November 2013: Portfolio Update.

Markets took a slight pause for breath again with heightened concerns over shadowy housing bubbles and the long wait for US Treasury guidance on the future trend for quantitative easing.

As a result the FTSE pulled back slightly by -1.2%, but my portfolio made a small gain of 1.09% with the help of Rolls-Royce gaining 7.39% and dividends from Morrison's, Centrica, Aviva, Apple, and RSA. 

I took a major decision to sell RSA given the company's second profit warning in as many weeks and news that the full year profits are now exposed to a black hole from the company's Irish division. 
My decision to sell here was triggered by an open ended concern over a wider write down, concerns over the dividend, and the potential for regulatory action.

So a short lived tenure in my portfolio for RSA has come to an end for the time being. So much for my attempt to top up my dividends following Aviva's cut last earlier in the year.

The table below still shows RSA, but at the selling price, and will be removed in my next update.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	35 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1235.00p	32.57%	1.78%	7.39%	41.39%	98.23%
National Grid	775.00p	13.60%	5.43%	-1.21%	10.24%	40.14%
Aviva	429.30p	10.06%	3.76%	-4.41%	15.09%	27.06%
Apple **	$556.07	6.05%	1.75%	4.36%	5.38%	33.32%
BP	482.00p	5.60%	4.83%	-0.15%	12.54%	6.40%
Vodafone	226.80p	4.54%	4.55%	1.02%	21.46%	19.80%
IG Group	585.00p	4.20%	4.08%	-4.65%	30.00%	22.59%
William Hill	385.60p	3.50%	3.04%	-3.82%	17.06%	109.36%
Imperial Tobacco	2324.00p	2.60%	4.99%	-0.21%	2.88%	2.88%
BAT	3261.00p	2.47%	4.42%	-5.09%	-2.78%	-2.78%
General Electric **	$26.66	2.11%	2.45%	-0.02%	25.50%	66.55%
Centrica	338.30p	1.69%	5.13%	-4.27%	1.41%	2.02%
BAE Systems	427.40p	1.70%	4.74%	-6.00%	26.86%	29.52%
Microsoft **	$38.13	1.91%	2.22%	5.74%	40.95%	30.14%
SSE	1327.00p	1.46%	6.65%	-6.29%	-6.42%	8.33%
Morrisons	265.50p	1.33%	4.88%	-5.72%	0.95%	-0.78%
BG Group	1248.50p	1.45%	1.41%	-1.96%	23.31%	-3.67%
RSA Ins.Grp	107.36p	1.15%	5.96%	-16.39%	-9.25%	-9.25%
Tesco	347.95p	1.11%	4.34%	-4.46%	3.56%	-12.78%
Cash		0.88%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.36%
				1 Month	YTD	35 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2060.17 -	2082.68			1.09%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	2082.68				26.64%
- 35 month gain 1264.20 -	2082.68					64.74%
- 47 month gain 1000.00 -	2082.68					108.27%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6731.43 -	6650.57			-1.20%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6650.57				12.76%
- 35 month gain 5971.01 -	6650.57					11.38%
- 47 month gain 5412.88 -	6650.57					22.87%
Transactions:
11/11/2013	Sell	RSA @ 107.36p
11/11/2013	Div	Morrisons @ 3.84p per share
15/11/2013	Div	Centrica @ 4.92p per share
15/11/2013	Div	Aviva @ 5.6p per share
18/11/2013	Div	Apple @ £1.5829 per share (est)
22/11/2013	Div	RSA @ 2.28p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6366 as at 30/11/13

And the chart:

Click to enlarge, close to return.

Quite exciting that the aforementioned market concerns aside, my portfolio has performed strongly in the year to date and is well placed for any year-end rally.

But even without that, I would be more than happy to lock in the current year to date performance of 26.64%.

And, we could be in recovery!

Earlier Posts:

- October 2013: Portfolio Update.
- September 2013: Portfolio Update.
- August 2013: Portfolio Update.
- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
- July 2013: Portfolio Update.

- June 2013: Portfolio Update.

- May 2013: Portfolio Update.

- 20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
- April 2013: Portfolio Update.
- March 2013: Portfolio Update.
- February 2013: Portfolio update.
- January 2013: Portfolio Update.
- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).

October 2013: Portfolio Update

October has proven to be a good month for the FTSE and my portfolio with respective gains of 4.17% and 5.79%.
Pleasingly it took my overall gains back above 100% over 46 months boosted by a steady flow of dividends.
Double digit gains in the month came from Aviva, Apple, BP, and GE. 
On the downside, small pullbacks from  William Hill, Centrica, and SSE as short term success from punters and continued publicity over power company tariffs put pressure on these three.

Dividends in the month were added from IG and GE.

And. although easing slightly dollar strength against sterling continued to deflate some of my portfolio gains.

Nice to see Apple start to build some momentum again as expectation of the long awaited China Mobile deal escalates.

So the scores on the doors:

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	34 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1150.00p	30.66%	1.91%	3.42%	31.65%	84.59%
National Grid	784.50p	13.92%	5.36%	7.39%	11.59%	41.86%
Aviva	449.10p	10.63%	3.59%	13.18%	20.40%	32.92%
Apple **	$522.35	5.86%	1.86%	10.74%	0.97%	27.75%
BP	482.70p	5.67%	4.82%	11.45%	12.70%	6.55%
Vodafone	224.50p	4.54%	4.60%	3.94%	20.22%	18.58%
IG Group	613.50p	4.45%	3.89%	5.96%	36.33%	28.56%
William Hill	400.90p	3.68%	2.93%	-0.52%	21.71%	117.67%
Imperial Tobacco	2329.00p	2.64%	4.98%	1.84%	3.10%	3.10%
BAT	3436.00p	2.63%	4.19%	4.87%	2.44%	2.44%
General Electric **	$26.14	2.14%	2.50%	10.48%	25.53%	66.59%
Centrica	353.40p	1.79%	4.91%	-4.41%	5.94%	6.57%
BAE Systems	454.70p	1.83%	4.46%	0.07%	34.97%	37.79%
Microsoft **	$35.35	1.83%	2.40%	7.61%	33.30%	23.08%
SSE	1416.00p	1.58%	6.23%	-3.93%	-0.14%	15.59%
Morrisons	281.60p	1.43%	4.60%	0.57%	7.07%	5.23%
BG Group	1273.50p	1.50%	1.39%	7.88%	25.78%	-1.74%
RSA Ins.Grp	128.40p	1.40%	4.98%	6.20%	8.53%	8.53%
Tesco	364.20p	1.17%	4.15%	1.45%	8.39%	-8.70%
Cash		0.66%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.40%
				1 Month	YTD	34 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1947.37 -	2060.17			5.79%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	2060.17				25.27%
- 34 month gain 1264.20 -	2060.17					62.96%
- 46 month gain 1000.00 -	2060.17					106.02%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6462.22 -	6731.43			4.17%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6731.43				14.13%
- 34 month gain 5971.01 -	6731.43					12.74%
- 46 month gain 5412.88 -	6731.43					24.36%
Transactions:
22/10/2013	Div	IG Group @ 17.5p per share
29/10/2013	Div	Gen. Electric @ 9.97p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.60436 as at 31/10/13

And, the 3 year chart: 

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So as global economies seem to be in a shallow recovery phase now, there are factional concerns over the withdrawal of easy money supply, particularly in the US, and a new housing bubble in the UK.

For myself, I'm not sure that there is any substance to either concern and will be happy when the artificial interference's are removed.

Looking ahead, although I am still feeling positive that my portfolio can continue to make steady gains, there may yet be a test for my long term resolve, as my portfolio may not power ahead if recovery locks in and the markets increasing appetite for risk sees more cyclical and speculative investments come to the fore. 

But, I hope I am a more self aware investor these days and that, by focusing on a longer term goal, I can continue to smooth a good long term average of year on year gains, whilst minimizing my exposure to the kind of speculative investment that can tempt me from my path with promises that never materialize.

Until next month.

Earlier Posts:

- September 2013: Portfolio Update.
- August 2013: Portfolio Update.
- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
- July 2013: Portfolio Update.

- June 2013: Portfolio Update.

- May 2013: Portfolio Update.

- 20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
- April 2013: Portfolio Update.
- March 2013: Portfolio Update.
- February 2013: Portfolio update.
- January 2013: Portfolio Update.
- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).

September 2013: Portfolio Update.

Well, thats three quarters of the year gone and, event wise, we're right back round to where we started the year with a further sequel to the trillion dollar US drama that is the national budget and debt ceiling negotiations.
I'm not going to worry about what I can't control and there seems little alternative should a default occur.
As it is I have continued to buy shares and have added Vodafone following my considerations (Vodafone: "Deal or no deal" on Verizon Wireless!), in the wake of the company's announcement of a deal to sell its stake in Verizon Wireless. 

But as things stand September was another flattish month for my portfolio with a small decrease of -0.40% being registered whereas the FTSE100 increased by 0.77% in the month.
This looks to be a result of the US situation and a weakening dollar (affecting my portfolio), which saw the rate of exchange swing to $1.62 to £1.

So despite a few dividends coming in my portfolio notched up its third negative month for the year.
Dividends were received from BG, Microsoft, BP, and SSE.

At least, YTD my portfolio remains up by a healthy 18.41%, with the promise of fresh gains should the  US budget debate be resolved positiviely.

But, it also seems strange that there has been no European turmoil so far this year which is one less issue over recent years.

Back to my portfolio though.
Apple has continued to wallow despite the launch of the iPhone 5S and 5c, but subsequent record first weekend sales appears to have prompted analysts to steadily increase their targets for the company so perhaps the sentiment driven tide is turning again.

BP is also struggling now that it has entered a critical second trial phase of 3 with regard to the scope of the Gulf of Mexico disaster in which the judge will seek to determine the extent of negligence and the amount of oil spilled.

My portfolio's very own energy sector also wobbled following Ed Miliband's personally motivated comments to win electorate support. 
Given his part in driving prices up by record amounts whilst he was Labour's Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and his oft quoted statement from that time that ‘there is no low-cost energy future’ (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk: Going green meant gas bills rose 10% when Ed Miliband was energy secretary), I can only view it as a thinly veiled attempt to sway the mindset of those most vulnerable for his obvious personal gain.
The inevitable result being that if he were to become PM, then there would be any number of reasons why it wouldn't be possible.

As it is, I am looking at a potential top up of SSE if the window of opportunity remains open long enough.

But fair to say I have viewed recent months as a buying opportunity with my eye on the longer term.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	33 mth
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
R-R	1112.00p	31.36%	1.98%	0.00%	27.30%	78.49%
National Grid	730.50p	13.71%	5.76%	-1.62%	3.91%	32.10%
Aviva	396.80p	9.94%	4.07%	2.59%	6.38%	17.44%
Apple **	$476.28	5.60%	2.04%	-6.46%	-8.82%	15.36%
BP	433.10p	5.38%	5.38%	-2.94%	1.12%	-4.39%
Vodafone	216.00p	4.62%	4.78%	4.48%	15.67%	14.09%
IG Group	579.00p	4.44%	4.12%	1.94%	28.67%	21.33%
William Hill	403.00p	3.92%	2.91%	-2.94%	22.34%	118.81%
Imperial Tobacco	2287.00p	2.74%	5.07%	7.27%	1.24%	1.24%
BAT	3276.50p	2.65%	4.40%	0.66%	-2.32%	-2.32%
General Electric **	$23.89	2.05%	2.74%	-1.03%	13.62%	50.78%
Centrica	369.70p	1.98%	4.70%	-4.20%	10.82%	11.49%
BAE Systems	454.40p	1.94%	4.46%	4.44%	34.88%	37.70%
Microsoft **	$33.17	1.80%	2.55%	-5.00%	23.87%	14.37%
SSE	1474.00p	1.73%	5.99%	-5.69%	3.95%	20.33%
Morrisons	280.00p	1.51%	4.63%	-3.51%	6.46%	4.63%
BG Group	1180.50p	1.47%	1.50%	-3.79%	16.59%	-8.91%
RSA Ins.Grp	120.90p	1.39%	5.29%	1.94%	2.19%	2.19%
Tesco	359.00p	1.22%	4.21%	-2.06%	6.85%	-10.01%
Cash		0.55%	0.00%
		100.00%	3.59%
				1 Month	YTD	33 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1955.19 -	1947.37			-0.40%
- YTD gain         1644.62 -	1947.37				18.41%
- 33 month gain 1264.20 -	1947.37					54.04%
- 45 month gain 1000.00 -	1947.37					94.74%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6412.93 -	6462.22			0.77%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -	6462.22				9.57%
- 33 month gain 5971.01 -	6462.22					8.23%
- 45 month gain 5412.88 -	6462.22					18.48%
Transactions:
03/09/2013	Buy	Vodafone @ 2.05373
06/09/2013	Div	BG Group @ 8.51p per share
16/09/2013	Div	Microsoft @ 12.13p per share (act rec'd)
20/09/2013	Div	BP @ 5.53p per share (act rec'd)
27/09/2013	Div	SSE @ 56.1p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.62 as at 30/09/13

Chartwise the most telling point is the 2 months of falls in my portfolio as it continues to consolidate within reach of all time highs.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So the most obvious immediate concern is the US debt ceiling negotiations, followed by potential escalation of the ongoing crisis in Syria.
But for the former I am optimistic that sense of some kind will prevail over political ambition which would remove some uncertainty and provide a base for further economic recovery.

I continue to be optimistic and look forward to the year end.

Related article links:
- http://www.thisismoney.co.uk: Going green meant gas bills rose 10% when Ed Miliband was energy secretary

Related Posts:
- Vodafone: "Deal or no deal" on Verizon Wireless!

- August 2013: Portfolio Update.
- July 2013: Portfolio Adjustment (for new funds).
- July 2013: Portfolio Update.

- June 2013: Portfolio Update.

- Markets pause for breath!

- FTSE's fragile confidence

- May 2013: Portfolio Update.

- 20 May 2013: Portfolio milestone.
- April 2013: Portfolio Update.
- March 2013: Portfolio Update.
- February 2013: Portfolio update.
- January 2013: Portfolio Update.
- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).