Sunday, 2 September 2012

August 2012: Portfolio update.

Well its time to review things again which seems to have come around even quicker than usual due to the formatting/HTML issues which delayed my posting last month and which, thankfully Google (presumably), seem to have resolved.

My portfolio had a better  time of things last month with a gain of 2.11% v. the FTSE100's 1.35%. 
At one stage it even managed to hit an all time high with a mid month gain of around 4.9% but as with the FTSE it couldn't hold onto those speculation driven gains.

But following great expectation on my part (2012 Dividend bull period update to the update (to the update!) etc. etc.), the big one finally landed in the form of National Grid's 2012 Final dividend which contributed 0.65% towards last months gains.
Another big yield but with less of a weighting in my portfolio (unfortunately), came from Vodafone which also paid out on its 2012 Final dividend.
And finally, more like the novelty of a new toy than a reward at this stage, there was a first dividend from Apple which coincided with new all time highs for the stock (Apple valued at $623bn and returns to dividend payments.)

All told dividends contributed a satisfying 0.74% to this months gain (i.e. 0.74% in dividends and 1.37% in share price gains).

Completing the picture of transactions in August, I also made a further purchase and topped up my holding in IG Group on the basis of the strong financial base from which the company appears to be managed, its niche leadership, prospects for a recovery, and a 5% yield.

Looking across my portfolio, the months biggest share price gain came from a recently topped up holding in Aviva as speculation around the sale of its US operations continue which along with the fortunes of the EU look set to dictate the fortunes of this share for some time yet. Aviva shares rose 11.83% in August.

I have already mentioned Apple hitting all time highs. But, elsewhere the only other share price gains of note came from Centrica and a possibly bottomed out Tesco.

As things stand, Tesco remains the laggard of the portfolio, but at least there does look to be quietly building support in the shares although analysts are suggesting that the upcoming trading statement will likely still be weak.

Across the portfolio, the top-up/addition of IG and an update of consensus forecasts suggests a current view that my portfolio could yield 4.11% if held for the next 12 months.

Merchant Adventurer's Portfolio
Forecast 1 month YTD 20 mth
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
R-R 875.50p 31.20% 2.39% -3.47% 9.98% 31.78%
National Grid 683.50p 17.29% 5.98% 3.17% 9.36% 23.60%
Aviva 326.10p 11.01% 8.08% 11.83% 7.90% -3.48%
Apple ** $664.95 6.14% 0.28% 7.51% 60.72% 97.94%
BP 441.35p 5.54% 4.63% 3.83% -2.86% -3.58%
IG Group 430.50p 4.45% 5.35% -2.41% -5.95% -9.79%
William Hill 300.30p 3.22% 3.64% -4.36% 48.08% 75.92%
General Electric ** $20.71 2.44% 2.70% -1.48% 13.19% 33.40%
Centrica 326.70p 2.36% 5.02% 6.04% 12.93% -1.48%
Microsoft ** $30.81 2.30% 2.33% -0.37% 16.18% 8.43%
BG Group 1288.00p 2.16% 1.27% 3.77% -6.43% -0.62%
Vodafone 181.50p 2.02% 7.17% -0.60% 1.45% 12.64%
SSE 1368.00p 2.17% 6.16% 2.48% 5.96% 11.67%
Morrisons 280.00p 2.03% 4.21% 0.97% -14.16% 4.63%
BAE Systems 318.50p 1.83% 6.14% 3.11% 11.72% -3.48%
Tesco 336.60p 1.55% 4.48% 5.82% -16.57% -15.62%
Cash 2.31% 0.00%
100.00% 4.11%
1 Month YTD 20 mth
Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1560.11 -  1593.09 2.11%
- YTD gain         1409.55 - 1593.09 13.02%
- 20 month gain 1264.20 - 1593.09 26.02%
- 32 month gain 1000.00 - 1593.09 59.31%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   5635.28 - 5711.48 1.35%
- YTD gain         5572.28 - 5711.48 2.50%
- 20 month gain 5971.01 - 5711.48 -4.35%
- 32 month gain 5412.88 - 5711.48 5.52%
Vodafone @ 6.47p per share
National Grid @ 23.47p per share
Apple @ £1.4338 per share (est)
IG Group @ 425.45p
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.587 as at 31/08/12

The usual chart continues to show a pleasing long term divergence between the FTSE 100 and my own portfolio's performance (thankfully in my portfolio's favour), whilst also illustrating that the 2 indexes continue to follow a similar profile.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

Looking ahead, the weather forecast remains the same with any sustained recovery remaining hugely dependent on a managed outcome of the EU/Euro fiasco. A further update is expected next week.
Having sought to slow down its economy, China is now looking to stimulate it again in the hope of insulating itself from the worst of European recession.

And, in the run to the year-end, the US could also shoulder its way into the mix with the country's own fiscal concerns and the upcoming Presidential election which looks likely to be waged on the economy.

We are also entering the last quarter of the year so might yet look forward to a year-end rally and with another month consigned to the history books must surely be moving towards an outcome and a post credit crunch future.

Looking at my little portfolio, 13.02% year to date is very satisfying and with a little cash left, I might yet add to my portfolio before the year-end.

Earlier posts:
2012 Dividend bull period update to the update (to the update!) etc. etc.
Apple valued at $623bn and returns to dividend payments.

Links to Portfolio updates:
July 2012: Portfolio update.
June 2012: Portfolio Update.
May 2012: Portfolio Update.
April 2012: Portfolio Update. 
March 2012: Portfolio Update. 
February 2012: Portfolio Update. 
January 2012: Portfolio Update. 
December 2011: Portfolio Update.  

No comments:

Post a Comment