Wednesday 19 December 2012

Gummy bear beats up Lindt bear in German court!


"It is a case of mistaken identity that has been occupying some of the finest legal brains in Europe. In the dock was an innocent looking chocolate teddy bear in a gold jacket which always turned up in court wearing a ribbon with a little heart charm round its neck and a big smile."
"Looking on was a pack of gummy bears – less than 2cm tall and all wearing the same blank expression."
"In the autumn German confectioner Haribo launched legal action accusing Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli of copying its trademark on the Gold Bear name after it launched the gold foil-wrapped Lindt Teddy. Haribo, which invented gummy bears almost a century ago, said the two products would confuse shoppers – even though one is a jelly sweet and the other chocolate." (http://www.guardian.co.uk: Gummy bear wins court battle).

Had a proper chuckle at this article which popped up in the news feed (above), on my blog. The writer has done a good job of creating the image of an innocent and sweetly smiling Lindt bear being accused by a "pack" of Gummy bears on their home turf.
Its not quite Apple v. Samsung (and the rest of the Android horde), but goes some way to illustrate that companies in all sectors will seek to protect themselves from so called imitators although, in this case, I have to admit to not ever having confused, or connected the Lindt gold foil wrapped chocolate bear with Gummy bears.
Still, must be an emotive subject for someone at Haribo!
Related article:
- http://www.guardian.co.uk: Gummy bear wins court battle

Sunday 16 December 2012

Greggs @ 460.9p: Sausage roll anyone?

Greggs @ 460.9p, +0.9p (+0.2%)

So who's for a sausage roll then?

Not, it seems, Kennedy "Ken" Mckeiken - CEO of Greggs since August 2008, who has quit the high street baker for a position at Brakes Group (http://otp.investis.com: Board Change).
Seems abrupt to me, and concerning, to see a Chief Executive set the company on a strategy but not seeing it to fruition particularly when it includes new elements and strands that are not part of the company's perceived core strengths e.g. Coffee shops, and frozen food, as opposed to baking and distribution at point of sale.

For many years now I have kept an eye on Gregg's inexorable advance armed with "non VAT" sausage rolls of course.
Its steady, but sure, growth has rewarded shareholders and seen the shares advance to a previously stratospheric price that approached £40 before splitting with a 10 for 1 distribution in 2009. 
That advance has also continued into its current range bound trading between 460p and a 52 week high of 558p which reflects the simple strengths of the company and the loyalty of its customers through the lengthy recession and periods of high inflation.

With little or no growth forecast over the next 2 years (2012 and 2013), the shares, at 460.9p, trade reasonably on a forecast 11.7 and 11.1 times earnings.

At £19.51m, the company's cash balances have been largely flat for the last 2 financial years but with no debt to speak of, the company has no interest payments to make and the cash position is just that, net cash.
At 74.55p: 2011, the cashflow per share is comfortably higher than the adjusted earnings per share of 39.5p which reflects the advantages and nature of what is effectively an immediate cash for product business (excepting the new frozen food experiment which ties up cash in stock for a delayed payment).

This traditionally strong cashflow, no interest, and net cash position, gives the company financial flexibility to invest and, as mentioned, the company has embarked on a strategy which builds on the traditional store opening/closing programme, and investment in newer technology, with new experiments in coffee shops, open bakery formats, and frozen food sold through Iceland.

Those strengths aside the company's margins are tight though, with 8.65% achieved through 2011 which seems to mark it as a pile it high and sell it cheap type of business, traditionally at least.

But the strategy has possibly gone some way to utilising that strong cashflow and I can see increasing levels of capital investment and, in turn, depreciation.
One element of the strategy, frozen food, albeit at a small level will also reduce cashflow as a matter of course, as it involves preparing product for transport, store stocking, and sale. This has the twin effect of tying up cash in stock but delaying payments received as well.

The CEO has spoken positively about the experiments in the latest interim statement (INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT FOR THE 14 WEEKS TO 6 OCTOBER 2012), but it is surely too early to tell if the company can establish brand strength in these new niches and deliver sustained revenues beyond the novelty phase.
Worrying then that the CEO has apparently jumped ship.

Investor returns have come from the steady year on year appreciation in the share price in tandem with a dividend (forecast to be 4.1%), which, using next years forecast, has increased 44% in five years but has also been grown in line with earnings with a maintained cover of around 2 times.

But doubts over growth momentum (due to recession and raw material inflation), and the strategy have kept me from investing at the current level despite the shares seeming to be near the bottom of the current trading range.
I will also say it again, but it does concern me when management moves away from the core strengths that they are recognised for. Particularly when it usually seems to herald a spending of the family silver (Morrisons is on a seemingly similar path).

In Greggs case this is now further compounded by the unexpected change at the top so it will be very interesting to see where the new CEO will come from, and whether the current course is maintained.
It will also be interesting to get a view of the financials for the full year (2012), when they are published on the 14 March 2013, and what the cash, cashflow per share, depreciation, and capital spend, trends look like, particularly if the company can't identify revenue growth from the new investments.

So despite my liking of the Greggs brand and its success to date, I have a few too many question marks to invest in the company just yet (unless they become cheaper still of course).

Related article links:
http://otp.investis.com: Board Change
http://corporate.greggs.co.uk/assets/Uploads/Investor-analyst-visit-October-2012-final.pdf
http://corporate.greggs.co.uk:GREGGS plc INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT FOR THE 14 WEEKS TO 6 OCTOBER 2012

Wednesday 12 December 2012

IG Group Trading Update.

IG Group @ 439.6p, +12.4p (+2.9%)

OK so I crossed my fingers and waited for the trading statement.....and IG Group duly reported yesterday........and the statement disappointed.....and the shares fell, but not to what, with hindsight, now appears to have been a recent (but very brief), low of 414p seen on the 27 November 2012 (Is it time to bet on IG Group shares?).

Yesterday's trading update triggered falls ended with a close of 427p, but the shares have steadily improved today to finish up a healthy 12.4p by the close. 
At 439.6p today's close is some 6.2% higher than the aforementioned 414p.

I don't believe that the trading statement (www.iggroup.com: First-half trading update), came up with anything new or unexpected though, other than the unwanted, and previously unmentioned caveat that if activity levels don't increase then the full year might be missed.
In the current economic climate with little sight of a light at the end of an ever extending tunnel how many companies are in a position to forecast growth with any level of certainty.

And whilst the second quarter was 7% higher than the first quarter it was going to have to be exceptional for the company to beat what was flagged up as an exceptional 1st/2nd quarter last year based upon record months in August and September 2011.
With no further momentum beyond these 2 months IG has quite conservatively encircled Q1/Q2 2011 as exceptions rather than the new rule.

But the £169m IG has achieved in the first half is very similar to the £169.28m and £167.61m achieved by H1 2010 and H1 2009. Hence, I assume the basis of the company's statement regarding a "traditional" pattern for full year revenues.
Having done a rough check it looks like, with the exception of 2011, IG's first half revenues have been outweighed by the second half by 1 or 2 percent e.g 49%: 51%.

2011: £213m / £411m = 51.8%,
2010: £169 / £354 = 47.7%,
2009: £168 / £344 = 48.8%,
2008: £126 / £257 = 49%,
2007: £86 / £184 = 46.7%.

But the company has made that veiled caveat that if current activity levels persist then the traditional pattern might not hold true this year.

On the plus side IG has tried to cut/contain some costs and with its policy of investment in its own IT systems appears to be increasing market share.
Economic conditions must be a factor but, much like Sky giving away its boxes, surely an increasing market share will yield a benefit if/when economic conditions start to show a little more stability. At which point it seems likely that the all important revenue per client number will increase.

I would have liked to have had a view of the cashflow and the cash on the balance sheet figures for comparison and effectiveness of the cost cutting activity but am happy to hold for the present as I maintain that the shares seem to have found a reasonable affordable level v. an ex. growth expectation, which must leave an opportunity should conditions start to improve. 
Meanwhile the company still seems to be well managed with a strong commitment to shareholder returns.

Related article links:
www.iggroup.com: First-half trading update

Earlier related posts:
Is it time to bet on IG Group shares?
Portfolio top up of IG Group.
IG Group beats forecasts. What storm clouds?
Has the sun set on IG Index?

Monday 10 December 2012

November 2012: "following Woodford" update

Still flipping about like a fish out of water with Neil Woodford's Invesco Perpetual High Income Fund still leading the way. 
Close behind is the Edinburgh Investment Trust, which is also managed by Neil Woodford, and then comes the laggard, the 3 picks. 
Originally selected from the 3 most represented sectors in Woodford's top 10, this selection looked to be forging ahead in July and August but has since fallen back and, as things stand currently, is the only one of the 3 ways to follow Woodford that is showing a loss.


Qty £price £value %gain
Inv. Perp. High Income 1110.14 5.58 6197.94 3.30%
Residue 0.00
Dividends
Total
6000
6197.94 3.30%
Edinburgh Investment Trust 1182.00 5.09 6016.38 0.27%
Residue 0.43
Dividends 141.84
Total
6000
6158.65 2.64%
3 Picks
BAT 61.00 32.74 1997.14 -0.14%
Glaxo 138.00 13.35 1841.61 -7.92%
Vodafone 1191.00 1.61 1919.30 -4.04%
Residue 3.68
Dividends 149.72
Total 6000 5911.45 -1.48%




Transactions in the month:
Invesco Perp. High Income N/A
Edinburgh Inv. Trust N/A
3 Picks N/A



Click to enlarge, close to return.
Disappointing so far then, particularly given that the 3 picks are now 6.5% below their peak month close of £6300.92 achieved at July's close.

Taking a look at the current Top 10 holdings in the High Income I can see that I now have a problem in that the top 3 sector representations in the Top 10 have changed. 
Last month saw Vodafone drop out of the top 10, which left BT as the sole Telecoms representative. 
However, as of this month's update I see that within the top 10, the Pharmaceuticals and Tobacco sectors continue to dominate, and, with 23.88% and 16.03%, these 2 sectors now amount to 39.91% of the entire High Income Fund.
But, following changes in share price, Reckitt Benckiser (household consumer goods), has overtaken BT to become the 3rd largest sector weighting in the Funds Top 10 holding.

And, whilst clinging to the fact that BT and Vodafone probably still total more than Reckitt Benckiser I have little visibility as to whether or not Woodford has other holdings such as Proctor & Gamble or Unilever to boost the sector weighting for consumer goods.
All that I can see is that in the total Fund industry sector breakdown, Consumer goods total 21.56% but Telecoms are now 7.73%.
This lack of visibility being the reason for working off the dominant Top 10.

I also see that, according to Motley Fool (http://www.fool.co.uk: Here's what the City super-investor has been buying and selling.), Neil Woodford has again managed a couple of wonderfully timed trades, with BG Group and Vodafone being sold ahead of their respective slumps at respective average prices (approx. calcs), of 1235p and 180p.

Read into this what you will but it does suggest that Neil Woodford, is not a rigid investor locked into high income.
His influentially sized holdings probably also give him a position closer to the "well" and access to information that is already out of date when it is published to us mere mortals.
He also appears to be willing to trade with large scale sell-offs not out of the question once he has a clear view on things e.g on banking, company/industry specific problems, and the lack of recovery in the EU. 
This is reflected in the other extreme as well with 40% of the High Income Fund now invested across just 6 companies and 2 sectors.
As ever, it seems likely that the same approach is being reflected in his management of the Edinburgh Investment Trust as well.

But I find this approach a little conflicting with the assumption that he has a "long term" view of things as, whilst he has chosen to stick with long term projects like BAE, he has cashed in his chips on Tesco, and BG, and significantly reduced holdings in Vodafone and Tate & Lyle.

One thing to note is that the volumes being traded could themselves be creating noise, volatility, and (conspiratorial whisper!), trading opportunities following sell-offs, unless the shares are placed en bloc with buyers.

But, in summary, its not yet a difficult time for the 3 picks (valuation wise), as the majority of the losses continue to be the set-up costs but, I am being challenged on whether to sell Vodafone (Telecoms), as it is unlikely to find its way back into the top 10 now given the Fund's sale, and replace it with Reckitt Benckiser (household consumer goods).

Hmmm.

Related article links:

Earlier related posts:
New proposed investment strategy based upon Neil Woodford's top 10.


Note: Unlike my Portfolio updates (Portfolio Updates.) which reflects an actual investment portfolio, following Woodford is an experimental strategy and a virtual portfolio.
However, I do hold an investment in Vodafone.

Thursday 6 December 2012

Stock market thrills and spills: R-R down, William Hill up, Apple down.

Rolls-Royce @ 885.5p, -28p (-3.07%)
William Hill @ 345.2p, +7.2p (+2.13%)

Its not enough to net off the speculative taint of an SFO investigation into some of Rolls-Royce's regional dealings with intermediaries but, William Hill looks to be back on the gallop following a renegotiation of its joint bid for Sportingbet although, I would suggest that, this is tempered by the date extension which I assume is Sportingbet holding out for a rival bid to push the price up again. 

But just as Rolls-Royce has burst through into all time highs over the last few days (921p early yesterday), the share price has then implodedfollowing the company statement (http://www.rolls-royce.com: Rolls-Royce reports to the SFO), that they have handed over the findings of an independent investigation of various dealings in Indonesia and China over to the SFO.

Despite not being released until today it seems likely that the related falls started yesterday as the 10p or so increase to 921p melted away. Privileged, but not confidential, information for someone then!

As to William Hill's joint bid for Sportingbet the initial price of 52.5p was raised to 61.1p but poor trading at Sportingbet has seen this price renegotiated down to 56.1p (http://uk.reuters.com: UPDATE 1-William Hill agrees reduced $780 mln Sportingbet bid), with the deadline for a formal bid announcement now pushed out to the 18th December.

Apple @ $538.79, - $37.05 (-6.43%).

Elsewhere, Apple took another blow with the share price falling 6.43% as analysts continue to pick over the struggling company and speculate on market share, margins, stock, ex growth fears, no special dividend ahead of fiscal cliff fears, and historical comparisons to previous "biggest" companies etc, etc, etc.
Perversely one the latest threats appears to be the popularity of Nokia Windows based Lumia phones in the wildest frontier of China (http://www.telegraph.co.uk: Apple suffers worst share price fall in four years as $35bn wiped off tech giant).

Article links:
http://www.rolls-royce.com: Rolls-Royce reports to the SFO
http://uk.reuters.com: UPDATE 1-William Hill agrees reduced $780 mln Sportingbet bid
http://www.telegraph.co.uk: Apple suffers worst share price fall in four years as $35bn wiped off tech giant


Monday 3 December 2012

November 2012: Portfolio Update

Well, at one stage, November almost saw my portfolio leap off its own fiscal cliff as it dived around 4% (from peak to trough) to hit an intra-month low of around -2% before bouncing again to finish up by 1.83% at the month end.
Fair to say it proved to be a test of the emotions with stop-start negotiations over the impending "fiscal cliff", partnering similarly conflicted negotiations over future EU budget proposals, and Greece's delayed bail-out tranche.
Of the 3 only Greece achieved a temporary lifeline with the release of a 3rd tranche of bailout funds and an extension to its debt reduction timeline. Unfortunately, one can only yawn and wait for the next chapter in this lengthening odyssey.

Elsewhere, George Osborne, the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced Mark Carney as the next Governor of the Bank of England come June 2013 when the current Governor steps down (The Bank of England: There's a new Sheriff in town!).

Back to my portfolio though and the swing from highs to lows to highs has also, as one would expect, afflicted the individual shares in my portfolio with Aviva, BAE, and R-R moving ahead by 5.73%, 4.84%, and 4.21% but, at the other extreme BG, Microsoft, and Vodafone, finished November down by -6.80%, -6.25%, and -4.22%.

Ex. dividends also had an impact of sorts with Apple, BP, Microsoft, Vodafone, and National Grid all trading without the right to the current dividend.

Fortunately, with R-R and Aviva representing more than 44% of my portfolio their movement was enough to take the portfolio forward despite the falls elsewhere. 
And, completing their own circle of life, six dividends were received and added back into the porfolio, one of which was a particularly healthy windfall from Aviva.



Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast1 monthYTD23 mth
Price% holdingDiv. yield% gain% gain% gain
R-R875.50p32.75%2.20%4.21%19.29%42.94%
National Grid704.50p17.24%5.82%-0.28%12.72%27.40%
Aviva350.40p11.45%7.44%5.73%15.94%3.71%
BP431.55p5.25%4.93%-2.65%-5.01%-5.72%
Apple **$584.985.19%1.33%-0.99%40.15%72.61%
IG Group423.30p4.24%5.40%-2.80%-7.52%-11.30%
William Hill337.20p3.50%3.32%-0.24%66.27%97.54%
General Electric **$21.132.39%2.75%0.81%14.48%34.92%
Centrica325.60p2.27%5.03%0.46%12.55%-1.81%
SSE1425.00p2.19%5.90%-1.59%10.38%16.33%
Microsoft **$26.591.90%2.85%-6.25%-0.61%-7.24%
Morrisons268.70p1.88%4.39%0.30%-17.63%0.41%
BAE Systems327.30p1.82%5.95%4.84%14.80%-0.82%
Vodafone161.15p1.74%7.07%-4.22%-9.92%0.01%
BG Group1069.50p1.74%1.51%-6.80%-22.30%-17.48%
Tesco325.05p1.44%4.56%1.63%-19.43%-18.52%
Cash3.03%0.00%
100.00%4.02%
1 MonthYTD23 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1616.66 - 1646.201.83%
- YTD gain         1409.55 -1646.2016.79%
- 23 month gain 1264.20 -1646.2030.22%
- 35 month gain 1000.00 -1646.2064.62%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   5782.7 -5866.821.45%
- YTD gain         5572.28 -5866.825.29%
- 23 month gain 5971.01 -5866.82-1.74%
- 35 month gain 5412.88 -5866.828.39%
Transactions:
01/11/2012DivGen. Electric @ 8.96p per share
05/11/2012DivMorrisons @ 3.49p per share
14/11/2012DivCentrica @ 4.62p per share
16/11/2012DivAviva @ 10p per share
22/11/2012DivApple @ £1.4181 per share (est)
30/11/2012DivBAE @ 7.5p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6013 as at 30/11/12


So lots and lots of disappointing trading updates and veiled profit warnings coming through at the moment with BG and Microsoft taking heavy beatings as a result of their own updates.
As mentioned the end result of all these shenanigans on my portfolio is a 1.83% gain in the month, as well as 16.79% in the year to date.

As to the FTSE100, the index managed an equally useful gain of 1.45% in the month but, without the benefit of dividends (FTSE 100 ex. dividends and National Grid highs.), is up a more modest 5.29% year to date.

Click to enlarge, close to return

What happens next appears to hinge entirely on the currently impending US budget cuts and tax increases, that are due to be implemented in Jan 2013, and have collectively come to be known as the "fiscal cliff". 
In the short term at least, it seems to be the one thing in the whole wide world that will determine the next direction in world markets
Excepting another European state collapsing under the weight of its own debt of course.
Which is entirely possible when you look at the circumstances behind the relatively small state of Cyprus as it closes in on a bailout of around EU23bn (http://www.bbc.co.uk: Cyprus makes progress over rescue deal with creditors).

EU23bn might not seem large in the context of the EU's problems but it is apparently equivalent to 100% of Cyprus's GDP.
And it all comes as a consequence of its Eu29bn (160% of GDP) exposure to Greece mainly through lending by 2 of its banks. The subsequent "haircut" appears to be what has done the damage.
Shoring the banks and disconnecting this potential domino effect is exactly the kind of firewall that the EU needs to have put in place through its collection of acronym titled funds but has yet to sufficiently convince that it has done so.

But that saga aside (until the next summit/toppling domino), the US fiscal cliff looks like it will dominate market sentiment until January, one way or another.

My portfolio does have a rolling bandwagon of dividends to come in through December though, which will provide a little support.
And, dividend wise, January is a month to look forward to (if markets haven't jumped off the cliff by then), with my 2 largest holdings, R-R and NG, both delivering their interim dividends which will be enough to secure me a second investable tranche early in the New Year.

In the meantime lets hope Santa brings a sturdy handrail to put around the top of that fiscal cliff.

Links to Portfolio updates:
October 2012: Portfolio Update (The Long Haul).

Saturday 1 December 2012

The Bank of England: There's a new Sheriff in town!

There's a new Sheriff coming to town.

So says George Osborne, the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, who named Mark Carney as the next Governor of the Bank of England come June 2013 when the current Governor steps down.
A step into the unknown perhaps, with an outside appointment as opposed to the typical internal succession, but it can't come soon enough for me given the patchy track record of the current Governor with his one tool fits all approach. 
A Manchester Screwdriver perhaps?

In addition there is the BoE's questionable culture and capability that has recently been highlighted in the publication of 3 independent reviews commissioned by the BoE.  

Summary news reports gleefully picked out that the Bank's governance was deemed "defective" and that its  forecasting abilities have even deteriorated since the crisis providing less accuracy than external forecasts (http://www.bbc.co.uk: Bank of England governance 'defective').

An assessment of the situation by Andrew Tyrie - Treasury Select Committee, was that the reviews and the BoE's commissioning of them was too little too late:


"The decision to commission these reviews fell well short of what was required," 


"A comprehensive review should already have taken place, not just to enable the Bank to learn from its past mistakes but also to inform the legislation currently before Parliament.

"The fact that it took so long to obtain even these reports illustrates the Bank's defective governance." (http://www.bbc.co.uk: Bank of England governance 'defective').

Following publication of the reviews, the Independent ('Autocratic management' at Bank of England under fire), reported one "former bank economist" as saying: 

"The process within the Bank was one of second-guessing what your superiors and specifically Mervyn King would like you to think about a certain subject before offering your opinion on it."


"Agreeing with the Governor was the route to advancement."

"It's all a bit pointless if you are just going to reflect back what somebody already thinks."

"There were a lot of people at the Bank being paid vast amounts of money to hold a mirror up to Mervyn."

Statements which also appear consistent with those taken from the report completed by former JP Morgan joint chief executive, Bill Winters, who warned that there:
"appears to be some tendency for them to filter recommendations in such a way as to maximise the likelihood that senior staff will find the recommendation palatable".('Autocratic management' at Bank of England under fire).

Coming back to forecasting accuracy though, it is interesting to read extracts from the report by former Federal Reserve statistics director David Stockton which:

 "raised doubts over the MPC's "overly optimistic" recovery predictions. 
The committee had made "somewhat larger forecast errors for growth" than the average of external forecasters, and failed to apply "systematic, detailed quantitative analysis" to explain its errors, ('Autocratic management' at Bank of England under fire)

Not pretty reading at all and a root and branch improvement seems long overdue.


So who is Mark Carney?

I've not looked too deeply into his track record but "the 2012 Central Bank Governor of the Year" (Euromoney magazine), is highly rated given his documented role in helping to steer the Canadian economy through the crisis. 
A journey which has seen the Canadian economy outperform its G7 peers to become "the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis levels" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney).

Recovering to pre-crisis levels sounds to me to be a pretty significant achievement. 
But it would be an even greater achievement if he could repeat the feat as the Governor of the Bank of England!

A brave (possibly), but seemingly sensible appointment that might just be the best Christmas present the UK could hope for.

But its a shame we can't unwrap it until June next year.

Related article links:
http://www.bbc.co.uk: Bank of England governance 'defective'
http://www.independent.co.uk: 'Autocratic management' at Bank of England under fire
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney
http://www.cbc.ca: Bank of Canada's Mark Carney