But in the meantime my portfolio has managed to look out for itself and advanced 4.70% in the month and managing to overturn January's under-performance relative to the FTSE100.
Year to date then the portfolio is currently up 8.5% v. the FTSE100's 7.72%.
Some big gains all round in Feb but by virtue of its 34.87% weighting Rolls-Royce's 8.67% gain has contributed the most following record results.
Additional bounces from IG Group, General Electric, BG Group, Microsoft, National Grid, William Hill, and BAE have also contributed nicely along with dividends received from GE, Vodafone, IG, and Apple.
Rolls-Royce's record results have continued to push the company higher and the price now seems to include a small premium but it has traded higher (relatively), and I continue to be believe in the long term nature of Aerospace although there is still some uncertainty specific to R-R following recent revelations of agent fees etc.
William Hill also continues to stride forward with a recently announced move to exercise its option to buy out the outstanding stake in its online venture. I've read somewhere that this will be partially funded by a rights issue which I will have to judge once details are announced.
I've previously mentioned concerns about the recent increase in acquisitions and the effect that this might have on the balance sheet but, while it will alleviate some of the burden I would have preferred the company to manage its ambitions within the manageable constraints of its own balance sheet and cashflow.
Its also pleasing to see Tesco's share price start to show some life again after a year in the doldrums.
BP's legal problems following the Gulf of Mexico disaster continue to move ever closer to a conclusion with court cases about to start.
National Grid has bounced on news that it has agreed conditions with the regulator which should take away some uncertainty over its cashflow.
Apple continues to lurch downwards though with little real justification (at these levels), other than pure weight of influence and negative sentiment towards the company, but can anyone safely assume that Apple will not continue to grow sales, which seems to be the primary concern, and maintain a market leading profit margin which seems to be the secondary concern.
The company's only real competitor at this point, Samsung, is growing smartphone sales and profits but these must be heavily diluted given its dominant position in the traditionally low margin TV market and other consumer electronics.
And, despite the continued development of the Android operating system, it still seems to be a disparate market with neither the software developer or the hardware manufacturers having total control over the appearance and usability of Android.
The patchy performance of individual manufacturers such as HTC, and Sony, only adds further to the disparate sum of parts.
Along with Samsung's success with the Galaxy, the Google branded tablet from ASUS, the Nexus, is also gaining some popularity due to its keen pricing and performance.
But, these matched battles aside, it still doesn't seem like an Android v IOS battle out there, more an Apple v Samsung, or Nexus v. iPad.
Back to the portfolio then and I am much happier about February's performance, and the year to date position, than I was in January.
8.5% in 12 months would be pleasing in itself, and whilst there is a long way to go in 2013, and beyond, 8.5% in 2 months is hugely satisfying.
11% from this point (say by the end of this year), will see my portfolio achieve a 100% gain in 4 years, woo hoo!
But a lot can and will happen between now and then.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 26 mth | |||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||
| R-R | 1028.00p | 34.87% | 1.92% | 8.67% | 17.69% | 65.01% | ||
| National Grid | 729.50p | 16.47% | 5.61% | 5.50% | 3.77% | 31.92% | ||
| Aviva | 356.80p | 10.75% | 7.24% | -2.70% | -4.34% | 5.60% | ||
| BP | 445.70p | 5.00% | 5.09% | -4.51% | 4.92% | -2.62% | ||
| Apple ** | $441.40 | 5.24% | 1.76% | 1.17% | -11.68% | 19.51% | ||
| IG Group | 493.20p | 4.55% | 4.45% | 10.58% | 9.60% | 3.35% | ||
| William Hill | 404.70p | 3.87% | 2.81% | 5.36% | 16.26% | 137.08% | ||
| General Electric ** | $23.22 | 2.56% | 2.54% | 8.93% | 17.98% | 56.57% | ||
| Centrica | 352.11p | 2.27% | 4.65% | 0.55% | 5.55% | 6.19% | ||
| SSE | 1446.00p | 2.05% | 5.83% | 1.90% | 1.97% | 18.04% | ||
| Microsoft ** | $27.80 | 1.94% | 2.76% | 5.82% | 10.92% | 2.41% | ||
| BAE Systems | 355.10p | 1.82% | 5.52% | 4.56% | 5.40% | 7.61% | ||
| Vodafone | 165.55p | 1.65% | 6.26% | -3.81% | 7.19% | 2.74% | ||
| BG Group | 1165.50p | 1.75% | 1.51% | 4.06% | 15.11% | -10.07% | ||
| Morrisons | 259.60p | 1.68% | 4.52% | 3.43% | -1.29% | -2.99% | ||
| Tesco | 369.60p | 1.52% | 4.02% | 3.73% | 10.00% | -7.35% | ||
| Cash | 2.02% | 0.00% | ||||||
100.00%
|
3.74%
| |||||||
1 Month
|
YTD
|
26 mth
| ||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Divs) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 1704.36 - | 1784.42 |
4.70%
| ||||||
| - YTD gain 1644.62 - | 1784.42 |
8.50%
| ||||||
| - 26 month gain 1264.20 - | 1784.42 |
41.15%
| ||||||
| - 38 month gain 1000.00 - | 1784.42 |
78.44%
| ||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 6276.88 - | 6352.95 |
1.21%
| ||||||
| - YTD gain 5897.81 - | 6352.95 |
7.72%
| ||||||
| - 26 month gain 5971.01 - | 6352.95 |
6.40%
| ||||||
| - 38 month gain 5412.88 - | 6352.95 |
17.37%
| ||||||
| Transactions: | ||||||||
| 04/02/2013 | Div | GE @ 14.41c per share | ||||||
| 06/02/2013 | Div | Vodaphone @ 3.27p per share | ||||||
| 20/02/2013 | Div | Apple @ 145.32p per share | ||||||
| 26/02/2013 | Div | IG Group @ 5.75p per share | ||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | ||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.5163 as at 28/02/13 | ||||||||
Chartwise I have once again had to add a further 10% bar to the scale, and may yet rebase the chart (for a second time), to the 31 Dec 2011 from the current 31 Dec 2010 (and previous 31 Dec 2009).
Visually the 2 points continue to move further apart (through individual performances and dividend reinvestment), despite sharing a similarly contoured profile (in line with macroeconomic events).
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return. |
Officially I now feel part of the barnstorming start to 2013 but cannot help taking an opposing sentiment, as fundamental performance and political actions need to catch up with stock markets.
There are also a few portfolio speed bumps ahead as well, with speculation over Aviva's dividend (update tomorrow), the advancing legal proceedings against BP, Morrison's flat performance, and Apple's lack of friends being the most obvious.
I'll also need to take a view on any William Hill rights issue, although it should be easily taken up if the current trajectory of the share price is any indication of demand for the shares.
Inevitably attention will turn back to: the US's management of debt and postponed budget cuts; Chinese growth v. inflation; the future of the EU; and many more.
But if there wasn't these concerns there would be others, there always are.
It is just the painful memory of the credit crunch and the long drawn out recovery with no end in sight which makes these concerns seem "taller in real life!"
But I continue to pursue an investment horizon beyond these concerns that I hope will absorb them. After all the longer the horizon the smaller these historical seismic events seem to have been when we look back on them.
Onwards and upwards then!
Previous posts:
- January 2013: Portfolio Update.
- December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).
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