September 18: Dividend Pipeline

After a bumper month in July for dividends, can I really expect to see a better August?
I can indeed as a positive rush to pay out comes from RDS, SSE, BP, Aviva, Standard Life, Imperial Brands, and Lloyds.
In particular, Lloyds, BP, and Aviva, are 3 of my 4 big hitters (the 4th being National Grid which delivered last month).
As a newer holding, Standard Life Aberdeen will also make its maiden payment into my portfolio.

All of that being the case, September's payments will almost (not quite), double that of August's which is very satisfying following the unusual drought in July, courtesy of my portfolio pack being reshuffled and dealt over the last year or two.

It also means that the flow of dividends will start to slow for the remainder of the year until National Grid starts 2019. I can see a resulting yield of around 4.1% based upon my 2017 starting value but we will see how that actually stacks up come the year-end.

	Rate
Company	c.	p.	Xd	Paid
National Grid		15.49	23/11/2017	10/01/2018
Vodafone		4.84	23/11/2017	02/02/2018
BAT		48.8	27/12/2017	07/02/2018
Apple	63		12/02/2018	15/02/2018
SSE		28.4	18/01/2018	16/03/2018
Berkeley Group		56.75	01/03/2018	23/03/2018
RDS 'B'	47		15/02/2018	26/03/2018
Imperial Brands		59.51	22/02/2018	29/03/2018
BP	10		15/02/2018	29/03/2018
Galliford Try		28	15/03/2018	06/04/2018
BAT		48.8	22/03/2018	09/05/2018
Aviva		19	05/04/2018	17/05/2018
Apple	73		14/05/2018	17/05/2018
Lloyds		2.05	19/04/2018	29/05/2018
RDS 'B'	47		10/05/2018	18/06/2018
BP	10		10/05/2018	22/06/2018
Imperial Brands		28.43	24/05/2018	29/06/2018
Vodafone		10.23	07/06/2018	03/08/2018
BAT		48.8	28/06/2018	08/08/2018
National Grid		30.44	31/05/2018	15/08/2018
Apple	73		10/08/2018	16/08/2018
RDS 'B'	47		09/08/2018	17/09/2018
SSE		66.3	26/07/2018	21/09/2018
BP	10.25		09/08/2018	21/09/2018
Aviva		9.25	16/08/2018	24/09/2018
Standard Life Aberdeen		7.3	16/08/2018	25/09/2018
Lloyds		1.07	16/08/2018	26/09/2018
Imperial Brands		28.43	23/08/2018	28/09/2018
Standard Chartered	6		09/08/2018	22/10/2018
BAT		48.8	04/10/2018	15/11/2018
Galliford Try		49	08/11/2018	05/12/2018

August 2018: Portfolio Update

August brought further swings with my portfolio falling a smaller -0.51% v. a -4.08% fall in the FTSE 100.
YTD that leaves my index marginally positive for the year to date at 0.93% v. a -3.32% decline in the FTSE.
The big movement and news coming from Apple (in my portfolio at least), which once breaching $207.05 became the first US company with a trillion dollar market capitalisation which was enough to see it run as high as $227.
This came as Apple reported consensus beating 3rd quarter results (www.apple.com: apple-reports-third-quarter-results).
Elsewhere there were widespread falls led by Vodafone (-11.56%), and BAT (-11.41%). With just 2 other gainers in Standard Life (+1.47%), and Galliford Try (+4.02%), in addition to Apple, the falls managed to outweigh the gains.

And after last month's dividend drought, it was nice to see a good contribution this month with National Grid leading the way.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	59.30p	23.61%	5.60%	-4.94%	-12.87%	-3.96%
Aviva	485.00p	12.32%	6.04%	-3.00%	-4.24%	35.59%
National Grid	810.00p	11.89%	5.84%	-0.41%	-7.14%	67.37%
BP	547.30p	11.95%	5.64%	-4.54%	4.71%	31.55%
Apple **	$227.63	12.82%	1.02%	20.54%	39.73%	503.33%
BAT	3721.50p	2.48%	5.41%	-11.41%	-25.84%	10.95%
Imperial Brands	2744.00p	3.85%	6.85%	-6.09%	-7.25%	14.45%
Royal Dutch Shell	2540.50p	2.75%	5.65%	-4.90%	1.28%	-1.31%
Vodafone	164.50p	1.87%	8.26%	-11.56%	-27.79%	-32.14%
SSE	1253.00p	1.21%	7.78%	0.24%	-5.08%	8.87%
Galliford Try	970.00p	2.62%	7.21%	4.02%	24.42%	19.16%
Standard Chartered	627.10p	2.97%	2.72%	-8.85%	-11.36%	-11.36%
Standard Life Aberdeen	316.90p	4.20%	7.49%	1.47%	-6.10%	-6.08%
Cash		5.46%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.95%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2633.40	2608.23			-0.51%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2608.23				0.93%
- 104 mnth gain 1000.00	2608.23					160.82%
Unit Price - £	2.60823	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7678.20	7432.42			-4.08%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7432.42				-3.32%
- 104 mnth gain 5412.88	7432.42					37.31%
Transactions:
03/08/2018	Div	Vodafone @ 9.09p per share
08/08/2018	Div	BAT @ 48.80p per share
16/08/2018	Div	National Grid @ 30.44p per share
20/08/2018	Div	Apple @ 48.69p per share
31/08/2018		Funds Removed @ 2.60823 (Aug.18 Index close)
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 13 as at 31/08/2018
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.11 as at 31/08/2018

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August 2018: Dividend Pipeline

So after a drought in July, where do we sit with dividends in the pipeline at the moment?
Well August looks significantly better with National Grid leading the way supported by BAT, Vodafone and Apple.

In addition: RDS, BP, Aviva, Standard Life, Lloyds, Imperial Brands, Standard Chartered all go ex dividend in August.

Looking ahead:

	Rate
Company	c.	p.	Xd	Paid
National Grid		15.49	23/11/2017	10/01/2018
Vodafone		4.84	23/11/2017	02/02/2018
BAT		48.8	27/12/2017	07/02/2018
BAT		48.8	27/12/2018	07/02/2018
Apple	63		12/02/2018	15/02/2018
SSE		28.4	18/01/2018	16/03/2018
Berkeley Group		56.75	01/03/2018	23/03/2018
RDS 'B'	47		15/02/2018	26/03/2018
Imperial Brands		59.51	22/02/2018	29/03/2018
BP	10		15/02/2018	29/03/2018
Galliford Try		28	15/03/2018	06/04/2018
BAT		48.8	22/03/2018	09/05/2018
Aviva		19	05/04/2018	17/05/2018
Apple	73		14/05/2018	17/05/2018
Lloyds		2.05	19/04/2018	29/05/2018
RDS 'B'	47		10/05/2018	18/06/2018
BP	10		10/05/2018	22/06/2018
Imperial Brands		28.43	24/05/2018	29/06/2018
Vodafone		10.23	07/06/2018	03/08/2018
BAT		48.8	28/06/2018	08/08/2018
National Grid		30.44	31/05/2018	15/08/2018
Apple	73		10/08/2018	16/08/2018
RDS 'B'	47		09/08/2018	17/09/2018
SSE		66.3	26/07/2018	21/09/2018
BP	10.25		09/08/2018	21/09/2018
Aviva		9.25	16/08/2018	24/09/2018
Standard Life Aberdeen		7.3	16/08/2018	25/09/2018
Lloyds		1.07	16/08/2018	26/09/2018
Imperial Brands		28.43	23/08/2018	28/09/2018
Standard Chartered	6		09/08/2018	22/10/2018
BAT		48.8	04/10/2018	15/11/2018
Galliford Try		49	08/11/2018	05/12/2018

July 2018: Portfolio Update

Outpaced by the FTSE in July, which wasn't helped by a no dividend month. However, my portfolio has managed to stay ahead on a YTD basis at 1.44% v. the FTSE's 0.79%.

In the month BP's second quarter reported higher replacement cost profits of $2.8bn (uk.webfg.com: bp-profit-surges-on-oil-price-recovery), ahead of analyst estimates ($2.7bn), and its first dividend increase since 2014, mostly driven by an increase in the price of Brent crude to $73/barrel from $55 in the previous year. Given the global instability this did not translate into a share price surge over the month.

BAT (uk.webfg.com: british-american-tobacco ) reported a first half fall in revenues from exchange rates and continuing falls in volume but did reiterate that "underlying earnings remained solid and on track for the full year".
BAT has led the way in July though

Galliford Try also reported (uk.webfg.com: galliford-try-issues-solid-year-end-update), with positive momentum in its objectives.

So with SSE leading the fallers (down 7.75%), and BAT leading the risers (9.69%), there is still lots of swings and volatility, which seem largely down to: the ongoing and escalation trade tariff war; a fast looming Brexit and sterling weakness; and the political instability, price caps and potential renationalisation of utilities that a Labour Government might bring.
SSE and National Grid being very much linked to the last element.

In my head, it feels that between the Trump era and the all party shambles that is Brexit, I'm probably taking a hit of 10% or more, and it remains to be seen if, when or how long this might take to recover.

Finally, there were additions to Galliford Try, Standard Life Aberdeen, and Vodafone, with the latter starting to sit heavily on me.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	62.38p	24.72%	5.32%	-1.06%	-8.35%	1.03%
Aviva	500.00p	12.63%	5.86%	-0.79%	-1.28%	39.79%
National Grid	813.30p	11.88%	5.81%	-2.99%	-6.76%	68.05%
BP	573.30p	12.45%	5.39%	-0.86%	9.68%	37.80%
Apple **	$190.29	10.58%	1.22%	3.63%	15.91%	400.51%
BAT	4201.00p	2.78%	4.80%	9.69%	-16.28%	25.24%
Imperial Brands	2922.00p	4.08%	6.43%	3.54%	-1.24%	21.87%
Royal Dutch Shell	2671.50p	2.88%	5.38%	-1.55%	6.50%	3.78%
Vodafone	186.00p	2.10%	7.31%	1.31%	-18.35%	-23.27%
SSE	1250.00p	1.20%	7.80%	-7.75%	-5.30%	8.61%
Galliford Try	932.50p	2.50%	7.50%	6.73%	19.61%	14.55%
Standard Chartered	688.00p	3.24%	2.48%	-0.66%	-2.75%	-2.75%
Standard Life Aberdeen	312.30p	4.12%	7.6%	-3.14%	-7.46%	-7.46%
Cash		4.83%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.92%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2626.82	2633.40			-0.20%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2633.40				1.44%
- 103 month gain 1000.00	2633.40					162.15%
Unit Price - £	2.63340	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7636.93	7678.20			1.46%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7678.20				0.79%
- 103 month gain 5412.88	7678.20					43.15%
Transactions:
23/07/2018	Buy	Galliford Try @ 8.5218p per share
23/07/2018	Buy	Standard Life Aberdeen @ 346.31
23/07/2018	Buy	Vodafone @ 187.46p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 1.31 as at 31/07/2018
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.12967 as at 31/07/2018

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