Tuesday 3 July 2012

June 2012: Following Woodford Update.

Well I have to say that you need to be quick to make sure you get a price (for a particular date), with the Invesco High Income fund. 
On Digitallook it seems to go through some kind of weekly milestone then shows a variance to that date as a change in pence rather than a day by day change. 
Coupled with that, the historic chart data shows as a percentage change with your only fixed point being the current price, or static charts that are too small to see enough detail.

Anyway that annoyance to one side. What does June look like in my fledgling experiment.

Well the turnaround in fortunes that started in April already seems well established with the 3 picks, now the first of the 3 options to show a profit, of £112.73 (1.88%), against the original investment of £6000.
The Invesco fund is comfortably second having lost £74.05 (-1.23%) but the Edinburgh Investment Trust is starting to close the gap with a loss of £167.58 (-2.79%).

Worth remembering is the fact that the 3 picks and the Investment Trust have all taken an upfront hit from dealing charges (3 off in the case of the 3 picks) whereas for this simulation I have assumed the ability to purchase the Invesco Fund at 0%, and partial units, as per many fund supermarkets (New Trial Investment Strategy: 3 ways to follow Neil Woodford!).

So despite this the, albeit riskier, 3 picks has turned around that early impediment to take the lead.

As at the end of May the 3 picks continue to be in the top 10 holdings (so no changes required) with Vodafone proving the most buoyant having risen 6.74% since the start 14 March start date, as it begins to close out the successful purchase of CWW.

The 3 picks option is also due to receive its first dividend on the 5th July as Glaxo's Q1 dividend becomes payable.

Shares30.06.12£Value %Perf. 
Inv. Perp. High Income1110.145.345925.95-1.23%
Residue0.00
Dividends
Total60005925.95-1.23%
Edinburgh Investment Trust1182.004.885772.89-3.79%
Residue0.43
Dividends59.10
Total60005832.42-2.79%
3 Picks
BAT61.0032.421977.32-1.13%
Glaxo138.0014.471996.86-0.16%
Vodafone1191.001.792134.876.74%
Residue3.68
Dividends
Total60006112.731.88%


Visually the chart is as follows:



Click to enlarge, close to return.


Difficult to see whether or not this trend will continue and clearly holding just 3 shares has a higher level of risk than the other 2 options with its lack of diversification.

And, both the Fund and the Investment Trust have a higher level of proven risk management associated with them (diversification, size, research) hence, in the case of the High Income Fund, the long term success and hugely regarded reputation of its manager, Neil Woodford.

Clearly his management of the Investment Trust (also owned by Invesco), follows many of the same principles and philosophies but carries more risk due to its ability to raise and leverage debt rather than be limited to investor's funds. This should give it a distinct advantage in a buoyant market but, on the flipside, carries more downside risk in volatile markets.

Interesting though.


For clarity, this is an experimental portfolio so, with the exception of Vodafone (June 2012: Portfolio Update.), I hold none of the shares involved.





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