Thursday 4 July 2019

Musings

Lots to catch up inside my portfolio having spent the last few months financing home improvements etc.
But, as we get beyond the traditional May milestone "Sell in May da-de dah...etc. etc." and are still mired in the various trade disputes, and Brexit trials and Tory leadership turmoils there are various sectors under watch as they plough recent lulls and lows due to cyclical and uncertainty reasons.
I've developed a constant question when faced with rhetoric and newsflow that some of you might be able to bring to mind, that being "what's in it for them?" and this is generally aimed at reporters, analysts and politicians!
It seems more strongly prevalent than ever, particularly when we look at the House of Commons, the ongoing fight for no. 10 from both outside and within the Conservative party.
Brexit really seems lost amongst personal and party ambitions.

I see various quotes about supporting a second referendum and letting the people decide, and it seems this is being used a shield with a pretence of democracy. Unfortunately, the people had already decided but this historic fact seems lost amidst the personal ambitions of our so called representatives.

Anyway back to the game, retailers, house builders and many other sectors are being hit by uncertainty and with many household names amongst them they are at valuations that might be termed attractive in recent and in some cases historic timeframes.

Both Ted Baker and Associated British Foods are amongst these having been affected by trading conditions and uncertainty, will they or can they bounceback?

Tobacco stocks are also in the midst of perfect global storm of negative newsflow and statistics and there is much uncertainty about what these companies may look like in the future?

The uncertainty around these sectors is also affecting many others in a similar groove, yet overall markets are still holding good levels with the FTSE comfortably above the long held ceiling that was 7000.
It seemed to spend the best part of 20 years trying to break through (beginning in 1999), but has managed to maintain a hold (apart from a blip or two), above that mark since the end of 2016. 
Anyway, I'm still managing home improvements but had these trails of thoughts following ABF news today regarding Primark which gave me pause for thought particularly given its global presence in retail now.