Fair to say it proved to be a test of the emotions with stop-start negotiations over the impending "fiscal cliff", partnering similarly conflicted negotiations over future EU budget proposals, and Greece's delayed bail-out tranche.
Of the 3 only Greece achieved a temporary lifeline with the release of a 3rd tranche of bailout funds and an extension to its debt reduction timeline. Unfortunately, one can only yawn and wait for the next chapter in this lengthening odyssey.
Elsewhere, George Osborne, the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced Mark Carney as the next Governor of the Bank of England come June 2013 when the current Governor steps down (The Bank of England: There's a new Sheriff in town!).
Back to my portfolio though and the swing from highs to lows to highs has also, as one would expect, afflicted the individual shares in my portfolio with Aviva, BAE, and R-R moving ahead by 5.73%, 4.84%, and 4.21% but, at the other extreme BG, Microsoft, and Vodafone, finished November down by -6.80%, -6.25%, and -4.22%.
Ex. dividends also had an impact of sorts with Apple, BP, Microsoft, Vodafone, and National Grid all trading without the right to the current dividend.
Fortunately, with R-R and Aviva representing more than 44% of my portfolio their movement was enough to take the portfolio forward despite the falls elsewhere.
And, completing their own circle of life, six dividends were received and added back into the porfolio, one of which was a particularly healthy windfall from Aviva.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 23 mth | |||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||
| R-R | 875.50p | 32.75% | 2.20% | 4.21% | 19.29% | 42.94% | ||
| National Grid | 704.50p | 17.24% | 5.82% | -0.28% | 12.72% | 27.40% | ||
| Aviva | 350.40p | 11.45% | 7.44% | 5.73% | 15.94% | 3.71% | ||
| BP | 431.55p | 5.25% | 4.93% | -2.65% | -5.01% | -5.72% | ||
| Apple ** | $584.98 | 5.19% | 1.33% | -0.99% | 40.15% | 72.61% | ||
| IG Group | 423.30p | 4.24% | 5.40% | -2.80% | -7.52% | -11.30% | ||
| William Hill | 337.20p | 3.50% | 3.32% | -0.24% | 66.27% | 97.54% | ||
| General Electric ** | $21.13 | 2.39% | 2.75% | 0.81% | 14.48% | 34.92% | ||
| Centrica | 325.60p | 2.27% | 5.03% | 0.46% | 12.55% | -1.81% | ||
| SSE | 1425.00p | 2.19% | 5.90% | -1.59% | 10.38% | 16.33% | ||
| Microsoft ** | $26.59 | 1.90% | 2.85% | -6.25% | -0.61% | -7.24% | ||
| Morrisons | 268.70p | 1.88% | 4.39% | 0.30% | -17.63% | 0.41% | ||
| BAE Systems | 327.30p | 1.82% | 5.95% | 4.84% | 14.80% | -0.82% | ||
| Vodafone | 161.15p | 1.74% | 7.07% | -4.22% | -9.92% | 0.01% | ||
| BG Group | 1069.50p | 1.74% | 1.51% | -6.80% | -22.30% | -17.48% | ||
| Tesco | 325.05p | 1.44% | 4.56% | 1.63% | -19.43% | -18.52% | ||
| Cash | 3.03% | 0.00% | ||||||
| 100.00% | 4.02% | |||||||
| 1 Month | YTD | 23 mth | ||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 1616.66 - | 1646.20 | 1.83% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 1409.55 - | 1646.20 | 16.79% | ||||||
| - 23 month gain 1264.20 - | 1646.20 | 30.22% | ||||||
| - 35 month gain 1000.00 - | 1646.20 | 64.62% | ||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 5782.7 - | 5866.82 | 1.45% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 5572.28 - | 5866.82 | 5.29% | ||||||
| - 23 month gain 5971.01 - | 5866.82 | -1.74% | ||||||
| - 35 month gain 5412.88 - | 5866.82 | 8.39% | ||||||
| Transactions: | ||||||||
| 01/11/2012 | Div | Gen. Electric @ 8.96p per share | ||||||
| 05/11/2012 | Div | Morrisons @ 3.49p per share | ||||||
| 14/11/2012 | Div | Centrica @ 4.62p per share | ||||||
| 16/11/2012 | Div | Aviva @ 10p per share | ||||||
| 22/11/2012 | Div | Apple @ £1.4181 per share (est) | ||||||
| 30/11/2012 | Div | BAE @ 7.5p per share | ||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | ||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6013 as at 30/11/12 | ||||||||
So lots and lots of disappointing trading updates and veiled profit warnings coming through at the moment with BG and Microsoft taking heavy beatings as a result of their own updates.
As mentioned the end result of all these shenanigans on my portfolio is a 1.83% gain in the month, as well as 16.79% in the year to date.
As to the FTSE100, the index managed an equally useful gain of 1.45% in the month but, without the benefit of dividends (FTSE 100 ex. dividends and National Grid highs.), is up a more modest 5.29% year to date.
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return |
What happens next appears to hinge entirely on the currently impending US budget cuts and tax increases, that are due to be implemented in Jan 2013, and have collectively come to be known as the "fiscal cliff".
In the short term at least, it seems to be the one thing in the whole wide world that will determine the next direction in world markets
Excepting another European state collapsing under the weight of its own debt of course.
Which is entirely possible when you look at the circumstances behind the relatively small state of Cyprus as it closes in on a bailout of around EU23bn (http://www.bbc.co.uk: Cyprus makes progress over rescue deal with creditors).
EU23bn might not seem large in the context of the EU's problems but it is apparently equivalent to 100% of Cyprus's GDP.
And it all comes as a consequence of its Eu29bn (160% of GDP) exposure to Greece mainly through lending by 2 of its banks. The subsequent "haircut" appears to be what has done the damage.
Shoring the banks and disconnecting this potential domino effect is exactly the kind of firewall that the EU needs to have put in place through its collection of acronym titled funds but has yet to sufficiently convince that it has done so.
But that saga aside (until the next summit/toppling domino), the US fiscal cliff looks like it will dominate market sentiment until January, one way or another.
My portfolio does have a rolling bandwagon of dividends to come in through December though, which will provide a little support.
And, dividend wise, January is a month to look forward to (if markets haven't jumped off the cliff by then), with my 2 largest holdings, R-R and NG, both delivering their interim dividends which will be enough to secure me a second investable tranche early in the New Year.
In the meantime lets hope Santa brings a sturdy handrail to put around the top of that fiscal cliff.
Links to Portfolio updates:
- October 2012: Portfolio Update (The Long Haul).
No comments:
Post a Comment