
February 2013: Portfolio update.
January 2013: Portfolio Update.
December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).