Apple @ $663, -$9.60 (-1.43%)
Could be big news here for Apple shareholders if correct.
In a research note from Sterne Agee, Analyst Shaw Wu, suggests that, following a lack of compatibility in previous generations, the next iPhone (surely imminent now), will debut on the worlds biggest mobile network operated by China Mobile.
Interesting that Apple's partnerships with the number 2 and 3 carriers in China gives it access to around 988 million subscribers in the world largest mobile market.
But launching on China Mobile, the largest incumbent carrier, would give it access to a further 650 million subscribers which, apparently, is a number "almost equal to the combined populations of the U.S, Brazil, and Mexico" (bloomberg.com: IPhone Fails To Gain China Share As Samsung Lead Triples: Tech).
With Apple ranking only 7th in terms of market share of the world's biggest mobile market (allthingsd.com: iPhone Ranked Seventh in China’s Smartphone Market — Watch Out, ZTE), there is obviously a huge prize to play for.
Putting thing into surprising perspective it appears that smartphones operating Windows have had a greater share of this market that iPhone (www.bgr.com: Windows Phone overtakes iPhone in world’s largest smartphone market).
And although, the comparables will be very tough (due to an extra week in last years Christmas encompassing quarter), it could be that a new wave of momentum is building up in Apple's fortunes with new product announcements in the run-up to Christmas and Chinese New Year!
Related article links:
- http://www.uswitch.com: iPhone 5 to be ‘true world phone’, launching at last on China Mobile, claims analyst
- http://www.bloomberg.com: IPhone Fails To Gain China Share As Samsung Lead Triples: Tech
- http://allthingsd.com: iPhone Ranked Seventh in China’s Smartphone Market — Watch Out, ZTE
- http://www.bgr.com: Windows Phone overtakes iPhone in world’s largest smartphone market
Friday, 31 August 2012
19th Sept. - ex dividend date - IG Group/Aviva
IG Group @ 430p, +1.30p (+0.30%)
Forgot to mention in my most recent post on IG Group (Portfolio top up of IG Group.), that having increased the 2012 final dividend by 13.56% to 16.75p per share, the shares are due to go ex dividend on the 19th September.
The payment coming due on the 23 October.
Aviva @ 325.5p, +2.50p (+0.77%)
The 19th seems to be a popular date for ex dividends though, with another of my holdings Aviva (fortuitous for me then), also going ex dividend.
This time with their interim of 10p per share, which then becomes payable on the 16th November.
Related posts:
- Portfolio top up of IG Group.
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
Forgot to mention in my most recent post on IG Group (Portfolio top up of IG Group.), that having increased the 2012 final dividend by 13.56% to 16.75p per share, the shares are due to go ex dividend on the 19th September.
The payment coming due on the 23 October.
Aviva @ 325.5p, +2.50p (+0.77%)
The 19th seems to be a popular date for ex dividends though, with another of my holdings Aviva (fortuitous for me then), also going ex dividend.
This time with their interim of 10p per share, which then becomes payable on the 16th November.
Related posts:
- Portfolio top up of IG Group.
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
Thursday, 30 August 2012
Samsung unveils latest Windows based smartphone!
Just days after the California jury ruling that Samsung infringed on Apple's patents, Samsung has unveiled the first smartphone running Microsoft's latest mobile software (Samsung steals march on Nokia with first Windows phone).
Surprising and a bit hurried perhaps but the announcement comes ahead of Nokia's "planned" announcement on September the 5th, and serves to illustrate the speed at which Samsung can mobilise its development and manufacturing resources.
Could this be, as some post ruling commentators suggested, the first move towards a repositioning in the smartphone/tablet markets with Microsoft finally managing to innovate its way to making the big 2 (Android and iOS), a big 2.5, or 2.3, or 2.2!
Samsung also showed off Windows 8 tablets as well as the latest version of its Galaxy Note running "Jelly Bean", the latest version of the Android OS
Will other manufacturers follow suit as a means of diversifying away from any perceived financial liability from Apple lawsuits.
Who knows but the speculation keeps the market fresh and interesting and might provide some momentum to Microsoft shares.
Microsoft @ $30.65, +$0.02 (+0.07%)
Related article links:
- http://www.reuters.com: Samsung steals march on Nokia with first Windows phone
- http://adventuresinequities.blogspot.co.uk; Smartphone patent wars: Apple awarded $1.05bn from "wilfull" Samsung infringment.
Surprising and a bit hurried perhaps but the announcement comes ahead of Nokia's "planned" announcement on September the 5th, and serves to illustrate the speed at which Samsung can mobilise its development and manufacturing resources.
Could this be, as some post ruling commentators suggested, the first move towards a repositioning in the smartphone/tablet markets with Microsoft finally managing to innovate its way to making the big 2 (Android and iOS), a big 2.5, or 2.3, or 2.2!
Samsung also showed off Windows 8 tablets as well as the latest version of its Galaxy Note running "Jelly Bean", the latest version of the Android OS
Will other manufacturers follow suit as a means of diversifying away from any perceived financial liability from Apple lawsuits.
Who knows but the speculation keeps the market fresh and interesting and might provide some momentum to Microsoft shares.
Microsoft @ $30.65, +$0.02 (+0.07%)
Related article links:
- http://www.reuters.com: Samsung steals march on Nokia with first Windows phone
- http://adventuresinequities.blogspot.co.uk; Smartphone patent wars: Apple awarded $1.05bn from "wilfull" Samsung infringment.
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Portfolio top up of IG Group.
IG Group @ 423.10p, -1.40p (-0.33%)
I was tempted back into the market yesterday by IG Group which has continued to pull back since its most recent results (IG Group beats forecasts. What storm clouds?).
At the time the shares stood at 450p or so but are now in the 420's.
They have actually slipped a bit more since I bought yesterday but c'est la vie.
Recent falls now put the shares on a forward pe of 11.1 and a consensus forecast yield of 5.4%.
The current doubts don't appear to be anything new given that certain banks/brokers have always attempted to call time on the company's growth after each set of results.
But the company is clearly still a leader in its field and more importantly appears to be conservatively managed with a high degree of focus on shareholder returns with a dividend that has increased 87% in the 5 years to 31 May 2012, and whilst maintaining a dividend cover in the region of 1.7 times.
This could arguably be higher, and so give more protection, but given the backing of its cash reserves, debt free balance sheet, and the fact that it has maintained cover in this region for many years now bodes well and illustrates a good understanding of the business.
Revenues have increased 123% over the same period and excluding last years blip due to the value of the Japanese acquisition being written down (Has the sun set on IG Index?), profits before tax have increased by 91.48% over the 5 years to 31 May 2012
Cash has reduced over the same period though, as the company has expanded internationally and invested in technology but as at 31 May 12, was back on a healthy one year uptrend at £228m (2011:£124m), contributing to a a strong debt free balance sheet.
Taking a look at the share's relative performance this year (Chart screenshots courtesy of Digitallook.), I can see that they are currently underperforming the FTSE 100 by around 16% (RH scale in the first chart), and its own index, the FTSE 250 by around 26% giving them some discount to recover in the short term to catch the market average.
Relative to FTSE 100:
Relative to FTSE 250:
Obviously, a lot depends on Europe's future health (as everything seems to currently), and there are questions over growth.
I actually think that the 2 go hand in hand and if Europe (and other markets) recover, then growth will return as confidence in economies and consumers return.
In terms of the explosive growth that the company has experienced in the past, and analysts want going forward, this is probably now reliant on US markets opening up to its products.
Currently, I read that the company's 2 main products: spreadbetting; and contracts for difference, are illegal in the US (http://en.wikipedia.org: IG Group), but that the company does have a strategic foothold with a US based electronic market place allowing consumers to trade derivative products.
And, whilst the purchase for me is a top up on my existing long term holding (July 2012: Portfolio update.), I can still see enough to suggest a potential 20% upside plus a reasonably safe 5% dividend (if anything can be termed safe these days).
Fingers crossed.
Related posts:
- IG Group beats forecasts. What storm clouds?
- Has the sun set on IG Index?
- http://en.wikipedia.org: IG Group
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
I was tempted back into the market yesterday by IG Group which has continued to pull back since its most recent results (IG Group beats forecasts. What storm clouds?).
At the time the shares stood at 450p or so but are now in the 420's.
They have actually slipped a bit more since I bought yesterday but c'est la vie.
Recent falls now put the shares on a forward pe of 11.1 and a consensus forecast yield of 5.4%.
The current doubts don't appear to be anything new given that certain banks/brokers have always attempted to call time on the company's growth after each set of results.
But the company is clearly still a leader in its field and more importantly appears to be conservatively managed with a high degree of focus on shareholder returns with a dividend that has increased 87% in the 5 years to 31 May 2012, and whilst maintaining a dividend cover in the region of 1.7 times.
This could arguably be higher, and so give more protection, but given the backing of its cash reserves, debt free balance sheet, and the fact that it has maintained cover in this region for many years now bodes well and illustrates a good understanding of the business.
Revenues have increased 123% over the same period and excluding last years blip due to the value of the Japanese acquisition being written down (Has the sun set on IG Index?), profits before tax have increased by 91.48% over the 5 years to 31 May 2012
Cash has reduced over the same period though, as the company has expanded internationally and invested in technology but as at 31 May 12, was back on a healthy one year uptrend at £228m (2011:£124m), contributing to a a strong debt free balance sheet.
Taking a look at the share's relative performance this year (Chart screenshots courtesy of Digitallook.), I can see that they are currently underperforming the FTSE 100 by around 16% (RH scale in the first chart), and its own index, the FTSE 250 by around 26% giving them some discount to recover in the short term to catch the market average.
Relative to FTSE 100:
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
Obviously, a lot depends on Europe's future health (as everything seems to currently), and there are questions over growth.
I actually think that the 2 go hand in hand and if Europe (and other markets) recover, then growth will return as confidence in economies and consumers return.
In terms of the explosive growth that the company has experienced in the past, and analysts want going forward, this is probably now reliant on US markets opening up to its products.
Currently, I read that the company's 2 main products: spreadbetting; and contracts for difference, are illegal in the US (http://en.wikipedia.org: IG Group), but that the company does have a strategic foothold with a US based electronic market place allowing consumers to trade derivative products.
And, whilst the purchase for me is a top up on my existing long term holding (July 2012: Portfolio update.), I can still see enough to suggest a potential 20% upside plus a reasonably safe 5% dividend (if anything can be termed safe these days).
Fingers crossed.
Related posts:
- IG Group beats forecasts. What storm clouds?
- Has the sun set on IG Index?
- http://en.wikipedia.org: IG Group
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
Sunday, 26 August 2012
Norwich & Peterborough Gold Current Account and Holiday currency.
OK so slightly different today as I am thinking of my holidays, and how best to access currency in the current climate.
I've long lamented Nationwide's decision to pull back into the pack of mediocrity with its decision to end the one differentiating benefit to its current account holders and indeed, to its position amongst high street banks and building societies.
What was the benefit you ask?
Well, Nationwide's current account, the Flex Account previously enabled holders to withdraw cash in the local currency out of an ATM anywhere in the world with no withdrawal fee from Nationwide (ATM provider may charge), no currency handling charge and at the wholesale exchange rate (rather than the tourist).
For me at least, this made it a must have product for travellers along with their credit card which operated in a similarly charge free fashion when used for payment and settled at the end of the month (cash withdrawals incurred a more normal charge and interest etc etc.).
However, Nationwide now applies various rates and charges. For example debit card withdrawals incur a £1 ATM charge and a 2% exchange load.
In its place the Nationwide now offers European travel insurance to Flex Account holders that meet certain conditions.
Like I said mediocre offerings then, from a Building Society that spends a lot of money telling you its different, and the benefits of mutuality, but ditched its one differentiating product.
No wonder shareholder members are looking at Director's generous remunerations and asking what they are doing to deserve them!
But following up on my weekly email from Moneysaving expert it looks like there might be a viable alternative on the market from Norwich and Peterborough BS, which is now merged with the Yorkshire BS.
The product in question is the society's Gold Classic Current Account which offers free card usage abroad to qualifying account holders (allowing for any local ATM operator charges of course).
To qualify requires a minimum £500 a month to be paid into the account which qualifies the holder for all overseas debit card transactions (payments and withdrawals), to be free of Norwich and Peterborough charges.
Interestingly there are also other attractive benefits like card and key protection, and cheap share dealing!
Nationwide et al please take note!
From experience being armed with a good credit and debit card for overseas spending is a very satisfying start (and one less stress), to any trip, so it looks well worth a look to me.
Related article links:
- http://www.moneysavingexpert.com: Cheap Travel Money
- http://www.nandp.co.uk: GOLD CLASSIC CURRENT ACCOUNT
- http://www.nandp.co.uk: HOW DO WE COMPARE?
- http://www.moneysavingexpert.com: WANT THE FAMOUS MARTIN'S MONEY TIPS E-MAIL?
I've long lamented Nationwide's decision to pull back into the pack of mediocrity with its decision to end the one differentiating benefit to its current account holders and indeed, to its position amongst high street banks and building societies.
What was the benefit you ask?
Well, Nationwide's current account, the Flex Account previously enabled holders to withdraw cash in the local currency out of an ATM anywhere in the world with no withdrawal fee from Nationwide (ATM provider may charge), no currency handling charge and at the wholesale exchange rate (rather than the tourist).
For me at least, this made it a must have product for travellers along with their credit card which operated in a similarly charge free fashion when used for payment and settled at the end of the month (cash withdrawals incurred a more normal charge and interest etc etc.).
However, Nationwide now applies various rates and charges. For example debit card withdrawals incur a £1 ATM charge and a 2% exchange load.
In its place the Nationwide now offers European travel insurance to Flex Account holders that meet certain conditions.
Like I said mediocre offerings then, from a Building Society that spends a lot of money telling you its different, and the benefits of mutuality, but ditched its one differentiating product.
No wonder shareholder members are looking at Director's generous remunerations and asking what they are doing to deserve them!
But following up on my weekly email from Moneysaving expert it looks like there might be a viable alternative on the market from Norwich and Peterborough BS, which is now merged with the Yorkshire BS.
The product in question is the society's Gold Classic Current Account which offers free card usage abroad to qualifying account holders (allowing for any local ATM operator charges of course).
To qualify requires a minimum £500 a month to be paid into the account which qualifies the holder for all overseas debit card transactions (payments and withdrawals), to be free of Norwich and Peterborough charges.
Interestingly there are also other attractive benefits like card and key protection, and cheap share dealing!
Nationwide et al please take note!
From experience being armed with a good credit and debit card for overseas spending is a very satisfying start (and one less stress), to any trip, so it looks well worth a look to me.
Related article links:
- http://www.moneysavingexpert.com: Cheap Travel Money
- http://www.nandp.co.uk: GOLD CLASSIC CURRENT ACCOUNT
- http://www.nandp.co.uk: HOW DO WE COMPARE?
- http://www.moneysavingexpert.com: WANT THE FAMOUS MARTIN'S MONEY TIPS E-MAIL?
Saturday, 25 August 2012
Smartphone patent wars: Apple awarded $1.05bn from "wilfull" Samsung infringment.
The significant business headline over the weekend was the $1.05bn of damages awarded to Apple by a Californian jury in yet another round of patent wars, this time with Samsung Electronics of South Korea (Analysis: Sweeping Apple win, but Samsung set for bounce-back).
The very same Samsung which can currently lay claim to being the biggest seller of smartphones in the world with around 50 million sold in April to June.
And whilst the fine (prior to appeal), may only make a small dent in Samsung's $21bn cash pile it remains to be seen whether the company's products are subsequently subjected to a temporary ban in the US market.
At $1.05bn in damages, this might be the most significant patent infringement in the smartphone wars.
But of course, it won't end here with Samsung likely to appeal and Apple to ask for increased damages and a sales injunction. There are also ongoing legal cases around the globe.
The linked Reuters article does suggest that Samsung could yet increase product prices to compensate or that its ability to innovate rapidly might achieve a work around enabling it to continue marketing its key products. Something which it has successfully managed ahead of previous rulings.
Interesting to see various suggestions that this might ultimately work against Apple, or at least in Samsung's favour over the company's other competitors.
Particularly if Apple were to pursue the same patent infringement claims against less financially backed rivals offering Android OS products.
So a biggish victory and justification for Apple but (in my opinion), not a game changing development which, thankfully, continues to rest in the products offered and their ongoing development.
And Apple can at least lay a valid claim to having significantly changed the game with its iPods, iPhones, and iPads, which have all revolutionised/created their respective markets and forced rivals to innovate just to stay in the game.
In its way Apple has been a relentless consumer champion courtesy of the late Steve Jobs' vision of how products should work and interact with the user.
Long may that success continue.
Related article links:
- http://www.reuters.com: Analysis: Sweeping Apple win, but Samsung set for bounce-back
The very same Samsung which can currently lay claim to being the biggest seller of smartphones in the world with around 50 million sold in April to June.
And whilst the fine (prior to appeal), may only make a small dent in Samsung's $21bn cash pile it remains to be seen whether the company's products are subsequently subjected to a temporary ban in the US market.
At $1.05bn in damages, this might be the most significant patent infringement in the smartphone wars.
But of course, it won't end here with Samsung likely to appeal and Apple to ask for increased damages and a sales injunction. There are also ongoing legal cases around the globe.
The linked Reuters article does suggest that Samsung could yet increase product prices to compensate or that its ability to innovate rapidly might achieve a work around enabling it to continue marketing its key products. Something which it has successfully managed ahead of previous rulings.
Interesting to see various suggestions that this might ultimately work against Apple, or at least in Samsung's favour over the company's other competitors.
Particularly if Apple were to pursue the same patent infringement claims against less financially backed rivals offering Android OS products.
So a biggish victory and justification for Apple but (in my opinion), not a game changing development which, thankfully, continues to rest in the products offered and their ongoing development.
And Apple can at least lay a valid claim to having significantly changed the game with its iPods, iPhones, and iPads, which have all revolutionised/created their respective markets and forced rivals to innovate just to stay in the game.
In its way Apple has been a relentless consumer champion courtesy of the late Steve Jobs' vision of how products should work and interact with the user.
Long may that success continue.
Related article links:
- http://www.reuters.com: Analysis: Sweeping Apple win, but Samsung set for bounce-back
Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Apple valued at $623bn and returns to dividend payments.
So less than 24 hours after setting a new level of market capitalisation at $623bn Apple also completes its return to dividend payments following the company's announced intention in March (Stock update: Apple resumes dividends for first time since 1995.).
The dividend landed in my portfolio yesterday.
$623bn means that Apple has become the stock markets most highly valued company ever as it eclipses the dot.com driven $621bn achieved by Microsoft way back in 1999.
Of course as commentators are rightly qualifying the comparison does not account for inflation but, by the same token how inflationary was the bubble which drove Microsoft to those levels.
Anyway, Apple's return to dividend payments now means that all my portfolio holdings pay dividends (July 2012: Portfolio update.).
If all continue to meet or beat consensus forecasts then it suggests that my portfolio will have a yield of around 4% if held for the next 12 months.
Long may it continue.
Related posts:
- Stock update: Apple resumes dividends for first time since 1995.
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
The dividend landed in my portfolio yesterday.
$623bn means that Apple has become the stock markets most highly valued company ever as it eclipses the dot.com driven $621bn achieved by Microsoft way back in 1999.
Of course as commentators are rightly qualifying the comparison does not account for inflation but, by the same token how inflationary was the bubble which drove Microsoft to those levels.
Anyway, Apple's return to dividend payments now means that all my portfolio holdings pay dividends (July 2012: Portfolio update.).
If all continue to meet or beat consensus forecasts then it suggests that my portfolio will have a yield of around 4% if held for the next 12 months.
Long may it continue.
Related posts:
- Stock update: Apple resumes dividends for first time since 1995.
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
Tuesday, 21 August 2012
George Soros swimming against the tide!
Intriguing to see that the Daily Telegraph reports that the legendary George Soros has bought a stake in Manchester United with no dividend and practically no voting rights.
The paper reports that the 3,114,588 shares purchases amount to a 7.85% stake in the second coming/newly floated club.
Interestingly in the same article the paper also reports that Soros purchased 341,000 shares in Facebook last week which seems very much against the tide and wave of selling.
Is there a lesson there for us wannabe's with Buffett, Munger, and Soros, all in their 80's?
Is it the case that their life experience means that they really have seen it all before (any number of times) and learnt the lessons.
I only hope I can learn a smidgeon of it before I get to my 80's.
Added:
I didn't just think it all added up and it appears that 7.85% is a reference to the proportion of A shares bought which appears to equate to a near 1.9% stake as reported elsewhere (http://www.bbc.co.uk: Manchester United: George Soros invests in football club). Confusing to say the least!
Related article link:
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk: George Soros takes 7.85pc stake in Manchester United
- http://www.bbc.co.uk: Manchester United: George Soros invests in football club
The paper reports that the 3,114,588 shares purchases amount to a 7.85% stake in the second coming/newly floated club.
Interestingly in the same article the paper also reports that Soros purchased 341,000 shares in Facebook last week which seems very much against the tide and wave of selling.
Is there a lesson there for us wannabe's with Buffett, Munger, and Soros, all in their 80's?
Is it the case that their life experience means that they really have seen it all before (any number of times) and learnt the lessons.
I only hope I can learn a smidgeon of it before I get to my 80's.
Added:
I didn't just think it all added up and it appears that 7.85% is a reference to the proportion of A shares bought which appears to equate to a near 1.9% stake as reported elsewhere (http://www.bbc.co.uk: Manchester United: George Soros invests in football club). Confusing to say the least!
Related article link:
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk: George Soros takes 7.85pc stake in Manchester United
- http://www.bbc.co.uk: Manchester United: George Soros invests in football club
Thursday, 16 August 2012
2012 Dividend bull period update to the update (to the update!) etc. etc.
National Grid @ 699p, +2.5p (0.36%).
So the big one dropped in yesterday, from National Grid, less than 24 hours after the company's shares hit a new 52 week closing high of 700.33p.
700.33p (Ofgem concerns to one side), still places the shares on a very attractive forward yield of 5.84%.
Anyway, this latest receipt, and the current share price of 699p, means that the company have given me gains on my investment of 46.85%, 18.06% of which is dividends.
This latest receipt also brings to a close a real bull period for dividends into my portfolio as detailed below:
01 Jun - BAE @ 11.3p per share - Received
08 Jun - William Hill @ 6.7p per share - Received
13 Jun - Centrica @ 11.11p per share - Received
14 Jun - Microsoft @ 10.97p per share (est. based on $1.5491:£1 and 15% tax) - Received
20 Jun - Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets @ 7.53p per share - Received
27 Jun - BP @ 8c per share - Received
04 July - Rolls-Royce @ 10.6p per share - Received
06 July - Tesco @ 10.13p per share - Received
31 July - General Electric @ 9.23p per share (after exchange rate and 15% tax) - Received
01 Aug - Vodafone @ 6.47p per share - Received
15 Aug - National Grid @ 25.5p per share - Received
But as these things continuously cycle forward I can already see new ex dividend entitlements in the bag from BG; BP; IG Group; and SSE.
And with my portfolio (July 2012: Portfolio update.), currently carrying a forecast yield in the region of 4% (if held for 12 months), dividends play a significant part of my strategy both as a return and for growth once re-invested.
If things run their course in a similar fashion to last year/this year (My first dividend of 2012 (and 2011 dividends in profile).), then my next big peak for dividends should come in January with National Grid and Rolls-Royce (my 2 largest portfolio holdings), paying out in the same month.
Slow and steady (but sure), progress then.
Related posts:
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
- 2012 Dividend bull period update (to the update!).
- Dividend update: ex dividends to roll in.
- My first dividend of 2012 (and 2011 dividends in profile).
So the big one dropped in yesterday, from National Grid, less than 24 hours after the company's shares hit a new 52 week closing high of 700.33p.
700.33p (Ofgem concerns to one side), still places the shares on a very attractive forward yield of 5.84%.
Anyway, this latest receipt, and the current share price of 699p, means that the company have given me gains on my investment of 46.85%, 18.06% of which is dividends.
This latest receipt also brings to a close a real bull period for dividends into my portfolio as detailed below:
01 Jun - BAE @ 11.3p per share - Received
08 Jun - William Hill @ 6.7p per share - Received
13 Jun - Centrica @ 11.11p per share - Received
14 Jun - Microsoft @ 10.97p per share (est. based on $1.5491:£1 and 15% tax) - Received
20 Jun - Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets @ 7.53p per share - Received
27 Jun - BP @ 8c per share - Received
04 July - Rolls-Royce @ 10.6p per share - Received
06 July - Tesco @ 10.13p per share - Received
31 July - General Electric @ 9.23p per share (after exchange rate and 15% tax) - Received
01 Aug - Vodafone @ 6.47p per share - Received
15 Aug - National Grid @ 25.5p per share - Received
But as these things continuously cycle forward I can already see new ex dividend entitlements in the bag from BG; BP; IG Group; and SSE.
And with my portfolio (July 2012: Portfolio update.), currently carrying a forecast yield in the region of 4% (if held for 12 months), dividends play a significant part of my strategy both as a return and for growth once re-invested.
If things run their course in a similar fashion to last year/this year (My first dividend of 2012 (and 2011 dividends in profile).), then my next big peak for dividends should come in January with National Grid and Rolls-Royce (my 2 largest portfolio holdings), paying out in the same month.
Slow and steady (but sure), progress then.
Related posts:
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
- 2012 Dividend bull period update (to the update!).
- Dividend update: ex dividends to roll in.
- My first dividend of 2012 (and 2011 dividends in profile).
Wednesday, 15 August 2012
July 2012: Portfolio update.
So July has been and gone but triggered a small outperformance by the FTSE with a gain of 1.15% v. my personal portfolio's gain of 0.82%.
However, with just a meagre 1.13% year to date you can see that the main index has only just made it back into profit for the year.
Still a little disappointing looking at my portfolio in July though particularly when there was a healthy dividend received from my largest holding Rolls-Royce which accounted for just about half of this months gains.
Anyway William Hill galloped on with a gain of 11.03% in the month backed up by some mid single digit recoveries in Aviva, Apple, BAE, and Morrisons.
But, the big news for July is that I have made a further investment in Aviva. Some might say its a gamble because of the risks associated so it will be an interesting lesson one way or another. Hopefully, the upside is now greater than the downside given the changes at the top.
Elsewhere, and slightly concerning, National Grid has been under pressure following a public (spat's probably too strong at this stage), difference of opinion with the regulator over the amount of infrastructure investment required and how this might be financed.
This has raised a small doubt over the dividend and is likely to rumble on until the end of year when a final decision is reached.
As alluded to earlier there is also a risk to Aviva's dividend following its underperformance of recent years, and EU exposure. Perversely this was further heightened by the departure of Andrew Moss and the subsequent need for strategic review and direction.
Encouragingly, as things stand the incoming Chairman, John MaFarlane (Executive until a new CEO is appointed), has completed a review and set the company on a strategy that could/should maintain the dividend by divesting underperforming divisions to achieve a better balance of capital protection/deployment.
Could and should continues to be at the whim of that big poker game going in Europe though.
Vodafone also has a slight question mark above this years dividend with the lack of news from Verizon Wireless over any special that might be paid to its 2 shareholders: Verizon Communications; and Vodafone.
As the majority shareholder Verizon Communications holds all the voting cards and comments from its CFO - Francis Shammu at a recent investor update gave little encouragement (Vodafone falls 1.16% following Shammu comments.). You could say that Shammu made a big splash with his comments!
So those are the clouds but the portfolio did record a gain of 0.82% in the month and is up a pleasing 10.68% year to date.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 19 mth | |||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |
| R-R | 875.50p | 33.00% | 2.32% | -0.87% | 13.93% | 36.52% |
| National Grid | 662.50p | 17.11% | 6.17% | -1.92% | 6.00% | 19.80% |
| Aviva | 291.60p | 10.05% | 9.06% | 5.50% | -3.52% | -13.69% |
| Apple ** | $610.58 | 5.84% | 0.30% | 4.68% | 49.50% | 84.12% |
| BP | 425.05p | 5.45% | 4.88% | 0.73% | -6.44% | -7.14% |
| William Hill | 314.00p | 3.44% | 3.46% | 11.03% | 54.83% | 83.95% |
| IG Group | 448.70p | 2.79% | 5.13% | -6.33% | -5.91% | -12.02% |
| General Electric ** | $20.75 | 2.53% | 2.71% | -0.31% | 14.89% | 35.40% |
| Centrica | 317.00p | 2.34% | 5.19% | -0.31% | 9.57% | -4.40% |
| Microsoft ** | $29.45 | 2.27% | 2.25% | -3.61% | 12.49% | 4.99% |
| BG Group | 1262.00p | 2.16% | 1.30% | -2.92% | -8.32% | -2.62% |
| SSE | 1313.00p | 2.13% | 6.41% | -5.61% | 1.70% | 7.18% |
| Vodafone | 182.60p | 2.08% | 7.15% | 1.87% | 2.07% | 13.32% |
| Morrisons | 277.30p | 2.05% | 4.25% | 4.21% | -14.99% | 3.62% |
| BAE Systems | 308.90p | 1.81% | 6.34% | 7.03% | 8.35% | -6.39% |
| Tesco | 318.10p | 1.49% | 4.79% | 2.60% | -21.16% | -20.26% |
| Cash | 3.47% | 0.00% | ||||
| 100.00% | 4.10% | |||||
| 1 Month | YTD | 19 mth | ||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Divs) | ||||||
| - 1 month gain 1547.41 - 1560.11 | 0.82% | |||||
| - YTD gain 1409.55 - 1560.11 | 10.68% | |||||
| - 19 month gain 1264.20 - 1560.11 | 23.41% | |||||
| - 31 month gain 1000.00 - 1560.11 | 56.01% | |||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||
| - 1 month gain 5571.15 - 5635.28 | 1.15% | |||||
| - YTD gain 5572.28 - 5635.28 | 1.13% | |||||
| - 19 month gain 5971.01 - 5635.28 | -5.62% | |||||
| - 31 month gain 5412.88 - 5635.28 | 4.11% | |||||
| Transactions: | ||||||
| 04/07/2012 | Div | R-R @ 10.6p | ||||
| Buy | Aviva @ 2.898p ea. | |||||
| 08/07/2012 | Div | Tesco @10.13p | ||||
| 31/07/2012 | Div | GE @ 14.47c | ||||
| Notes: | ||||||
| * US Dividends adjusted for exch. rate and 15% tax. | ||||||
| ** £ : $ exchange rate = £1: $1.5669 as at 31/07/12 | ||||||
The chart still looks pretty good as my portfolio, the Merchant Adventurer's Index, just manages to eke out a little extra performance over time particularly as all dividends are re-invested.
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
Looking ahead though, my portfolio's biggest dividend, the 2012 Final dividend from National Grid, is due to drop in very soon (15 August, tomorrow in fact), which should enhance August's performance (2012 Dividend bull period update (to the update!).).
But, it maybe that I am due a period of underperformance in the run to the year-end as some of the more volatile, and affected sectors of the FTSE100 bounce.
In particular, I'm thinking Mining, and Banking, should there be any stabilising of confidence in global growth, and in the EU to resolve its problems, or at the very least for the EU to remove some uncertainty over its future viability.
August is already underway and the FTSE 100 is already looking healthier despite confidence being low.
Still likely to be testy and volatile for the foreseeable though but fingers crossed that financial disaster can be averted or at least managed.
Related posts:
- Vodafone falls 1.16% following Shammu comments.
- 2012 Dividend bull period update (to the update!).
Links to Portfolio updates:
- June 2012: Portfolio Update.
- May 2012: Portfolio Update.
- April 2012: Portfolio Update.
- March 2012: Portfolio Update.
- February 2012: Portfolio Update.
- January 2012: Portfolio Update.
- December 2011: Portfolio Update.
Tuesday, 14 August 2012
July 2012: Following Woodford update.
OK so lets take a quick monthly look at the 3 ways to follow Woodford strategy, or the Woodford way, as I think of it.
Just to remind you that this is an experiment, so the holdings are virtual, although I have previously held the Invesco Fund (New Trial Investment Strategy: 3 ways to follow Neil Woodford!), and I currently own Vodafone in my personal portfolio (June 2012: Portfolio Update.).
Interesting to see that the flagship Invesco Perpetual High Income Fund has slipped to the back of the 3 following the receipt of dividends into the other 2 options.
A healthy £82.74 has been received into the Edinburgh Investment Trust which is enough to claw it above the Invesco fund.
Remember that both the Fund and the Trust are operated by Invesco and that the renowned Neil Woodford manages both.
And, whilst the Edinburgh option appears to be slightly cheaper in terms of charges it could be said to carry more risk due to the options available to the Trust to leverage its assets ie. borrow to invest.
Ultimately this could give it more upside, as well as downside, than the unleveraged Invesco Fund.
As for the 3 picks option (picked from the 3 highest weighted sectors represented in the High Income Fund's top ten holdings), a dividend of £23.46 (distributed quarterly), was received from Glaxo, and a further dividend from Vodafone will drop in on the 1st August.
| Shares | 31.07.12 | Value | % Perf | |||
| Inv. Perp. High Income | 1110.14 | 5.51 | 6121.45 | 2.02% | ||
| Residue | 0.00 | |||||
| Dividends | ||||||
| Total | 6000 | 6121.45 | 2.02% | |||
| Edinburgh Investment Trust | 1182.00 | 5.13 | 6063.66 | 1.06% | ||
| Residue | 0.43 | |||||
| Dividends | 141.84 | |||||
| Total | 6000 | 6205.93 | 3.43% | |||
| 3 Picks | ||||||
| BAT | 61.00 | 33.98 | 2072.48 | 3.62% | ||
| Glaxo | 138.00 | 14.69 | 2026.53 | 1.33% | ||
| Vodafone | 1191.00 | 1.83 | 2174.77 | 8.74% | ||
| Residue | 3.68 | |||||
| Dividends | 23.46 | |||||
| Total | 6000 | 6300.92 | 5.02% | |||
| Transactions: | ||||||
| Invesco Perp. High Income | N/A | |||||
| Edin. Inv. Trust | 31/07/12 | Div | 82.74 | |||
| 3 Picks | ||||||
| Glaxo | 25/07/12 | Div | 23.46 | |||
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
So the 3 picks option remains out in front.
It is probably still the riskiest option as it is the least diversified. And would be the costliest to set up with 3 sets of dealing charges and stamp duty.
Although eventually I would think that the charges might even out, or even prove favourable given time and the drip, drip of annual management fees applied to the fund and trust.
There is also a little more self management required to keep an eye on things.
But after 5.5 months it is comfortably infront despite the slight headstart given to the other 2 options.
Interestingly, none of the 3 picks are currently the largest holdings of their represented peer sectors in the High Income Fund which are currently AstraZeneca (pharmaceuticals), Reynolds (tobacco), and BT (telecoms).
Its been a bit of a sideways trading market since I started the experiment on the 14 March with the FTSE 100 currently down from the 5945.43 that it closed out at on that date.
Turning the clock forward to the end of July, the FTSE 100 closed at 5635.28 which represents a fall of -5.22% over the same (very short!), 5.5 month period of the experiment.
So as well as registering a positive performance in a short space of time, all 3 options have also comfortably outperformed the FTSE 100.
You could also compare their performance (as they are net of charges), with any current savings account remembering, of course, that this is only 5.5 months in and the the risk/reward balance of each product/options
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