Wednesday 25 September 2013

Royal Mail IPO: first class or second class!

Well I had made my mind up not to be involved with the upcoming Royal Mail IPO on the basis that it appears to be an unwieldy business with significant hurdles to address in terms of inefficiencies, the lack of assets, and increasing competition.
The fact that it can be difficult to forecast when a letter will be delivered  i.e 1st class v. 2nd class v. reducing services doesn't really suggest a reliable service reputation.
Throw in a pensions black hole, and union activity and it would seem to be a task where the company has not found a financial equilibrium to stand on its own two feet yet, and not all stakeholders are pulling in the same direction.

But, then little doubts start sneaking in, such as: the pensions black hole being taken on by the government/tax payers, the parcel delivery business being the company's big opportunity, a seemingly well thought of CEO with a sense of what it might take to be competitive and the chance of a high payout ratio dividend.

Lastly could the advisors really know enough (or not), to price the IPO at an attractive level.

Whilst there is increasing competition, I assume the Royal Mail retains some protection of its delivery infrastructure in the form of licenses.

So whilst it might seem that there could be a short term opportunity (if priced to sell), and a long term carrot of a good ratio of dividend payouts, I'm struggling to be excited about its prospects at this stage.
The big opportunity being touted is the parcel delivery side of the business, given the rise in internet shopping, and it may be that the Royal Mail needs to compete for these contracts as well. 
I notice that Amazon now delivers for M & S Outlets, and very efficiently too.

I hope that employees do take up the issue and keep them, as shared ownership starts an important step towards the sharing of goals as well as profits. 
As long as excessive executive remuneration does not derail this of course.
But, for a business which appears to be so reliant on its staff numbers, perhaps a co-operative type of structure would serve better than either public or private ownership. Unfortunately, this would require a management/employee buyout.

Longer term, I guess that if some of the issues can be ironed out, and the Royal Mail can maintain its relevance as a utility-like delivery infrastructure, then it could become an attractive takeover proposition, but I'm not sure if I am ready to invest in the IPO beyond a little flutter, and I'm not sure if I will do that, so will probably be a vaguely interested bystander.

I also wonder how long it will be before the company drops its Royal Mail title for RM, or RMail or something else?

Related article links:
https://royalmailshares.service.gov.uk: About the Royal Mail Share Offer
http://www.moneyobserver.com: Royal Mail IPO could be over-subscribed
http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk: Royal Mail IPO: The essential details

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