More reasons to shop at Morrisons?

Morrison 181.40p, -3.4p (-1.84%)

So there goes Dalton Philips, albeit slowly, I am picturing him going out through the awful revolving door that fronts my local Morrison store. 
Intended to keep heat in perhaps but it does a better job of keeping customers out as it stutters to a standstill from people trying to squeeze in (or out), add a few trolleys (from outside as well as instore), and hey presto, its chaos.
And this might be after queuing to get through one of the worst self checkout terminals of all the supermarkets I have tried.

And 5 years in charge, wow, time flies.
Its a shame that it has taken so long, and when you add on the additional time of his predecessor, Marc Bolland (doing so well at Marks & Spencers), who jumped ship in the honeymoon period of his strategy, and having spent the funds on stores and acquisitions, and embarked upon a borrow, to buyback share strategy its been a long drawn out series of disappointments to get to this stage.

I guess I am feeling a little frustrated and disappointed about my venture into supermarkets given the apparently simple metrics of product quality, availability, pricing, and sourcing, along with the added value of customer experience in terms of location, access, good parking, and store environment.
It seems both Morrison's and Tesco have failed to do this in recent years being distracted by expansion, and looking through the windows of others.
More recently, these super logistics companies, have started cutting back their product ranges so I now have to frequent more than one of them or look to source online from the manufacturers of my preferred products.
Which, I imagine, is not what they would like and runs the risk of a wholesale change in my shopping loyalties. 
Tesco take note, that your clubcard database for me is useless if all my products are bought elsewhere.

My view on supermarkets, as an investment, was not necessarily about continued aggressive growth through their own efforts, as they are really only cannibalising each others market share but by maintaining that in an inflating economy ie. the pie from which they all take becomes bigger each year as the economy grows/inflates.
I also coined a phrase a few years back regarding another of my investments as it appeared to ride the crest of a wave with increasing profits, and that was to suggest that the real measure of success won't be visible for a few years and that it would only come when we are able to look back and ask if the profits were spent wisely, in the case of Tesco, and Morrison's (and my other investment), the answer appears to be a lengthening list of noes.

The unfortunate thing is that success does breed apathy in terms of loosening the controls and measures that brought success in the first place, and then, as time moves on, successions kick in, and new blood, which never seems to feel part of the journey (remember the word is succession), is typically more free in spending the cash or filling out the existing structure/administrative cost base.

Anyway, I have always found it a little odd that my in store Morrison's experience always seemed more expensive than Tesco, and even Sainsbury's and along with the (in the past), shorter opening hours, find it easy to understand why it has struggled to dupe shoppers into entering. But that's just my experience at my local stores where the restaurant seems to be the success.

The share price rose yesterday on the news, and looks to be falling with the wider index today following deflation and growth risks, but the concern for Morrison's now is where to turn next. 
Philips is stepping down in March but without the enthusiasm and energy of a committed CEO, and a clear strategy and performance to measure, Morrison is rudderless.

Related links:
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk: Morrisons ousts Dalton Philips after Christmas sales drop

Related posts:
- Morrison's Preliminary Results: "Different and Better than Ever"?

December 2014: Portfolio Update.

So that was 2015, now consigned to history and with it the disappointment of my first loss in the 5 years since I put a base on this portfolio and the discipline of measuring its performance against the FTSE100.

Strangely it has managed to just pip the FTSE100 at the last, and end the year -2.3%, as opposed to the FTSE100 finishing - 2.71% down.

So thats a full 12 months since my portfolio's high and a full 12 months put down to consolidation.

Although, there has been some changes notably, the all too late selling of Tesco and Morrisons; new additions in Barrat Developments and Banco Santander, and top ups to BP, Aviva, and R-R.

There was also the addition of Verizon as a result of Vodafone's dealmaking.

At 9 individual trades, thats slightly more than my typical 7/8 per annum, but includes an aborted attempt to put in place a regular purchase plan on Barrat, which ended up as 2 trades for what would have been 1 normal trading tranche.

So December proved to be a roller coaster with the early part of the month seeming to signal the start of an end of year rally, then with the bottom falling out of things, I think I was down more than 6% for the year before a late rally brought my portfolio back to finish the year year -2.3% (-0.66% in December).

The FTSE100 suffered a little worse to end the year -2.71%, after a -2.33% fall in December.

My portfolio benefitting from a few dividends from BAE, Microsoft, William Hill, and BP.

As briefly alluded to, I also added to my existing holdings in BP and Aviva which I hope will yield additional dividends and gains in the year ahead and beyond that.

I have to express my disappointment in the Supermarket sector's performance as my thoughts were that, as it provided one of our most basic staples, that my investments would actually be forever holdings but its seems that poor management and strategy can outweigh and undermine even those basic strengths.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	48 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	870.00p	23.28%	2.78%	3.26%	-30.48%	32.53%
National Grid	918.10p	14.92%	4.74%	-1.28%	16.51%	66.02%
Aviva	484.50p	12.97%	4.06%	-4.63%	7.09%	33.92%
BP	411.00p	9.46%	6.27%	0.78%	-6.49%	-2.87%
Apple **	$110.38	8.18%	1.53%	-6.84%	45.88%	94.52%
Vodafone	222.65p	2.25%	5.05%	-4.83%	-11.75%	-11.75%
Verizon **	3001.41p	1.45%	4.02%	-7.18%	8.14%	8.14%
IG Group	719.00p	4.78%	4.03%	6.13%	16.72%	50.67%
William Hill	362.50p	3.05%	3.57%	8.21%	-9.80%	96.82%
Imperial Tobacco	2836.00p	2.94%	4.97%	-4.19%	21.30%	25.54%
BAT	3500.00p	2.45%	4.43%	-7.76%	8.09%	4.35%
General Electric **	$25.27	1.95%	2.95%	-4.24%	-4.49%	65.77%
Microsoft **	$46.45	2.26%	2.19%	-2.48%	31.47%	66.47%
BAE Systems	472.00p	1.74%	4.39%	-1.89%	8.51%	43.03%
Centrica	279.00p	1.29%	6.37%	-1.97%	-19.76%	-15.86%
SSE	1622.00p	1.65%	5.49%	-1.10%	18.39%	32.41%
BG Group	865.00p	0.93%	2.37%	-3.91%	-33.33%	-33.26%
Barrat Dev.	471.00p	1.55%	3.02%	2.32%	31.76%	31.76%
Banco Santander	544.50p	2.35%	6.46%	-5.71%	-0.22%	-0.22%
Cash		0.54%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.91%
				1 Month	YTD	48 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain  2104.11 -	2090.17			-0.66%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2090.17				-2.30%
- 48 month gain 1264.20 -	2090.17					65.33%
- 60 month gain 1000.00 -	2090.17					109.02%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6722.62 -	6566.09			-2.33%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6566.09				-2.71%
- 48 month gain 5971.01 -	6566.09					9.97%
- 60 month gain 5412.88 -	6566.09					21.30%
Transactions:
01/12/2014	Div	BAE @ 8.2p per share
05/12/2014	Div	William Hill @ 4.89p per share
10/12/2014	Buy	BP @ 407.39p per share
15/12/2014	Div	Microsoft @ 16.50p per share
15/12/2014	Buy	BP @ 387.71p per share
16/12/2014	Buy	Aviva @ 464.00p per share
19/12/2014	Div	BP @ 5.8p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5586 as at 31/12/14
***  Banco Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 21% withholding tax
**** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.28769 as at 31/12/14

Click to enlarge, close to return.

The chart serves to illustrate the bobbing along pattern of consolidation, that follows the fact that my portfolio failed to break the all time high set at the end of December 2013, so lets hope that 2015 will bring better fortune.

And whilst, January is already bringing its ups and downs, I am comforted by the fact that my portfolio is still within touching distance of new highs.
Dividends from R-R and National Grid are due and will hopefully help to offset the financial machinations and change of strategy affecting Banco Santander.

So with that summarised it just leaves my wishing you all a happy and prosperous 2015!


Previous Posts:
- November 2014: Portfolio Update.
- October 2014: Portfolio Update.
- September 2014: Portfolio Update
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.

September 2014: Portfolio Update

Well September heralds the fall, and markets have continued to fall with global headlines continuing to affect market and trader sentiment, despite none it being new or any more sensational than headlines of previous years.

But, some return to normal behaviour as the wider FTSE 100 fell further in the month than my portfolio and the 2 indexes now sit largely comparable on the 2014 year to date performance.

The gloom for me coming in the foreknowledge of a 15% fall in my largest holding, Rolls-Royce as of yesterday's trading statement/profit guidance/profit warning, which will now have a large say in my portfolio's October and full year performance courtesy of its 25% weighting in my portfolio,... a buying opportunity perhaps?

Anyway as previously posted the other key news to my portfolio being the selling of Tesco and Morrisons as I look to tweak my portfolio slightly. I may yet decide to sell BG Group too, as I build a nice war-chest for this current market consolidation, which I will look to feed back into the market over the coming weeks.

And whilst the table below shows that, at 30 September, cash stood at 8.23%, of my portfolio, that was before the sale of Morrisons, and Tesco.

Mainly as the sales were towards the end of the month, and the funds not re-positioned, I have, as I have done with some previous sales, continued to show both of those holdings but with their sale price.

The actual cash balance after the sales now sits at 9.55% of my portfolio's close of September value, and I may yet add more.

Dividends for September came in from BG, Microsoft, BP, SSE, Tesco, Morrisons and BAT.

Tesco easily led the fallers followed by R-R, BP, BG and Morrisons.

BP continuing to be mired in the legal damages resulting from the Gulf of Mexico Oil disaster.

So despite the flurry of dividends, and it has been a good year, its disappointing to see my portfolio reach the end of the third quarter still down on the year to date for 2014, and thats before the October fall in R-R.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	45 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	964.00p	25.70%	2.64%	-5.58%	-22.97%	46.84%
National Grid	888.00p	14.38%	4.88%	-1.22%	12.69%	60.58%
Aviva	524.00p	11.32%	3.66%	0.58%	16.52%	55.09%
BP	453.00p	4.85%	5.50%	-5.95%	-7.18%	0.00%
Apple **	$100.75	7.13%	1.65%	0.36%	27.66%	70.22%
Vodafone	204.00p	2.05%	5.57%	-1.33%	-19.14%	-19.14%
Verizon **	3074.98p	1.48%	3.78%	2.45%	10.80%	10.80%
IG Group	595.00p	3.94%	4.81%	-1.98%	-3.41%	24.68%
William Hill	370.00p	3.10%	3.43%	5.71%	-7.94%	100.89%
Imperial Tobacco	2664.00p	2.75%	5.26%	1.41%	13.94%	17.93%
BAT	3482.00p	2.43%	4.52%	-2.01%	7.54%	3.81%
General Electric **	$25.62	1.89%	2.75%	0.69%	-7.16%	61.13%
Microsoft **	$46.36	2.16%	2.07%	4.20%	25.80%	59.29%
BAE Systems	471.00p	1.73%	4.43%	5.82%	8.28%	42.73%
Centrica	308.00p	1.42%	5.90%	-3.57%	-11.42%	-7.12%
SSE	1547.00p	1.57%	5.81%	1.91%	12.92%	26.29%
Morrisons	168.24p	0.78%	0.00%	-5.22%	-35.54%	-37.13%
BG Group	1142.00p	1.23%	1.79%	-4.95%	-11.98%	-11.88%
Tesco	185.96p	0.55%	0.00%	-19.13%	-44.38%	-53.38%
Barrat Dev.	396.00p	1.30%	3.59%	7.06%	10.78%	10.78%
Cash		8.23%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.32%
				1 Month	YTD	45 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2132.02 -	2097.83			-1.60%
- YTD gain        1644.62 -	2097.83				-1.94%
- 44 month gain 1264.20 -	2097.83					65.94%
- 56 month gain 1000.00 -	2097.83					109.78%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6819.75 -	6622.72			-2.89%
- YTD gain        5897.81 -	6622.72				-1.87%
- 45 month gain 5971.01 -	6622.72					10.91%
- 57 month gain 5412.88 -	6622.72					22.35%
Transactions:
06/09/2014	Div	BG Group @ 8.51p per share
16/09/2014	Div	Microsoft @ 12.13p per share (act rec'd)
20/09/2014	Div	BP @ 5.53p per share (act rec'd)
27/09/2014	Div	SSE @ 56.1p per share
29/09/2014	Sell	Tesco @ 185.96p
29/09/2014	Sell	Morrison @ 168.24p
30/09/2014	Div	BAT @ 81.2p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6257 as at 30/09/14

The graph continues to provide an easily understood presentation of performance, which while disappointing for 2014, and its outlook, still shows that we are still in the realms of historic highs, 109.78% v. the 113.93% that closed out 2013.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So looking forward, achieving any kind of parity for 2014 is now looking difficult given the fall in Rolls-Royce to come in October's update.
However, the significant task ahead now is to redistribute the fund now building in my portfolio, some of which I will have to consider for Rolls-Royce, and BP now.

Anyway, we're still in the game and, as ever, taking a longer term view of things than the market turmoiling around us.

Happy hunting!

Previous Posts:
- August 2014: Portfolio Update
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.

Supermarkets? checked out!

OK patience finally ran out today and both Tesco and Morrisons have gone from my portfolio.

Frustrating to say the least, and with hindsight, far too late but, with one dividend cut at Tesco, management change, and ongoing suspicion about accounting standards and culture; and continued speculation around Morrisons dividend, coupled to a patchy strategy, my reasoning is to boost my war chest and recycle the remaining funds back into something with a little more certainty around its current situation.

Obviously not happy with myself for holding on, and probably will watch as they bottom and rise from here, but I've spent all of this year to date speculating as to their merits of a place, and longer still spent speculating about Morrisons strategy and management!
So better to cut my losses and start looking forward again.

C'est la vie!

August 2014: Portfolio Update.

Two thirds of the year down, and my portfolio continues to run a small year to date loss of -0.34% v. the FTSE100's 1.05%.
Very disappointing but understandable given the difficulties and setbacks from my largest holding, Rolls-Royce, the 2 supermarket investments, Tesco and Morrison, and then the strength of the pound against the dollar.

Still disappointing, and probably should have seen me axe the supermarkets.

So the month is traditionally by best for dividends received as National Grid payout in August, with further contributions from Imperial Tobacco, Apple, Verizon, and Vodafone.

The only swings of note in the portfolio coming from a renaissance in Apple, +9.08%, and the sinking of Tesco, -10.87%.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	44 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1021.00p	26.78%	2.49%	-1.83%	-18.42%	55.53%
National Grid	899.00p	14.33%	4.82%	5.15%	14.09%	62.57%
Aviva	521.00p	11.08%	3.68%	3.37%	15.86%	54.20%
BP	481.65p	5.08%	5.18%	-0.49%	-1.31%	6.32%
Apple **	$102.50	6.99%	1.63%	9.08%	27.20%	69.61%
Vodafone	206.75p	2.05%	5.50%	4.42%	-18.05%	-18.05%
Verizon **	3001.31p	1.42%	3.79%	-0.58%	8.14%	8.14%
IG Group	607.00p	3.95%	4.71%	-0.49%	-1.46%	27.20%
William Hill	350.00p	2.89%	3.63%	-0.85%	-12.91%	90.04%
Imperial Tobacco	2627.00p	2.67%	5.34%	2.18%	12.36%	16.29%
BAT	3553.50p	2.44%	4.43%	2.02%	9.74%	5.94%
General Electric **	$25.98	1.84%	2.71%	5.09%	-7.80%	60.02%
Microsoft **	$45.43	2.04%	2.12%	7.08%	20.73%	52.88%
BAE Systems	445.10p	1.61%	4.69%	4.00%	2.32%	34.88%
Centrica	319.40p	1.45%	5.69%	3.37%	-8.14%	-3.68%
SSE	1518.00p	1.52%	5.92%	4.19%	10.80%	23.92%
Morrisons	177.50p	0.81%	6.95%	5.03%	-31.99%	-33.67%
BG Group	1201.50p	1.27%	1.70%	2.52%	-7.40%	-7.29%
Tesco	229.95p	0.67%	3.78%	-10.87%	-31.22%	-42.36%
Barrat Dev.	369.90p	1.19%	3.84%	5.99%	3.48%	3.48%
Cash		7.92%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.34%
				1 Month	YTD	44 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2092.15 -	2132.02			1.91%
- YTD gain         1644.62	2132.02				-0.34%
- 44 month gain 1264.20 -	2132.02					68.65%
- 56 month gain 1000.00 -	2132.02					113.20%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6730.11 -	6819.75			1.33%
- YTD gain         5897.81	6819.75				1.05%
- 44 month gain 5971.01 -	6819.75					14.21%
- 56 month gain 5412.88 -	6819.75					25.99%
Transactions:
05/08/2014	Div	Verizon @ 26.56p per share
06/08/2014	Div	Vodafone @ 10.55p per share
18/08/2014	Div	Apple @ 23.59p per share
19/08/2014	Div	Imperial Tobacco @ 38.8p per share
20/08/2014	Div	National Grid @ 27.54p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.65994 as at 31/08/14

Chartwise, things are back pushing the ceiling of all time highs so its not all bad news, more one of consolidation.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So looking ahead, one topic I have chosen to ignore is the Scottish referendum, mainly because I don't understand the outcome but the sooner the better as it is the uncertainty that has the biggest effect. 

Anyway, I have added new funds to my portfolio, rather than re-invest, in the poor deals now on offer.
These have actually come from many years invested in the National Savings Index Linked certificates so it has been disappointing to give them up but at least allows me to recycle the funds back into my ISA.
I will be looking to invest most of this before the year-end and any traditional year-end rally, although I also like to get past October and its historic "Black" events


Previous Posts:
- July 2014: Portfolio Update.
- June 2014: Portfolio Update.
- May 2014: Portfolio Update.
- April 2014: Portfolio Update.
- March 2014: Portfolio Update.
- 2013 Dividends profiled.
- February 2014: Portfolio Update
- January 2014: Portfolio Update
- December 2013: Portfolio Update.