Monday 7 February 2011

Week ahead: BP ex dividend; RR Final results; Interest rates

BP @ 482.15p, +5.9 (+1.24%). On Wednesday (9th February), BP begins to trade without the entitlement to its recently re-instated dividend (ex-dividend), so all things being equal the value of the dividend will come off the share price at the start of trading. 
The announced dividend for the quarter is 7 cents per share which, at an exchange rate of $1.6169 equates to around 4.3p. Depending on market sentiment on the day (and how many investors bail out after receiving the entitlement), the shares could lose more, or less than this, a situation that can sometimes yield a buying opportunity as trading is concentrated potentially resulting in an oversold situation.
There is generally a pattern of gains in a share price ahead of a dividend entitlement as investors buy in for the rights but I am not sure you ever truly gain from such a short term view so prefer to see the dips as an opportunity for the longer term. But I don't think I will be adding to my BP holding at this point.

I would just like a period of calm around BP's shares as it seems to be a company that cannot keep out of the news. Which would be fine if it was all good news but the company seems to court political controversy at every turn. At times this tip toeing through the minefields seems more risky than actually exploring and extracting oil, as everybody seems to want to score points.

Rolls-Royce @ 642.5p, -1 (-0.16%), reports final results on Thursday (10th Feb), so it is fingers crossed for no unpleasant surprises and positive updates on the aerospace cycle, and Quantas T900 resolution.
Remember, these will be the last results with Sir John Rose at the helm so, rightly or wrongly, I am hopeful that there will be plenty of positivity about the future built upon the foundations of a strong, clear, proven strategy.

It may be that reception to R-R results will initially be subdued given the wait (until Thursday lunchtime), for the Bank of England's decision on interest rates which, could be interesting given the news, data, and opinions swirling around.

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