Tough time all round waiting for markets to settle after the bears wrest control of markets. Even more disconcerting is the loss of my watchlist and favoured research resource of many years.
I'm trying to think of a time I didn't use it but can't recall how long it has been up and running or how long I have been using it, perhaps 15 years or more?
Anyway, looks like the new owners have stamped their mark and swept away the old which has unfortunately deleted my account and my historic global watchlist which served me as a litmus test of all my thoughts, strategies, and legacy investments.
So in having to start again, the new site appears less user friendly and slower given the new graphics etc. Although, the old site has been unwieldy too given the amount of animated adverts that it was being asked to bear.
Can't complain too much but now on the lookout for new tools and resources.
Friday 9 November 2018
Monday 1 October 2018
Utilities: risk v. value.
Given the ongoing falls in UK utilities and the inertia effect it seems to having on my own portfolio, its interesting to read Citi's comments that much of the risk is now being discounted and value has appeared (uk.webfg.com: Downside for United Utilities now limited even if nationalised, Citi says).
Is this enough to sway investors and begin a fightback for these companies?
Melrose musings.
Given the current low level of global sentiment and its completed takeover of GKN, Melrose has starting to interest me today (uk.webfg.com: Melrose happy to find 'no black holes' in GKN business). More musings and analysis needed.
October 2018: Dividend Pipeline and Apple comparison
As mentioned, after a bumper couple of months, expected October dividends will be a little scarce on the ground, as will the run to the end of the year.
Through August and September, all 4 of my big hitters, Lloyds, National Grid, Aviva, and BP delivered a payout, ably supported by a number of other chunky yielding companies.
As things stand though, for the year to date and v. the start of the year portfolio figure, actual dividends received have amounted to a yield of 4.12% (not adjusted for any funds removed), which is a figure I'm happy with. Although, it also has to be noted that this may have been at the expense of some capital growth, so I continue to look for a happy balance.
One thing that occurred to me to check was my current yield on Apple, which has a historic figure of 1.6% for the year ending Sept 2017, and a consensus forecast estimate of 1.2%.
After the 15% US withholding tax and a weaker sterling exchange rate, the net yield to me is around 0.9%, and a forecast estimate of 1.03%.
However, this does not always show the bigger picture given the strong long term capital growth that Apple has given.
Just for a little comparison, if I was to take the current forecast net yield (incl. 15% withholding tax and an exchange rate of $1: £1.3), and pitch it against my original investment in Apple, I see that I am actually receiving a net yield of 6.15%. Perhaps the best of both worlds and long may it continue to appreciate its share price and increase its dividend.
Through August and September, all 4 of my big hitters, Lloyds, National Grid, Aviva, and BP delivered a payout, ably supported by a number of other chunky yielding companies.
As things stand though, for the year to date and v. the start of the year portfolio figure, actual dividends received have amounted to a yield of 4.12% (not adjusted for any funds removed), which is a figure I'm happy with. Although, it also has to be noted that this may have been at the expense of some capital growth, so I continue to look for a happy balance.
One thing that occurred to me to check was my current yield on Apple, which has a historic figure of 1.6% for the year ending Sept 2017, and a consensus forecast estimate of 1.2%.
After the 15% US withholding tax and a weaker sterling exchange rate, the net yield to me is around 0.9%, and a forecast estimate of 1.03%.
However, this does not always show the bigger picture given the strong long term capital growth that Apple has given.
Just for a little comparison, if I was to take the current forecast net yield (incl. 15% withholding tax and an exchange rate of $1: £1.3), and pitch it against my original investment in Apple, I see that I am actually receiving a net yield of 6.15%. Perhaps the best of both worlds and long may it continue to appreciate its share price and increase its dividend.
| Looking ahead: | ||||
| Rate | ||||
| Company | c. | p. | Xd | Paid |
| National Grid | 15.49 | |||
| Vodafone | 4.84 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| Apple | 63 | |||
| SSE | 28.4 | |||
| Berkeley Group | 56.75 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 59.51 | |||
| BP | 10 | |||
| Galliford Try | 28 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| Aviva | 19 | |||
| Apple | 73 | |||
| Lloyds | 2.05 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| BP | 10 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 28.43 | |||
| Vodafone | 10.23 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| National Grid | 30.44 | |||
| Apple | 73 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| SSE | 66.3 | |||
| BP | 10.25 | |||
| Aviva | 9.25 | |||
| Standard Life Aberdeen | 7.3 | |||
| Lloyds | 1.07 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 28.43 | |||
| Standard Chartered | 6 | 22/10/2018 | ||
| BAT | 48.8 | 04/10/2018 | 15/11/2018 | |
| Galliford Try | 49 | 08/11/2018 | 05/12/2018 | |
| Imperial Brands | 22/11/2018 | 31/12/2018 |
Thursday 20 September 2018
September 18: Dividend Pipeline
After a bumper month in July for dividends, can I really expect to see a better August?
I can indeed as a positive rush to pay out comes from RDS, SSE, BP, Aviva, Standard Life, Imperial Brands, and Lloyds.
In particular, Lloyds, BP, and Aviva, are 3 of my 4 big hitters (the 4th being National Grid which delivered last month).
As a newer holding, Standard Life Aberdeen will also make its maiden payment into my portfolio.
All of that being the case, September's payments will almost (not quite), double that of August's which is very satisfying following the unusual drought in July, courtesy of my portfolio pack being reshuffled and dealt over the last year or two.
It also means that the flow of dividends will start to slow for the remainder of the year until National Grid starts 2019. I can see a resulting yield of around 4.1% based upon my 2017 starting value but we will see how that actually stacks up come the year-end.
I can indeed as a positive rush to pay out comes from RDS, SSE, BP, Aviva, Standard Life, Imperial Brands, and Lloyds.
In particular, Lloyds, BP, and Aviva, are 3 of my 4 big hitters (the 4th being National Grid which delivered last month).
As a newer holding, Standard Life Aberdeen will also make its maiden payment into my portfolio.
All of that being the case, September's payments will almost (not quite), double that of August's which is very satisfying following the unusual drought in July, courtesy of my portfolio pack being reshuffled and dealt over the last year or two.
It also means that the flow of dividends will start to slow for the remainder of the year until National Grid starts 2019. I can see a resulting yield of around 4.1% based upon my 2017 starting value but we will see how that actually stacks up come the year-end.
Rate
|
||||
Company
|
c.
|
p.
|
Xd
|
Paid
|
| National Grid | 15.49 | |||
| Vodafone | 4.84 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| Apple | 63 | |||
| SSE | 28.4 | |||
| Berkeley Group | 56.75 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 59.51 | |||
| BP | 10 | |||
| Galliford Try | 28 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| Aviva | 19 | |||
| Apple | 73 | |||
| Lloyds | 2.05 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| BP | 10 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 28.43 | |||
| Vodafone | 10.23 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| National Grid | 30.44 | |||
| Apple | 73 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | 17/09/2018 | ||
| SSE | 66.3 | 21/09/2018 | ||
| BP | 10.25 | 21/09/2018 | ||
| Aviva | 9.25 | 24/09/2018 | ||
| Standard Life Aberdeen | 7.3 | 25/09/2018 | ||
| Lloyds | 1.07 | 26/09/2018 | ||
| Imperial Brands | 28.43 | 28/09/2018 | ||
| Standard Chartered | 6 | 22/10/2018 | ||
| BAT | 48.8 | 04/10/2018 | 15/11/2018 | |
| Galliford Try | 49 | 08/11/2018 | 05/12/2018 |
August 2018: Portfolio Update
August brought further swings with my portfolio falling a smaller -0.51% v. a -4.08% fall in the FTSE 100.
YTD that leaves my index marginally positive for the year to date at 0.93% v. a -3.32% decline in the FTSE.
The big movement and news coming from Apple (in my portfolio at least), which once breaching $207.05 became the first US company with a trillion dollar market capitalisation which was enough to see it run as high as $227.
This came as Apple reported consensus beating 3rd quarter results (www.apple.com: apple-reports-third-quarter-results).
Elsewhere there were widespread falls led by Vodafone (-11.56%), and BAT (-11.41%). With just 2 other gainers in Standard Life (+1.47%), and Galliford Try (+4.02%), in addition to Apple, the falls managed to outweigh the gains.
And after last month's dividend drought, it was nice to see a good contribution this month with National Grid leading the way.
YTD that leaves my index marginally positive for the year to date at 0.93% v. a -3.32% decline in the FTSE.
The big movement and news coming from Apple (in my portfolio at least), which once breaching $207.05 became the first US company with a trillion dollar market capitalisation which was enough to see it run as high as $227.
This came as Apple reported consensus beating 3rd quarter results (www.apple.com: apple-reports-third-quarter-results).
Elsewhere there were widespread falls led by Vodafone (-11.56%), and BAT (-11.41%). With just 2 other gainers in Standard Life (+1.47%), and Galliford Try (+4.02%), in addition to Apple, the falls managed to outweigh the gains.
And after last month's dividend drought, it was nice to see a good contribution this month with National Grid leading the way.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | |||||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | All time | ||||||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | ||||||
| Lloyds | 59.30p |
23.61%
| 5.60% | -4.94% | -12.87% | -3.96% | |||||
| Aviva | 485.00p | 12.32% | 6.04% | -3.00% | -4.24% | 35.59% | |||||
| National Grid | 810.00p | 11.89% | 5.84% | -0.41% | -7.14% | 67.37% | |||||
| BP | 547.30p | 11.95% | 5.64% | -4.54% | 4.71% | 31.55% | |||||
| Apple ** | $227.63 | 12.82% | 1.02% | 20.54% | 39.73% | 503.33% | |||||
| BAT | 3721.50p | 2.48% | 5.41% | -11.41% | -25.84% | 10.95% | |||||
| Imperial Brands | 2744.00p | 3.85% | 6.85% | -6.09% | -7.25% | 14.45% | |||||
| Royal Dutch Shell | 2540.50p | 2.75% | 5.65% | -4.90% | 1.28% | -1.31% | |||||
| Vodafone | 164.50p | 1.87% | 8.26% | -11.56% | -27.79% | -32.14% | |||||
| SSE | 1253.00p | 1.21% | 7.78% | 0.24% | -5.08% | 8.87% | |||||
| Galliford Try | 970.00p | 2.62% | 7.21% | 4.02% | 24.42% | 19.16% | |||||
| Standard Chartered | 627.10p | 2.97% | 2.72% | -8.85% | -11.36% | -11.36% | |||||
| Standard Life Aberdeen | 316.90p | 4.20% | 7.49% | 1.47% | -6.10% | -6.08% | |||||
| Cash | 5.46% | 0.00% | |||||||||
| 100.00% | 4.95% | ||||||||||
| 1 month | YTD | All time | |||||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | |||||||||||
| - 1 month gain 2633.40 | 2608.23 | -0.51% | |||||||||
| - YTD gain 2583.68 | 2608.23 | 0.93% | |||||||||
| - 104 mnth gain 1000.00 | 2608.23 | 160.82% | |||||||||
| Unit Price - £ | 2.60823 | (Starting price - £1) | |||||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | |||||||||||
| - 1 month gain 7678.20 | 7432.42 | -4.08% | |||||||||
| - YTD gain 7687.80 | 7432.42 | -3.32% | |||||||||
| - 104 mnth gain 5412.88 | 7432.42 | 37.31% | |||||||||
| Transactions: | |||||||||||
03/08/2018
|
Div
|
Vodafone @ 9.09p per share
| |||||||||
08/08/2018
|
Div
|
BAT @ 48.80p per share
| |||||||||
16/08/2018
|
Div
|
National Grid @ 30.44p per share
| |||||||||
20/08/2018
|
Div
|
Apple @ 48.69p per share
| |||||||||
31/08/2018
|
Funds Removed @ 2.60823 (Aug.18 Index close)
| ||||||||||
| Notes: | |||||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | |||||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 13 as at 31/08/2018 | |||||||||||
| *** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.11 as at 31/08/2018 | |||||||||||
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
August 2018: Dividend Pipeline
So after a drought in July, where do we sit with dividends in the pipeline at the moment?
Well August looks significantly better with National Grid leading the way supported by BAT, Vodafone and Apple.
In addition: RDS, BP, Aviva, Standard Life, Lloyds, Imperial Brands, Standard Chartered all go ex dividend in August.
Looking ahead:
Well August looks significantly better with National Grid leading the way supported by BAT, Vodafone and Apple.
In addition: RDS, BP, Aviva, Standard Life, Lloyds, Imperial Brands, Standard Chartered all go ex dividend in August.
Looking ahead:
| Rate | ||||
| Company | c. | p. | Xd | Paid |
| National Grid | 15.49 | |||
| Vodafone | 4.84 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| Apple | 63 | |||
| SSE | 28.4 | |||
| Berkeley Group | 56.75 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 59.51 | |||
| BP | 10 | |||
| Galliford Try | 28 | |||
| BAT | 48.8 | |||
| Aviva | 19 | |||
| Apple | 73 | |||
| Lloyds | 2.05 | |||
| RDS 'B' | 47 | |||
| BP | 10 | |||
| Imperial Brands | 28.43 | |||
| Vodafone | 10.23 | 03/08/2018 | ||
| BAT | 48.8 | 08/08/2018 | ||
| National Grid | 30.44 | 15/08/2018 | ||
| Apple | 73 | 10/08/2018 | 16/08/2018 | |
| RDS 'B' | 47 | 09/08/2018 | 17/09/2018 | |
| SSE | 66.3 | 21/09/2018 | ||
| BP | 10.25 | 09/08/2018 | 21/09/2018 | |
| Aviva | 9.25 | 16/08/2018 | 24/09/2018 | |
| Standard Life Aberdeen | 7.3 | 16/08/2018 | 25/09/2018 | |
| Lloyds | 1.07 | 16/08/2018 | 26/09/2018 | |
| Imperial Brands | 28.43 | 23/08/2018 | 28/09/2018 | |
| Standard Chartered | 6 | 09/08/2018 | 22/10/2018 | |
| BAT | 48.8 | 04/10/2018 | 15/11/2018 | |
| Galliford Try | 49 | 08/11/2018 | 05/12/2018 |
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