Tuesday 3 May 2011

April 2011: Portfolio Update

Well, thats April been and gone. At least managing to end on a bright sunny note (weather wise) allowing the UK to enjoy the flurry of Bank Holidays over the last 3 weeks. 
Oh, and there was a Royal wedding which will ensure that the 29 April 2011 will mark a significant point in the history books.

The Virtual Portfolio (Merchant Adventurers Index) did OK as well with a monthly gain of 2.66% closely followed by the FTSE100 with 2.57%. 
William Hill provided the star turn with a gallop of 23.69% in the month as it reported increased sales and profits in the first quarter despite a challenging consumer environment; and unveiled 2 acquisitions in the US (a 3rd was announced today), as part of its plan to establish a foothold in the US sports betting market.


And, by virtue of their proportion in the portfolio, the average 3.43% gains across: R-R; National Grid; and Invesco Perpetual; probably had the most influence on the overall gain for April.


The dollar also weakened by 3.6% to $1.66648 which had a small impact on my holdings in Apple; Microsoft; and Cisco but my feelings are that the individual fortunes of the 3 (positive and negative) are having a bigger impact on their respective valuations than the exchange rate (which is as it should be).

The Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD 16 Months
% holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
R-R 29.32% 2.69%
3.63%
2.97%
32.68%
National Grid
18.68%
5.95%
3.37%
11.03%
13.13%
Inv. Perp. High Inc.
6.99%
0.00%
3.30%
4.65%
17.27%
Aviva
5.25%
6.05%
-4.20%
13.69%
19.00%
BP
4.68%
3.79%
1.88%
-0.65%
6.26%
Apple
3.71%
0.00%
-3.08%
1.59%
73.38%
IG Group
3.42%
4.18%
2.28%
-8.43%
55.22%
BG Group
3.09%
0.96%
-1.13%
18.33%
40.68%
Centrica
2.78%
4.69%
-1.35%
-3.23%
1.61%
William Hill
2.88%
3.90%
23.69%
30.93%
30.71%
Morrisons
2.57%
3.62%
6.81%
10.16%
16.51%
Scottish and Southern
2.59%
5.46%
7.69%
10.86%
17.99%
Microsoft
2.21%
2.19%
-1.55%
-13.15%
0.74%
BAE Systems
2.26%
5.61%
0.92%
-0.64%
2.71%
Tesco
2.23%
3.56%
5.92%
1.16%
1.16%
Cisco
1.75%
0.00%
-1.45%
-18.95%
-20.47%
Cash
5.60%
0.00%
0.09%
1.19%
100.00% 3.30%
1 Month YTD 16 Months
Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends) 2.66% 4.78% 32.47%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) 2.57% 1.66% 12.14%
- 1 month gain   5917.76 - 6069.90
- YTD gain         5971.01 - 6069.90
- 16 month gain 5412.88 - 6069.90
Transactions:
28/04/2011 Dividends Cisco @ 12 cents per share
Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.66648 as at 29/04/11

The only dividend received in the month came from Cisco, totally out of the blue but certainly doesn't warrant any excitement.
However, there are a number of companies in the pipeline due to payout having gone ex dividend in the last few months. The list includes: 


Aviva - payable 17 May; 
BAE - payable 1 June; 
Centrica - payable 15 June; 
BG Group - payable 20 May; 
R-R  - payable 5 July; 
Tesco - payable 8 July; 
William Hill - payable 9 June


In addition, the following are due to go ex dividend in May:


BP xd 11 May;
Morrisons xd 11 May
Microsoft xd 17 May


The relative performance of the Portfolio v. the FTSE 100 is as shown:
Relative performance v. FTSE 100 (double click to enlarge, back to return).
So with a YTD gain of 4.78% v. the FTSE100's gain of 1.66%, the portfolio is still managing to outperform the FTSE by a useful amount.
Again, I caution that the portfolio's performance includes re-invested dividends but the FTSE 100 doesn't. But, at least this continues to be a useful exercise highlighting the contribution of dividends to overall performance.
And, as mentioned earlier, I can look forward to more dividends coming into the portfolio over the next few months which might just be all the gains to be made over the next 6 months as Markets seemingly wind down for the summer.
Its something that I have never been able to rationalise but is seemingly captured by the adage "Sell in May and go away, don't come back until St.Legers day" and, unless something major events occurs, markets traditionally do seem to be directionless until the last quarter of the year.


Flip a coin and see which way you think markets will go over the summer months.


Links to previous Portfolio updates:
March 2011: Portfolio update.

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