Sunday, 13 May 2018

A quandary of a quagmire or quagmired in quandaries.

OK, so where do we go from here, in bringing things up to date, it feels like my portfolio has stagnated a little to the point where I seem to be tracking the FTSE's performance.
But, this is probably more a case of patience required and continuing to play the same long game that I have tried to follow this last 9 years.
That being said, some changes have been required and that step has made me a little more impatient and drawn into looking at my portfolio through a different set of eyes.

There are a few candidates that I have alluded to and, in turn these have opened up fresh channels with more candidate but as things stand, I need to divest some holdings in order to invest in anything new.

I've managed to start a small holding in a recovery share though, Galliford Try.

Companies like Standard Chartered also come to mind which in some respects is following a similar path to recovery that Lloyds has followed, but it is a little further behind.
I think it also has greater prospects than Lloyds given its extended international presence particularly in the Far East where it has historically been very strong.
I seem to have been an onlooker to Standard Chartered over the last 10 years or so without ever feeling the opportunity to invest has presented itself.

In looking at banking and finance, Barclays is also receiving a lot of analyst coverage for a similar turning point on its road to recovery.

Lloyds and Aviva hold a substantial and influential part of my portfolio with no plans to change.

Across the pond, I have long had a hankering for Disney shares given the ongoing ability to recycle existing content to new generations whilst also producing new content. The addition of Marvel and potentially Fox only adds to this content arsenal. In turn, all of this vast library or content is recycled in a different way through its theme parks, and potential new streaming service.

Amongst current holdings, I have been adding to Imperial Brands and National Grid, and it seems a missed opportunity not to have added to Imperial Brands more substantially.

BAT has also pulled back with Imperial Brands and Phillip Morris, but after its own big purchase last year of Reynolds, it still has lots of opportunity to increase margins and profits.

I also wonder if there should be a future proof scenario, which can now be much more focused than the tech bubble of 2000 in that the surviving giants are amongst us. What will a list of technology shares like Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla, Apple etc. etc. look like in another 10, 20. 30 years and more?
I have already successfully held Apple, and Microsoft. Cisco was less successful though.

I have considered offloading Vodafone to raise funds. For me its transformation isn't clear or fast enough. But, the sudden rush by brokers to reiterate forecasts of 20-30% share price gains, and the Liberty global asset purchases, has given me pause, so I will wait a little longer.

A further sale of Apple has also crossed my mind with the dollar strengthening again. Whilst dividends and cash piles continue to grow, the company is heavily dependent on a possibly maturing smartphone market (which it transformed), but, if it is maturing, I'm not sure where Apple can go next. It seems not to have brought many new things to market when so much has been hinted and promised e.g. Apple TV.
Instead it continues to play cat and mouse with analysts over quarterly sales and estimates but with the recent chapter revealing a record Q2 and new share price highs, I'm still holding. Perhaps the repatriation of profits held abroad will trigger something more. 
I would like to see Apple rated on a multiple at least on a par with Google (renamed Alphabet), which is only moderately higher but would see a substantially higher share price.

SSE remains a small holding in my portfolio, weakened by political uncertainty but still delivering strongly on its dividend.

A strengthening oil price is working wonders on a recovering BP and Royal Dutch Shell

Berkeley is my current consideration, having delivered a 76% share price gain and a further 8.26% from dividends it has become a strong substantial component of my portfolio, supported by a goodly number of hold forecasts.
However, do those hold forecasts combined with an uncertain and cyclical housing market give me enough conviction to sell some or all my holding to recycle elsewhere.
Does Berkeley's concentration on London and the South create its own niche, or does this exposure to London have its potential pitfalls given the recent climate?

So that is the conundrum, a sale of Berkeley could allow me to add to my Galliford Try holding to keep a construction and housing exposure with a potentially better opportunity in recovery, and/or give me the funds to add a stakes in other companies currently attracting me with Standard Chartered, Barclays or Imperial Brands leading my list.

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