Monday 1 October 2012

September 2012: "following Woodford" update.

So what's happening in my 3 ways to follow Woodford experiment?
Well despite a dividend of £25.74 coming in from BAT this month, the 3 picks option (British American Tobacco, GlaxoSmithKline, and Vodafone), took a notable stumble to slip back into last place as the combination of company concerns and investors' risk aversion temporarily switched off following the actions of various central banks notably the ECB and the US Federal Reserve.

However, not quite as expected the new leader of the pack is now the Edinburgh Investment Trust, rather than the High Income. 
The Edinburgh Investment Trust (also managed by Neil Woodford), was, like the 3 picks option, also launched into this fray with the slight disadvantage of an upfront dealing charge.

All 3 "ways to follow Woodford" continue to show gains (net of current charges), after 6.5 months though.
In contrast the FTSE100 is down -3.42% over the same period (5945.43 - 5742.07).

Company specific fears appear to be impacting BAT with plain packaging in Australia, then a ban on smoking in public spaces being introduced in Russia (one of the company's biggest markets).
But it remains to be seen how this might materially impact the industry's revenues. 
Opinions abound as to the actual impact on UK and Irish markets for instance.

Vodafone also continues to run with some uncertainty over its long running debate with the Indian Government over legacy tax arising from past acquisitions, and the extending uncertainty over the regularity of a dividend from its significant, but minority control, investment in Verizon Wireless.

After a good run over the last 12 months (as with all 3 I'd say), Glaxo is also suffering from a little more uncertainty over future earnings growth. The company also suffered a record $3bn fine in July for mis-promotion of some of its prescription products in US markets during 1998 - 2007.

With all 3 also being viewed as "defensive" the current market churn into and out of mining and other perceived growth shares has also reduced enthusiasm for the 3 picks and their peers.

But all 3 picks continue to be part of the High Income Fund's top 10 although Vodafone has slipped to 10th in the list which raises an interesting question should it drop out of the top 10.
Being honest any of these 3 dropping out of the top 10 is not something that I have had to fully consider yet so will need watching carefully.


QtyPrice£Value%Gain
Inv. Perp. High Income1110.145.586196.273.27%
Residue0.00
Dividends
Total
6000
6196.273.27%
Edinburgh Investment Trust1182.005.176110.941.85%
Residue0.43
Dividends167.58
Total
6000
6278.954.65%
3 Picks
BAT61.0031.801939.50-3.03%
Glaxo138.0014.281969.95-1.50%
Vodafone1191.001.762093.184.66%
Residue3.68
Dividends100.52
Total60006106.831.78%



Transactions in the month:
Invesco Perp. High Income
Edinburgh Inv. Trust
N/A
N/A
3 Picks
BATS26/09/2012Div25.74


Monthly Chart:-

Click to enlarge, close to return

We shall have to see what October brings.


Note: Unlike my Portfolio updates (Portfolio Updates.) which reflects an actual investment portfolio, following Woodford is an experimental strategy and a virtual portfolio.
However, I do hold an investment in Vodafone.


Related article links:
http://www.invescoperpetual.co.uk/portal/site/ip/products/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk: US fines Glaxo record $3bn for mis-promoting drugs


Earlier related posts:

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