Sunday 28 July 2013

June 2013: Portfolio Update.

So markets continued to retreat in June closing the month out with a -5.58% fall in the FTSE 100 to 6215.47.
My portfolio performed marginally better with a lesser fall of -4.28% following a raft of dividends from BAE, William Hill, Centrica, Microsoft, Morrison, and BP.

Portfolio gainers in the month were few with just Aviva, IG, Microsoft, BAE, and Morrisons recording positive moves.
YTD there continues to be a healthy gain of 14.79% for the portfolio v. the FTSE100's 5.39%, helped by strong individual performances from Rolls-Royce, Microsoft, William Hill, IG, Vodafone, GE, and BAE.

Even more so when the dividends from each of these companies are taken into account.


Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD 30 mth
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
R-R 1134.00p 36.25% 1.91% -5.89% 29.82% 82.02%
National Grid 746.00p 15.87% 5.50% -4.91% 6.12% 34.90%
Aviva 340.00p 9.65% 4.80% 1.86% -8.85% 0.63%
BP 455.00p 4.81% 5.09% -3.90% 7.11% -0.59%
Apple ** $396.53 4.42% 2.32% -11.87% -20.87% 7.08%
William Hill 441.00p 4.86% 2.64% -0.38% 33.88% 139.44%
IG Group 580.00p 5.05% 3.81% 0.17% 28.89% 21.54%
General Electric ** $23.19 2.40% 2.82% -0.66% 17.52% 55.96%
Centrica 360.00p 2.18% 4.81% -5.26% 7.91% 8.56%
Microsoft ** $34.55 2.26% 2.22% 9.05% 37.49% 26.95%
SSE 1523.00p 2.03% 5.54% -11.03% 7.40% 24.33%
Vodafone 188.00p 1.76% 5.51% -9.93% 21.72% 16.67%
BAE Systems 383.00p 1.85% 5.33% 2.80% 13.68% 16.06%
Morrisons 262.00p 1.60% 4.86% 0.34% -0.38% -2.09%
Imperial Tobacco 2280.00p 1.53% 5.09% -0.59% -0.59% -0.59%
BG Group 1119.00p 1.58% 1.60% -5.33% 10.52% -13.66%
Tesco 331.00p 1.28% 4.58% -25.29% -1.49% -17.03%
Cash 0.63% 0.00%
100.00% 3.48%
1 Month YTD 30 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1972.20 -  1887.78 -4.28%
- YTD gain         1644.62 - 1887.78 14.79%
- 30 month gain 1264.20 - 1887.78 49.33%
- 42 month gain 1000.00 - 1887.78 88.78%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6583.09 - 6215.47 -5.58%
- YTD gain         5897.81 - 6215.47 5.39%
- 30 month gain 5971.01 - 6215.47 4.09%
- 42 month gain 5412.88 - 6215.47 14.83%
Transactions:
02/06/2013
Div
BAE @ 11.7p per share
07/06/2013
Div
William Hill @ 7.8p per share
12/06/2013
Div
Centrica @ 11.78p per share
17/06/2013
Div
Microsoft @ 12.5p per share
19/06/2013
Div
Morrisons @ 8.31p per share
21/06/2013
Div
BP @ 5.83p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.52027 as at 30/06/13


Interestingly, the chart shows a similar dip last year albeit in May rather than June and without the prior gains that have propelled this years performance so far.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

There is a continuing sense of uncertainty around the future direction of market stimulus from central banks and when it will end: Markets pause for breath! / FTSE's fragile confidence., and, as mentioned, I have my own views over any extension to this artificial market cocoon.

But I also think that any volatility created by this "uncertainty" should not be a concern to any investor with a longer term goal as it has more to do with emotion and "trade creation" than individual prospects.

A more realistic worry for me is that the "twice in a lifetime" conditions that allowed me to invest in lowly rated companies with good prospects and strong yields is changing as economies generally improve.
I say this because the credit crunch and falling markets were indiscriminate taking down good with bad and generally making the decision to invest in markets one for the brave / logical / emotionless.
But with markets and companies having improved over the last few years conditions are less indiscriminate meaning that companies' share prices are more closely rated to their performance than has been in the case over the last few years.

That's not to say that there won't still be sectors and companies cycling out of favour or company specific concerns that affect companies in the short term which might still represent opportunities of share price weakness for longer term investors.

After a lot of pondering I have also taken the decision to add more funds to my  portfolio so will be making an adjustment to accommodate the additional funds and investments over the next few weeks.








Friday 26 July 2013

June 2013: Following Woodford update.

So, each of "the 3 ways to follow Woodford" pulled back from what are now month end closing all time highs for this experiment strategy
Still out in front with a gain of 20.08% is a direct investment in the Woodford managed Invesco Perpetual flagship fund, the High Income Fund.
Close behind on 17.62% is still the alternative Woodford managed Edinburgh Investment Trust.
And, still lagging in third place is the 3 picks option with a gain of 15.13%.

But, healthy gains are now being seen across all 3 options.

Looking at the 3 picks, all 3 individual companies continue to be top 10 holdings for the High Income Fund so no changes are required (http://www.invescoperpetual.co.uk: Invesco Perpetual High Income Fund).

Shares Price Value & Gain
Inv. Perp. High Income 1110.14 6.49 7204.84 20.08%
Residue 0.00
Dividends
Total 6000 7204.84 20.08%
Edinburgh Investment Trust 1182.00 5.65 6678.30 11.31%
Residue 0.43
Dividends 378.24
Total 6000 7056.97 17.62%
3 Picks
BAT 61.00 33.67 2053.87 2.69%
Glaxo 138.00 16.48 2274.24 13.71%



BT 788.00 3.09 2434.92 11.05%
Residue 0.00
Dividends 144.51
Total 6000 6907.54 15.13%
Transactions in the month:
Invesco Perp. High Income N/A
Edinburgh Inv. Trust
3 Picks


Click to enlarge, close to return.

Interesting to see the chart which illustrates the battling roller coaster ride with each of the choices taking their turn out in front.
But since the turn of the year both of the Woodford managed options opened a significant gap over the 3 picks which has only just started to close.
As far as I can surmise this came from 2 distinct elements, the first being a surge in the share price and fortunes of Rolls-Royce contributing to the Fund and Trust but not the 3 picks.
Secondly, and at the same time, the pullback and subsequent sale of Vodafone from Woodford's managed funds had a disproportionately negative impact on the 3 picks as it was originally a 33% holding.
This also forced my hand, creating a negative timing issue, with a sale and purchase of BT which unfortunately had already given gains to the funds but forcing me to buy within touching distance of recent highs meant that no such gain was contributed to the 3 picks option.



Related post links:

Thursday 25 July 2013

May 2013: Portfolio Update.

OK catching up on May, percentage gains were led by Microsoft, Aviva, Morrison, IG,  and GE. 
And dividends came in from Aviva, Apple, and BG Group.
Supermarkets were the only fallers in the month with both Morrison and Tesco falling back.

My portfolio gained 4.15% in the month and Year to date gains now stand at 19.92% v. the FTSE 100's similarly healthy 11.62%.
19.92% following a small pullback from current year highs when my portfolio flirted with an all-time 100% gain as shown in the earlier post 20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD 29 mth
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
R-R 1205.00p 36.99% 1.80% 6.64% 37.95% 93.42%
National Grid 784.50p 16.03% 5.23% -4.27% 11.59% 41.86%
Aviva 333.80p 9.10% 4.89% 9.41% -10.51% -1.20%
BP 473.45p 4.80% 4.89% 1.51% 11.45% 3.44%
Apple ** $449.68 4.82% 2.04% 3.83% -10.21% 21.50%
William Hill 442.70p 4.68% 2.63% 3.92% 34.40% 140.37%
IG Group 579.00p 4.84% 3.81% 7.52% 28.67% 21.33%
General Electric ** $23.33 2.32% 2.80% 7.08% 18.30% 57.00%
Centrica 380.00p 2.21% 4.56% 2.43% 13.91% 14.60%
Microsoft ** $34.88 2.19% 2.20% 9.94% 38.89% 28.24%
SSE 1554.00p 1.99% 5.43% -2.19% 9.59% 26.86%
Vodafone 191.95p 1.73% 5.39% -0.78% 24.28% 19.12%
BAE Systems 405.10p 1.88% 5.04% 6.38% 20.24% 22.76%
Morrisons 273.80p 1.60% 4.65% 8.10% 4.11% 2.32%
Imperial Tobacco 2371.00p 1.53% 4.90% 3.38% 3.38% 3.38%
BG Group 1213.00p 1.64% 1.47% -3.80% 19.80% -6.40%
Tesco 365.45p 1.36% 4.15% -7.75% 8.76% -8.39%
Cash 0.29% 0.00%
100.00% 3.33%
1 Month YTD 29 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1893.55 -  1972.20 4.15%
- YTD gain         1644.62 - 1972.20 19.92%
- 29 month gain 1264.20 - 1972.20 56.00%
- 41 month gain 1000.00 - 1972.20 97.22%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6430.12 - 6583.09 2.38%
- YTD gain         5897.81 - 6583.09 11.62%
- 29 month gain 5971.01 - 6583.09 10.25%
- 41 month gain 5412.88 - 6583.09 21.62%
Transactions:
17/05/2013 Div Aviva @ 9p per share
20/05/2013 Div Apple @ 169.89p per share
31/05/2013 Div BG Group @ 9.03p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5193 as at 31/05/13


The chart picture is starting to look more and more detached as the 2 indexes begin to travel different tangents.


Click to enlarge, close to return.

With more than half the year still to go it seems strange to see a near 20% gain year to date but with plenty of dividends to come in the coming months it would seem possible for my portfolio to consolidate its current position if a small degree of stability in global markest can be maintained.


Earlier posts:
20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
April 2013: Portfolio Update.March 2013: Portfolio Update.
February 2013: Portfolio update.
January 2013: Portfolio Update.
December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).