Thursday 24 November 2011

Achtung: Risk of Euro contagion

Well thats put the cat amongst the pigeons and might just be enough to wrestle Germany from the torpor of its perceived protective bubble.
The richest, most secure (and probably best managed) of the EC's member states (it recently found 25bn it didn't know it had) has just had a pretty disastrous bond sale to the point where it was pulled with a little over half of the targeted 6bn raised.
Despite Angela Merkel's star turn managing the EU summit, and a show of European solidarity, the German state has stuck to its guns on the ECB and related options because it felt secure in its own financial strength, which it does seem to have, and saw an opportunity to push its own European agenda but, such is the current escalation of concern it looks like all things Euro are in danger of being shunned.
On a point by point basis I actually agree with most of Germany's stance and the risk of inflation but unfortunately, I can't help thinking that like every other politician involved here they are on too much of a voyage of self interest rather than seeing what is right in front of them.
I think the EC as a whole has squandered more time and opportunities than I think were actually available so, hopefully, this bond sale (or lack of) might just provide the wake up call to Germany that the contagion risk is a real one.
Although, it has to be said that the yield on offer, at 2.07% on 10 yrs, does not yet raise alarm bells.
With the possible future of the EC and the Euro at risk it really must be time to step up to the plate and show genuine purpose and desire to rescue it, or not!
The desire for closer fiscal union must also require the ECB to have a greater remit and range of regulatory powers than the fairly toothless symbol of EC bureacracy and vantity that it currently is.
So whilst I don't necessarily think that a program of quantitative easing or eurobonds is the right solution, I am not sure that there are any remaining options.

In my view it really is an all for one and one for all moment.

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