Friday, 10 May 2013

March 2013: Portfolio Update.

OK, so I've a bit of catching up to do.

March has been and gone but my portfolio appears to have maintained its February momentum with a further 3.45% gain in March v. the FTSE 100's 0.93%.
The year to date position is now a satisfying 12.25%.

3 dividends came in from Microsoft, SSE, and BP, but most of the monthly gains came from R-R, BAE, IG, Morrisons, and Vodafone which served to offset the chunky falls in Aviva, and William Hill.

Smaller gains in Apple, Centrica and National Grid also helped.

On the news front:
- Apple has continued its eye watering collapse which still seems a purely vindictive and speculative move to knock down the successful but might just be bottoming out now.
- National Grid has managed to remove some of the uncertainty around its future prospects (National Grid's jump start to 2013.), but now seems a little overvalued in the short term.
- Aviva, well the new CEO has certainly made his mark there already (Aviva Chief shows faith??), and now has a lot to prove to restore my faith, but should have weighted the chances of success (personal success perhaps), heavily in his favour with his actions.
- Vodafone appears to be flirting with Verizon Communications over a possible resolution of the companies' highly profitable joint venture, Verizon Wireless.
- William Hill has progressed beyond its rights issue, which I took up by the way, and its new capital base and share price position will establish itself in April's update as the new fully paid shares are added to the market listing.
- Morrison's remains an oddly indecisive operation at the moment and it appears that city advisors are able to lead it where they want, which in this case seems to be towards Ocado in an attempt to boost its online presence.

The exchange rate continues to heavily weighted towards the dollar at around $1.51 which is boosting the sterling valuation of my US holdings by around 4%.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD 27 mth
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
R-R 1130.00p 37.05% 1.75% 9.92% 29.36% 81.38%
National Grid 765.00p 16.70% 5.35% 4.87% 8.82% 38.34%
Aviva 296.20p 8.63% 8.73% -16.98% -20.59% -12.33%
BP 459.90p 4.98% 4.94% 3.19% 8.26% 0.48%
Apple ** $442.63 5.07% 1.75% 0.07% -11.62% 19.59%
IG Group 534.00p 4.77% 4.11% 8.27% 18.67% 11.90%
William Hill 369.90p 3.42% 3.07% -8.60% 6.26% 116.70%
General Electric ** $23.06 2.45% 2.56% -0.91% 16.91% 55.15%
Centrica 367.70p 2.29% 4.45% 4.43% 10.22% 10.89%
SSE 1484.00p 2.03% 5.68% 2.63% 4.65% 21.14%
Microsoft ** $28.61 1.92% 2.69% 2.70% 13.92% 5.18%
BAE Systems 394.30p 1.95% 4.97% 11.04% 17.04% 19.48%
Vodafone 186.60p 1.79% 5.55% 12.72% 20.82% 15.80%
BG Group 1129.00p 1.63% 1.56% -3.13% 11.51% -12.89%
Morrisons 276.20p 1.73% 4.25% 6.39% 5.02% 3.21%
Tesco 381.55p 1.51% 3.89% 3.23% 13.56% -4.35%
Cash 2.07% 0.00%
100.00% 3.62%
1 Month YTD 27 mth
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   1784.42 -  1846.06 3.45%
- YTD gain         1644.62 - 1846.06 12.25%
- 27 month gain 1264.20 - 1846.06 46.03%
- 39 month gain 1000.00 - 1846.06 84.61%
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   6352.95 -   6411.74 0.93%
- YTD gain         5897.81 -  6411.74 8.71%
- 27 month gain 5971.01 - 6411.74 7.38%
- 39 month gain 5412.88 - 6411.74 18.45%
18/03/2013 Div Microsoft @ 12.88p per share (*)
23/03/2012 Div Scottish & Southern @ 24p per share
30/03/2012 Div BP @ 4.3p per share
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.51943 as at 31/03/13

Onto the graph which, taking the year so far as a whole is showing probably the most disconnected trend that it has shown since I began this more disciplined focus on things. 
The initial FTSE100 out performance in January, has now flattened significantly whereas my own portfolio has continued the trend that began in January.
Not that this can continue but I will enjoy it while it lasts.

Click to enlarge, close to return.

So not too much else to say about March. The one theme being that some uncertainty has been removed around Aviva and National Grid, and Rolls-Royce has managed to surge significantly in 2013 so far with a gain of 29.36%.

Whilst wanting this to continue it seems unlikely that it will and some consolidation should be expected and maybe a correction should another hit to market confidence be voiced during the quieter mid year trading quarters.
But as ever my portfolio's current performance continues to give me confidence that my strategy is right and will see my portfolio continue to grow and yield.

Related Posts:
National Grid's jump start to 2013.
Aviva Chief shows faith??
February 2013: Portfolio update.
January 2013: Portfolio Update.
December 2012: Portfolio Update (2012 Year-end).

1 comment:

  1. Continued from March 2013

    Hi MA
    Good to hear from you again.

    Interesting times as usual. I am trying to buy assets at prices where the position does not lose capital. Probably buying in bits and with the chart in mind. One of the dangers of this method is that you easily dont get enough of a good share.

    I think that we had a bit of an inflection late last year when the market could have gone down but it went up. I do spend time on breadth indicators as it could as easily descend. Its risen since 2009 and that can make you think it will always. I think about it going down.

    BBY & KIE , I made a bit of a mistake a few years ago in taking profits on GNK / MARS and also some of the housebuilders. I made a good turn but could have made more. I have been thinking that the infrastructure fraternity is a bit out of favour and unloved sectors are of interest to me. I recently bought close to lows but have not acquired that much as yet. I am waiting for things to settle. Mindful that the market is at a high even if the stocks are at lows. I am also mindful that their profitability is grim. Lets see...
    BG recently dropped and I picked up about 1/3 of what I would like , should have got a bit more.
    I bought some MRW at 250/260 but it seems to have taken off. I shall wait until it calms down and get more if attractive. How the markets know their mind.
    GRG , I like the idea and the fundamentals but its a bit small and undiverse I wonder. I thought that from trendlines that 430 would be a good price. Reading comment on BBs I see that there is a feeling that they are a bit over the hill. Its actually expensive by MBV and Tobins Q , directors have small holdings...I bought a bit at 400 but expect that it could fall further. I just wonder whether this is a market over reaction....
    FGP - A scary one the debt laden First Group. Again I wonder if the market has over reacted. I bought three or four bits between 230 and 188. The position is not underwater and the divi is good. Lots to go wrong but its been quiet of late. Being a service/utility its cash flow is good and seems to cover things. I guess that there is is a board there with an interest in getting the share upwards. I am looking to buy a bit more.

    I will post some of my other holdings and current targets soon.