Apple: The Morning After a Night on the Cider!

Well its the morning after the night before and despite being a bit punch drunk (Apple reports record numbers and tanks another 10% in after hours!), I can vaguely see my portfolio is at an all time high (December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).)...except that..... Apple is still showing at its publicly traded closing price of $514 when I know full well that in "after hours" trading the stock closed at $463.78, -$50.225 (-9.77%).

Which basically means that I am due a drop at 3pm gmt once US markets open and given the speculation over Apple weightings on US indices, where Apple represents more than 3% of the S&P 500 and more than 10% of the NASDAQ 100, there could be a wider impact on local and global indices.

Valuation wise Apple's share price is now rated at under 10 times (Apple shares: For a Few Dollars More!), based on its 2013 forecast earnings and that's before cash balances are discounted. 

And, although any further cuts to analysts forecasts could push this back above 10, the shares continue to look abnormally cheap given the "absolute" profits being made.

But thats just my opinion and obviously not the consensus given the stocks falls.

It does seem to have got into the psyche though as I stumbled upon a preview of Apple earnings on Uswitch of all sites, as well as hearing Steve Wright in the afternoon mention recent falls on his Radio 2 show.

Its totally thrown my investment compass off though as I thought that satisfying customers and making profits was the order of the day. A few percentage points of growth/margin are surely secondary to making $13bn of profits quarter on quarter.

If Google or Samsung sell just 1 tablet/smartphone then this is going to eat into so called market share! 

But it is a growing market so increasing sales but losing market share seems an obvious fall out from such rapidly expanding markets.

It wouldn't be healthy for a single company to have 100% market share even if it was possible to maintain 100% production capacity to meet that demand.

Seems certain that it is "currently" in someone's interests for Apple shares to be falling so someone is making money and  its probably in much the same way that pressure was applied to the European sovereign states anticipated debt problems.

On top of that there also seems to be a lot of negativity to Apple in general with many commentators jumping on board to call time on Apple.

I was hoping that the consensus tide might start to turn with the results but it hasn't. 

But, I can only see that it will at some stage as the swell builds again but where the floor might be remains to be seen.

Fingers still in teeth!

Earlier related posts:

- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).

- Apple reports record numbers and tanks another 10% in after hours!

- Apple shares: For a Few Dollars More!