April 2015: Portfolio Update

So with April coming to a close, and early May bringing the UK General Elections for 2015, and after months of poll data suggesting various permutations of a hung parliament that had threatened to produce a long drawn out period of uncertainty, the outcome has instead been a more decisive shock and awe result.

UK markets and indices have zigged and zagged with increasing volatility as the May 7th date came closer, and then surged, along with sterling, after the unexpectedly clean result produced a party majority.

In line with that, or in spite of it, the FTSE 100 has still managed to create new all time highs in 2015 and breach the near mythical promised land beyond 7000.

And, more satisfyingly my own portfolio has also continued to achieve new highs this year, with April's close marking a total 129.83% gain in the 5 years and 4 months since I started measuring and working with this portfolio.

Anyway the last month has seen a bounce in Microsoft (+15.52%), after a better than expected quarterly update (Interesting end to the week!), and R-R (+9.76%), after its own well received news of a new CEO and a record order.
Elsewhere,  BG Group surged 42.58%, following a confirmed and agreed bid from Royal Dutch Shell (BG Group shelling out?).

BP has also basked in the searchlight for potential bid targets, with a gain of +7.55%, as well as being buoyed by a recovering oil price.

Imperial Tobacco has also benefited from analyst upgrades ahead of a well recieved trading update in May.

Apple initially surged, in aftermarket trading, to new highs of circa $134, after posting another good set of pre- Apple Watch quarterly results, but have since pulled back with the wider sentiment in American markets (Interesting end to the week!).

William Hill also suffered after an update included the impact of a bad week of football results continuing to hold back performance (Interesting end to the week!).

Other holdings, BAE, SSE, Centrica, Barratt, BAT, along with Imperial Tobacco and William Hill, were also hampered with pre-election concerns.

As mentioned in my previous post reviewing 2014 dividends 2014 Dividends Profiled., April is a poor dividend month for my portfolio with, as suggested, the only receipt coming from GE.

So in a difficult volatile month ahead of May's General Election, my portfolio managed a gain of +3.78% v. +2.77% by the FTSE100, making +9.96% for the year to date.

Its worth noting that sterling strengthened against the dollar too, rising to $1.536 from $1.483, which does impact recent gains in my US$ holdings: Apple, GE, Microsoft, and Verizon, as they convert back into sterling.

I have also added new funds, and made an additional purchase in BG Group ahead of the deal with Royal Dutch Shell.
By using a unit price, the funds go in at nil gain.
Its a slight gamble given the timescale and planned completion next year but, with my expectation being that it will go through I feel there is a premium to be gained by topping up in this way (BG Group shelling out?), and looking to find myself with a holding in the higher yielding Royal Dutch Shell.
Clearly I'm also expecting a higher oil price eventually for both Royal Dutch Shell and BP to maintain dividends and renew share price gains.

			Forecast	1 month	YTD	52 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1046.00p	24.89%	2.27%	9.76%	20.23%	59.34%
Aviva	527.00p	12.55%	4.01%	-2.41%	8.77%	45.66%
National Grid	879.00p	12.71%	5.09%	1.62%	-4.26%	58.95%
BP	470.00p	9.62%	5.56%	7.55%	14.36%	11.07%
Apple **	$125.15	8.37%	1.36%	-2.87%	15.08%	123.86%
IG Group	737.00p	4.36%	4.25%	3.95%	2.50%	54.44%
Imperial Tobacco	3192.00p	2.94%	4.40%	7.73%	12.55%	41.30%
William Hill	361.00p	2.70%	3.51%	-2.70%	-0.41%	96.01%
BAT	3592.00p	2.24%	4.35%	2.98%	2.63%	7.09%
Vodafone	231.00p	2.08%	5.10%	5.00%	3.75%	-8.44%
Microsoft **	$48.64	2.14%	2.09%	15.52%	6.29%	76.94%
Banco Santander	488.00p	1.87%	2.78%	-3.17%	-10.38%	-10.57%
General Electric **	$27.08	1.89%	2.90%	5.40%	8.77%	80.31%
BAE Systems	508.00p	1.67%	4.12%	-3.05%	7.63%	53.94%
Barratt Dev.	519.00p	1.52%	4.45%	-1.89%	10.19%	45.19%
SSE	1547.00p	1.40%	5.92%	3.27%	-4.62%	26.29%
Verizon **	3284.86p	1.41%	3.75%	0.16%	9.44%	18.36%
Centrica	255.00p	1.05%	4.92%	0.79%	-8.60%	-23.10%
BG Group	1182.00p	2.71%	1.89%	42.58%	36.65%	-3.83%
Cash		1.89%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.50%
				1 month	YTD	52 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2214.53 -	2298.27			3.78%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2298.27				9.96%
- 52 month gain 1264.20 -	2298.27					81.80%
- 64 month gain 1000.00 -	2298.27					129.83%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6773.04 -	6960.63			2.77%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6960.63				6.01%
- 52 month gain 5971.01 -	6960.63					16.57%
- 64 month gain 5412.88 -	6960.63					28.59%
Transactions:
10/04/2015		Charges
10/04/2015	Buy	Funds added @ 2.215 (April Index close)
10/04/2015	Buy	BG @ 407.39p per share
29/04/2015	Div	General Electric @ 12.72p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.53553 as at 30/04/15
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.36933 as at 30/04/15

As mentioned last month, I have also had to increase the scale to accommodate new highs, which present a satisfying picture.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

Looking ahead, the General Election (as we now know), did continue to affect markets with surges and pull backs, and, a further surge following the unexpectedly quick and decisive outcome.
I'm sure that won't be the end of it though as more questions and uncertainty continue to show up on the horizon such as the future of Greece in Europe, the future of the UK in Europe, and the future of the UK even? 
And this on top of the usual questions of Chinese demand and global economic growth, relationships with Russia, and the Middle East.
It really doesn't ever end, does it?

But, I am also watching a few shares (I have missed a few too it seems), and hope to make further purchases in the coming months.

Good luck.

Related Posts:

- Interesting end to the week!

- BG Group shelling out?

- 2014 Dividends Profiled.

Previous Posts:

- March 2015: Portfolio Update.

- February 2015: Portfolio Update.

- January 2015: Portfolio Update.

- December 2014: Portfolio Update.

February 2015: Portfolio Update.

New all time highs in February, for both myself and the FTSE100, with both indexes managing 2.92% gains in the month.
A reasonable month for dividends with payments received from Vodafone, Banco Santander, Verizon, Apple, Imperial Tobacco, and IG.
However, it was disappointing to see a significant fall of 17% in a significant utility, Centrica, which as the old British Gas has around 50% of the UK market.
And, despite their use as a cheap political shot across the bows, aren't utilities supposed to be safe?

It has been a long term holding, but I have to say that, even accounting for dividends, Centrica has been hugely disappointing as an investment, and it will need to significantly improve its prospects following this dividend cut.
Curious to see 2 elements of the old British Gas: BG Group; and Centrica, now in the dog house of my portfolio, and in danger of being culled.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	50 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	949.00p	23.75%	2.51%	6.51%	9.08%	44.56%
Aviva	539.00p	13.49%	3.85%	2.08%	11.25%	48.98%
National Grid	887.00p	13.48%	5.04%	-5.24%	-3.39%	60.40%
BP	448.00p	9.64%	5.78%	5.66%	9.00%	5.87%
Apple **	$128.46	8.99%	1.32%	6.99%	17.50%	128.55%
IG Group	731.00p	4.54%	4.34%	0.69%	1.67%	53.18%
Imperial Tobacco	3193.00p	3.10%	4.47%	2.21%	12.59%	41.34%
William Hill	378.00p	2.97%	3.40%	0.27%	4.28%	105.24%
BAT	3782.00p	2.48%	4.04%	0.80%	8.06%	12.75%
Vodafone	224.00p	2.12%	5.25%	-4.68%	0.61%	-11.22%
Microsoft **	$43.85	2.02%	4.24%	5.91%	-4.69%	58.66%
Banco Santander	475.00p	1.92%	2.83%	5.56%	-12.76%	-12.96%
General Electric **	$25.99	1.89%	3.02%	6.15%	3.84%	72.13%
BAE Systems	533.00p	1.84%	3.92%	4.92%	12.92%	61.52%
Barrat Dev.	516.00p	1.59%	4.39%	12.66%	9.55%	44.35%
SSE	1573.00p	1.50%	5.85%	-2.24%	-3.02%	28.41%
Verizon **	3204.43p	1.45%	3.78%	5.60%	6.76%	15.46%
Centrica	244.00p	1.06%	5.80%	-17.01%	-12.54%	-26.42%
BG Group	958.00p	0.97%	2.05%	8.00%	10.75%	-26.08%
Cash		1.22%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.68%
				1 month	YTD	50 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain  2161.51 -	2235.05			2.92%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2235.05				6.93%
- 50 month gain 1264.20 -	2235.05					76.79%
- 62 month gain 1000.00 -	2235.05					123.50%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain  6749.40 -	6946.66			2.92%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6946.66				5.80%
- 50 month gain 5971.01 -	6946.66					16.34%
- 62 month gain 5412.88 -	6946.66					28.34%
Transactions:
04/02/2015	Div	Vodaphone @ 3.60p per share
06/02/2015	Div	Banco Santander @ 8.70p per share
06/02/2015	Div	Verizon @ 30.98p per share
16/02/2015	Div	Apple @ 25.53p per share
17/02/2015	Div	Imp.Tobacco @ 89.30p per share
27/02/2015	Div	IG Group @ 5.75p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5438 as at 28/02/15
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.37889 as at 28/02/15

So, new all time highs make for a satisfying chart! 
Fingers crossed I will be extending the height of the scales again soon.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

OK so 2015 has started well, which seems a little curious given the unknown future for Greece within Europe, and for different reasons, Britain's future in Europe. A Grexit and a Brexit?
More imminently, the dangers of a hung parliament or Labour majority in the upcoming General Election will, I'm sure, create turbulence across the UK economy, until the unknowns become answered.

Either way, I've never been one to guess or try to reposition my portfolio one way or another. Individual opportunities but not the whole. And inevitably, once the dust has settled, we might be asking ourselves what the fuss was all about?

Previous Posts:
- January 2015: Portfolio Update.
- December 2014: Portfolio Update.

August 2014: Portfolio Update.

Two thirds of the year down, and my portfolio continues to run a small year to date loss of -0.34% v. the FTSE100's 1.05%.
Very disappointing but understandable given the difficulties and setbacks from my largest holding, Rolls-Royce, the 2 supermarket investments, Tesco and Morrison, and then the strength of the pound against the dollar.

Still disappointing, and probably should have seen me axe the supermarkets.

So the month is traditionally by best for dividends received as National Grid payout in August, with further contributions from Imperial Tobacco, Apple, Verizon, and Vodafone.

The only swings of note in the portfolio coming from a renaissance in Apple, +9.08%, and the sinking of Tesco, -10.87%.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	44 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1021.00p	26.78%	2.49%	-1.83%	-18.42%	55.53%
National Grid	899.00p	14.33%	4.82%	5.15%	14.09%	62.57%
Aviva	521.00p	11.08%	3.68%	3.37%	15.86%	54.20%
BP	481.65p	5.08%	5.18%	-0.49%	-1.31%	6.32%
Apple **	$102.50	6.99%	1.63%	9.08%	27.20%	69.61%
Vodafone	206.75p	2.05%	5.50%	4.42%	-18.05%	-18.05%
Verizon **	3001.31p	1.42%	3.79%	-0.58%	8.14%	8.14%
IG Group	607.00p	3.95%	4.71%	-0.49%	-1.46%	27.20%
William Hill	350.00p	2.89%	3.63%	-0.85%	-12.91%	90.04%
Imperial Tobacco	2627.00p	2.67%	5.34%	2.18%	12.36%	16.29%
BAT	3553.50p	2.44%	4.43%	2.02%	9.74%	5.94%
General Electric **	$25.98	1.84%	2.71%	5.09%	-7.80%	60.02%
Microsoft **	$45.43	2.04%	2.12%	7.08%	20.73%	52.88%
BAE Systems	445.10p	1.61%	4.69%	4.00%	2.32%	34.88%
Centrica	319.40p	1.45%	5.69%	3.37%	-8.14%	-3.68%
SSE	1518.00p	1.52%	5.92%	4.19%	10.80%	23.92%
Morrisons	177.50p	0.81%	6.95%	5.03%	-31.99%	-33.67%
BG Group	1201.50p	1.27%	1.70%	2.52%	-7.40%	-7.29%
Tesco	229.95p	0.67%	3.78%	-10.87%	-31.22%	-42.36%
Barrat Dev.	369.90p	1.19%	3.84%	5.99%	3.48%	3.48%
Cash		7.92%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.34%
				1 Month	YTD	44 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2092.15 -	2132.02			1.91%
- YTD gain         1644.62	2132.02				-0.34%
- 44 month gain 1264.20 -	2132.02					68.65%
- 56 month gain 1000.00 -	2132.02					113.20%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6730.11 -	6819.75			1.33%
- YTD gain         5897.81	6819.75				1.05%
- 44 month gain 5971.01 -	6819.75					14.21%
- 56 month gain 5412.88 -	6819.75					25.99%
Transactions:
05/08/2014	Div	Verizon @ 26.56p per share
06/08/2014	Div	Vodafone @ 10.55p per share
18/08/2014	Div	Apple @ 23.59p per share
19/08/2014	Div	Imperial Tobacco @ 38.8p per share
20/08/2014	Div	National Grid @ 27.54p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.65994 as at 31/08/14

Chartwise, things are back pushing the ceiling of all time highs so its not all bad news, more one of consolidation.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So looking ahead, one topic I have chosen to ignore is the Scottish referendum, mainly because I don't understand the outcome but the sooner the better as it is the uncertainty that has the biggest effect. 

Anyway, I have added new funds to my portfolio, rather than re-invest, in the poor deals now on offer.
These have actually come from many years invested in the National Savings Index Linked certificates so it has been disappointing to give them up but at least allows me to recycle the funds back into my ISA.
I will be looking to invest most of this before the year-end and any traditional year-end rally, although I also like to get past October and its historic "Black" events


Previous Posts:
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.