Well January 2014 didn't have anywhere near as much momentum as January 2013!
More like a cold shower on my portfolio with a 1 month drop of -4.61% with profits warnings, disappointment, and negative sentiment stalking the markets.
-4.61% was worse than the FTSE100's -3.54%, showing a concentration of negativity around my less diversified portfolio.
This despite the fact that January is amongst my best months for receipting dividends with the latest interim payments from Rolls-Royce and National Grid being gratefully received.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 37 mth | |||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||
| R-R | 1187.00p | 31.95% | 1.96% | -6.90% | -6.90% | 90.53% | ||
| National Grid | 789.00p | 14.13% | 5.38% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 42.68% | ||
| Aviva | 445.00p | 10.64% | 3.61% | -1.05% | -1.05% | 31.71% | ||
| BP | 478.00p | 5.66% | 5.05% | -2.06% | -2.06% | 5.52% | ||
| Apple ** | $500.60 | 5.54% | 2.20% | -10.39% | -10.39% | 19.48% | ||
| Vodafone | 227.00p | 4.64% | 4.82% | -4.22% | -4.22% | 19.91% | ||
| IG Group | 626.00p | 4.58% | 3.78% | 1.62% | 1.62% | 31.18% | ||
| William Hill | 332.00p | 3.08% | 3.82% | -17.39% | -17.39% | 80.26% | ||
| Imperial Tobacco | 2223.00p | 2.54% | 5.72% | -4.92% | -4.92% | -1.60% | ||
| BAT | 2916.00p | 2.25% | 5.05% | -9.94% | -9.94% | -13.07% | ||
| General Electric ** | $25.13 | 2.02% | 2.62% | -9.95% | -9.95% | 56.29% | ||
| Microsoft ** | $37.84 | 1.93% | 2.35% | 1.54% | 1.54% | 28.57% | ||
| BAE Systems | 429.00p | 1.74% | 4.80% | -1.38% | -1.38% | 30.00% | ||
| Centrica | 311.00p | 1.59% | 5.68% | -10.56% | -10.56% | -6.21% | ||
| SSE | 1307.00p | 1.47% | 6.71% | -4.60% | -4.60% | 6.69% | ||
| Morrisons | 240.00p | 1.23% | 5.36% | -8.05% | -8.05% | -10.31% | ||
| BG Group | 1022.00p | 1.21% | 1.81% | -21.23% | -21.23% | -21.14% | ||
| Tesco | 320.00p | 1.04% | 4.61% | -4.29% | -4.29% | -19.78% | ||
| Cash | 2.75% | 0.00% | ||||||
| 100.00% | 3.46% | |||||||
| 1 Month | YTD | 37 mth | ||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 2139.28 - | 2040.58 | -4.61% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 1644.62 - | 2040.58 | -4.61% | ||||||
| - 37 month gain 1264.20 - | 2040.58 | 61.41% | ||||||
| - 49 month gain 1000.00 - | 2040.58 | 104.06% | ||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 6749.09 - | 6510.44 | -3.54% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 5897.81 - | 6510.44 | -3.54% | ||||||
| - 37 month gain 5971.01 - | 6510.44 | 9.03% | ||||||
| - 49 month gain 5412.88 - | 6510.44 | 20.28% | ||||||
Transactions:
| ||||||||
06/01/2014
|
Div
|
Rolls-Royce @ 8.6p per share
| ||||||
22/01/2014
|
Div
|
National Grid @ 14.49p per share
| ||||||
29/01/2014
|
Div
|
GE @ 22c per share
| ||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | ||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.644 as at 31/01/14 | ||||||||
Chart wise the long term trend is still very positive but its starting to look like a trading channel of highs and lows (thankfully still higher highs and lows), has been developing since April 2013 for my portfolio and possibly earlier than that for the FTSE100.
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
Looking ahead it now seems certain that the mainstays of the supermarket sector are entering an extended period of under-performance as the lower and upper segments of that sector enjoy a positive boost and put a squeeze on the "big four".
Disappointingly this leaves me with a quandary over my 2 sector holdings: Morrison and Tesco.
I have voiced my concerns over Morrison a number of times as it just does not feel that management have a strategic clue. They seem to have responded to city views on what should be done rather than devise a strategy based upon their " expertise and knowledge".
Which puts a question mark over their capability for me, are they expert grocers, or at very least retailers.
The current strategy still has roots to the previous CEO, Marc Bolland who quickly took advantage of a positive reception, to satisfy his own career ambitions and jump into the hot seat at M & S.
Having failed to execute one strategy, he isn't exactly shining at M & S!
So my two supermarkets along with one or two others in my portfolio will need a good looking in the next few months, in order to determine if they still warrant a place and my patience.
But, on the other hand its nice to see that some holdings, such as Aviva, have started to reward my patience despite the painful dividend cut that caught me out last year.
Roll on February (and yes, I know....more bad news!)
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