October 2018: Dividend Pipeline and Apple comparison

As mentioned, after a bumper couple of months, expected October dividends will be a little scarce on the ground, as will the run to the end of the year.
Through August and September, all 4 of my big hitters, Lloyds, National Grid, Aviva, and BP delivered a payout, ably supported by a number of other chunky yielding companies.

As things stand though, for the year to date and v. the start of the year portfolio figure, actual dividends received have amounted to a yield of 4.12% (not adjusted for any funds removed), which is a figure I'm happy with. Although, it also has to be noted that this may have been at the expense of some capital growth, so I continue to look for a happy balance.

One thing that occurred to me to check was my current yield on Apple, which has a historic figure of 1.6% for the year ending Sept 2017, and a consensus forecast estimate of 1.2%.
After the 15% US withholding tax and a weaker sterling exchange rate, the net yield to me is around 0.9%, and a forecast estimate of 1.03%.
However, this does not always show the bigger picture given the strong long term capital growth that Apple has given. 
Just for a little comparison, if I was to take the current forecast net yield (incl. 15% withholding tax and an exchange rate of $1: £1.3), and pitch it against my original investment in Apple, I see that I am actually receiving a net yield of 6.15%. Perhaps the best of both worlds and long may it continue to appreciate its share price and increase its dividend.

Looking ahead:
	Rate
Company	c.	p.	Xd	Paid
National Grid		15.49	23/11/2017	10/01/2018
Vodafone		4.84	23/11/2017	02/02/2018
BAT		48.8	27/12/2018	07/02/2018
Apple	63		12/02/2018	15/02/2018
SSE		28.4	18/01/2018	16/03/2018
Berkeley Group		56.75	01/03/2018	23/03/2018
RDS 'B'	47		15/02/2018	26/03/2018
Imperial Brands		59.51	22/02/2018	29/03/2018
BP	10		15/02/2018	29/03/2018
Galliford Try		28	15/03/2018	06/04/2018
BAT		48.8	22/03/2018	09/05/2018
Aviva		19	05/04/2018	17/05/2018
Apple	73		14/05/2018	17/05/2018
Lloyds		2.05	19/04/2018	29/05/2018
RDS 'B'	47		10/05/2018	18/06/2018
BP	10		10/05/2018	22/06/2018
Imperial Brands		28.43	24/05/2018	29/06/2018
Vodafone		10.23	07/06/2018	03/08/2018
BAT		48.8	28/06/2018	08/08/2018
National Grid		30.44	31/05/2018	15/08/2018
Apple	73		10/08/2018	16/08/2018
RDS 'B'	47		09/08/2018	17/09/2018
SSE		66.3	26/07/2018	21/09/2018
BP	10.25		09/08/2018	21/09/2018
Aviva		9.25	16/08/2018	24/09/2018
Standard Life Aberdeen		7.3	16/08/2018	25/09/2018
Lloyds		1.07	16/08/2018	26/09/2018
Imperial Brands		28.43	23/08/2018	28/09/2018
Standard Chartered	6		09/08/2018	22/10/2018
BAT		48.8	04/10/2018	15/11/2018
Galliford Try		49	08/11/2018	05/12/2018
Imperial Brands			22/11/2018	31/12/2018

August 2018: Portfolio Update

August brought further swings with my portfolio falling a smaller -0.51% v. a -4.08% fall in the FTSE 100.
YTD that leaves my index marginally positive for the year to date at 0.93% v. a -3.32% decline in the FTSE.
The big movement and news coming from Apple (in my portfolio at least), which once breaching $207.05 became the first US company with a trillion dollar market capitalisation which was enough to see it run as high as $227.
This came as Apple reported consensus beating 3rd quarter results (www.apple.com: apple-reports-third-quarter-results).
Elsewhere there were widespread falls led by Vodafone (-11.56%), and BAT (-11.41%). With just 2 other gainers in Standard Life (+1.47%), and Galliford Try (+4.02%), in addition to Apple, the falls managed to outweigh the gains.

And after last month's dividend drought, it was nice to see a good contribution this month with National Grid leading the way.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	59.30p	23.61%	5.60%	-4.94%	-12.87%	-3.96%
Aviva	485.00p	12.32%	6.04%	-3.00%	-4.24%	35.59%
National Grid	810.00p	11.89%	5.84%	-0.41%	-7.14%	67.37%
BP	547.30p	11.95%	5.64%	-4.54%	4.71%	31.55%
Apple **	$227.63	12.82%	1.02%	20.54%	39.73%	503.33%
BAT	3721.50p	2.48%	5.41%	-11.41%	-25.84%	10.95%
Imperial Brands	2744.00p	3.85%	6.85%	-6.09%	-7.25%	14.45%
Royal Dutch Shell	2540.50p	2.75%	5.65%	-4.90%	1.28%	-1.31%
Vodafone	164.50p	1.87%	8.26%	-11.56%	-27.79%	-32.14%
SSE	1253.00p	1.21%	7.78%	0.24%	-5.08%	8.87%
Galliford Try	970.00p	2.62%	7.21%	4.02%	24.42%	19.16%
Standard Chartered	627.10p	2.97%	2.72%	-8.85%	-11.36%	-11.36%
Standard Life Aberdeen	316.90p	4.20%	7.49%	1.47%	-6.10%	-6.08%
Cash		5.46%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.95%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2633.40	2608.23			-0.51%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2608.23				0.93%
- 104 mnth gain 1000.00	2608.23					160.82%
Unit Price - £	2.60823	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7678.20	7432.42			-4.08%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7432.42				-3.32%
- 104 mnth gain 5412.88	7432.42					37.31%
Transactions:
03/08/2018	Div	Vodafone @ 9.09p per share
08/08/2018	Div	BAT @ 48.80p per share
16/08/2018	Div	National Grid @ 30.44p per share
20/08/2018	Div	Apple @ 48.69p per share
31/08/2018		Funds Removed @ 2.60823 (Aug.18 Index close)
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 13 as at 31/08/2018
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.11 as at 31/08/2018

Click to enlarge, close to return.

May 2018: Portfolio Update.

May proved a month of musings and indecision before finally taking the plunge and offloading my stake in Berkeley Group in order to facilitate some new additions although these were also delayed as a widening choice proved a delaying factor.

As it was in the month, my portfolio improved by 4.04% ahead of the FTSE's 2.25% aided by a significant dividend contribution from Lloyd's, Aviva, BAT, and Apple.

Small additions were made to Imperial Brands, National Grid, and Vodafone.

Markets are proving volatile at the moment with a push and pull of potential interest rate increases and Brexit fallouts.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	63.21p	24.93%	5.36%	-2.24%	-7.13%	2.37%
Aviva	510.80p	12.85%	5.69%	-3.44%	0.85%	42.81%
Berkeley Group	4192.96p	11.86%	4.06%	2.97%	-0.10%	78.75%
National Grid	833.30p	12.12%	5.65%	-1.18%	-4.47%	73.82%
BP	576.30p	12.46%	5.10%	7.12%	10.25%	38.52%
Apple **	$186.87	10.19%	1.23%	19.26%	12.12%	384.15%
BAT	3869.00p	2.55%	5.27%	-3.25%	-22.90%	15.35%
Imperial Brands	2710.00p	3.77%	7.09%	2.66%	-8.40%	13.03%
Royal Dutch Shell	2677.00p	2.87%	5.11%	2.90%	6.72%	3.99%
Vodafone	191.82p	1.93%	6.67%	-9.08%	-17.71%	-23.11%
SSE	1367.50p	1.31%	6.90%	-0.98%	3.60%	18.82%
Galliford Try	962.50p	1.66%	7.45%	4.85%	32.24%	23.22%
Cash		1.51%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.89%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2531.24	2633.40			4.04%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2633.40				1.90%
- 101 month gain 1000.00	2633.40					163.34%
Unit Price - £	2.63340	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7509.30	7678.20			2.25%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7678.20				-0.12%
- 101 month gain 5412.88	7678.20					41.85%
Transactions:
09/05/2018	Div	BAT @ 48.80p per share
15/05/2018	Sell	Berkeley Group @ 4192.96p per share
17/05/2018	Div	Aviva @ 19.00p per share
21/05/2018	Div	Apple @ 40.98p per share
23/05/2018	Buy	Imp.Brands @ 2797.11p per share
23/05/2018	Buy	National Grid @ 891.95p per share
23/05/2018	Buy	Vodafone @ 200.22p per share
29/05/2018	Div	Lloyds @ 2.05p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 1.32994 as at 31/05/18
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.13619 as at 31/05/18

Click to enlarge, close to return.

A quandary of a quagmire or quagmired in quandaries.

OK, so where do we go from here, in bringing things up to date, it feels like my portfolio has stagnated a little to the point where I seem to be tracking the FTSE's performance.
But, this is probably more a case of patience required and continuing to play the same long game that I have tried to follow this last 9 years.
That being said, some changes have been required and that step has made me a little more impatient and drawn into looking at my portfolio through a different set of eyes.

There are a few candidates that I have alluded to and, in turn these have opened up fresh channels with more candidate but as things stand, I need to divest some holdings in order to invest in anything new.

I've managed to start a small holding in a recovery share though, Galliford Try.

Companies like Standard Chartered also come to mind which in some respects is following a similar path to recovery that Lloyds has followed, but it is a little further behind.
I think it also has greater prospects than Lloyds given its extended international presence particularly in the Far East where it has historically been very strong.
I seem to have been an onlooker to Standard Chartered over the last 10 years or so without ever feeling the opportunity to invest has presented itself.

In looking at banking and finance, Barclays is also receiving a lot of analyst coverage for a similar turning point on its road to recovery.

Lloyds and Aviva hold a substantial and influential part of my portfolio with no plans to change.

Across the pond, I have long had a hankering for Disney shares given the ongoing ability to recycle existing content to new generations whilst also producing new content. The addition of Marvel and potentially Fox only adds to this content arsenal. In turn, all of this vast library or content is recycled in a different way through its theme parks, and potential new streaming service.

Amongst current holdings, I have been adding to Imperial Brands and National Grid, and it seems a missed opportunity not to have added to Imperial Brands more substantially.

BAT has also pulled back with Imperial Brands and Phillip Morris, but after its own big purchase last year of Reynolds, it still has lots of opportunity to increase margins and profits.

I also wonder if there should be a future proof scenario, which can now be much more focused than the tech bubble of 2000 in that the surviving giants are amongst us. What will a list of technology shares like Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla, Apple etc. etc. look like in another 10, 20. 30 years and more?
I have already successfully held Apple, and Microsoft. Cisco was less successful though.

I have considered offloading Vodafone to raise funds. For me its transformation isn't clear or fast enough. But, the sudden rush by brokers to reiterate forecasts of 20-30% share price gains, and the Liberty global asset purchases, has given me pause, so I will wait a little longer.

A further sale of Apple has also crossed my mind with the dollar strengthening again. Whilst dividends and cash piles continue to grow, the company is heavily dependent on a possibly maturing smartphone market (which it transformed), but, if it is maturing, I'm not sure where Apple can go next. It seems not to have brought many new things to market when so much has been hinted and promised e.g. Apple TV.
Instead it continues to play cat and mouse with analysts over quarterly sales and estimates but with the recent chapter revealing a record Q2 and new share price highs, I'm still holding. Perhaps the repatriation of profits held abroad will trigger something more. 
I would like to see Apple rated on a multiple at least on a par with Google (renamed Alphabet), which is only moderately higher but would see a substantially higher share price.

SSE remains a small holding in my portfolio, weakened by political uncertainty but still delivering strongly on its dividend.

A strengthening oil price is working wonders on a recovering BP and Royal Dutch Shell

Berkeley is my current consideration, having delivered a 76% share price gain and a further 8.26% from dividends it has become a strong substantial component of my portfolio, supported by a goodly number of hold forecasts.
However, do those hold forecasts combined with an uncertain and cyclical housing market give me enough conviction to sell some or all my holding to recycle elsewhere.
Does Berkeley's concentration on London and the South create its own niche, or does this exposure to London have its potential pitfalls given the recent climate?

So that is the conundrum, a sale of Berkeley could allow me to add to my Galliford Try holding to keep a construction and housing exposure with a potentially better opportunity in recovery, and/or give me the funds to add a stakes in other companies currently attracting me with Standard Chartered, Barclays or Imperial Brands leading my list.