June 2018: Portfolio Update.

At best June was a stand still month in what has been a fairly stagnant year when looking at the actual performance numbers of -0.25% in the month and just 1.65% for the year as a whole.

In reality, the year has set off like a runaway horse before being hauled back in by the dominant political theme of international trade, with international trade itself being under assault by the two dominant changes in recent years, these being Brexit and Donald Trump.

The constant message from markets is that they don't like uncertainty and that is exactly what we have at the moment.

Many would also have you think of our being in the May to September doldrums i.e the old adage of "Sell in May and go away until St. Ledgers day".

Anyway, changes have been instigated following the sale of Berkeley Group in the previous months. Which also proved to be a fortuitously timed sale following the Chairman's statement regarding a slowdown in profits: WebFG: When Berkeley chairman Pidgley acts 'markets should listen', analysts warn, which has seen the shares fallback by close to 20%.

But, back to the changes which have seen the introduction of Standard Chartered, and Standard Life Aberdeen. 

My hope being that Standard Chartered has turned its own restructuring corner and will begin to generate growth in its profits and dividends. Standard Life has also begun a transformation of sorts with a merge with Aberdeen funds so some synergies and a high dividend are its attractions for me.

I was anticipating a bigger holding in both but have held back a little powder and will probably add to both. As things stand, both shares have dropped slightly since my purchases.

As a result of my caution ie. not fully investing, the forward forecast yield has fallen a little to 4.75% (May: 4.89%), but as forecasts are prone to do, this will fluctuate, besides I would expect this to recover as I re-invest the remainder of my portfolio's cash.
Barring mishaps, a near 5% yield plus capital growth potential is a comfortable place to be, particularly with the mix of holdings.

I do have some slightly increasing concerns around tobacco: BAT and Imperial Brands, and SSE, but this is to be expected given the negative news flow backdrop. 
In addition, exchange rates look to be playing havoc  with the former two.
But shares don't always follow a smooth trajectory and often flit in and out of favour. 
Along those lines, its worth noting that suddenly Lloyds isn't currently held in the same favour that it has been given the speculative backdrop of Brexit and its UK centric business model of bread and butter banking.

In addition to the two "Standard" purchases, a small addition to Vodafone was also made and there were a few nice dividends from BP, RDS, and Imperial Brands. 
From a yield perspective: BP and Imperial Brands are turning into nice little dividend generators having given back a respective 31.87% and 21.53% of my original investment in dividends alone. Adding to that with capital growth of 39%: BP, and 17.7%: Imperial Brands.
Imperial was closer to 50% capital growth until the negative cloud that descended over its economies of scale and the tobacco industry as a whole. A case of secondary smoke perhaps?

Much the same flavour of uncertainty has extended into July which is shaping to be a similarly flat performance and no expected dividends.

Merchant Adventurer's Index
			Forecast	1 month	YTD	All time
	Price	% holding	Div. yield	% gain	% gain	% gain
Lloyds	63.05p	24.93%	5.38%	-0.25%	-7.36%	2.11%
Aviva	504.00p	12.71%	5.76%	-1.33%	-0.49%	40.91%
National Grid	838.40p	12.22%	5.62%	0.61%	-3.89%	73.24%
BP	578.30p	12.53%	5.19%	0.35%	10.64%	39.00%
Apple **	$185.11	10.19%	1.25%	-0.24%	11.85%	382.96%
BAT	3830.00p	2.53%	5.30%	-1.01%	-23.67%	14.18%
Imperial Brands	2822.00p	3.93%	6.80%	4.13%	-4.62%	17.70%
Royal Dutch Shell	2713.50p	2.92%	5.04%	1.36%	8.17%	5.41%
Vodafone	183.82p	1.96%	7.14%	-4.05%	-20.28%	-25.29%
SSE	1355.00p	1.30%	7.21%	-0.91%	2.65%	17.73%
Galliford Try	873.50p	1.51%	8.37%	-9.25%	20.01%	11.82%
Standard Chartered	692.60p	3.26%	2.61%	-2.10%	-2.10%	-2.10%
Standard Life Aberdeen	325.70p	3.13%	6.89%	-5.95%	-5.95%	-5.95%
Cash		6.87%	0.00%
		100.00%	4.75%
				1 month	YTD	All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2633.40	2626.82			-0.25%
- YTD gain         2583.68	2626.82				1.65%
- 102 month gain 1000.00	2626.82					162.68%
Unit Price - £	2.62682	(Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7678.20	7636.93			-0.54%
- YTD gain         7687.80	7636.93				-0.66%
- 102 month gain 5412.88	7636.93					41.09%
Transactions:
22/06/2018	Div	BP @ 7.44p per share
18/06/2018	Div	RDS 'B' @ 35.18p per share
22/06/2018	Buy	Standard Chartered @ 707.44p per share
22/06/2018	Buy	Standard Life Aberdeen @ 346.31p
22/06/2018	Buy	Vodafone @ 187.46p per share
29/06/2018	Div	Imp.Brands @ 28.43p per share
Notes:
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: 1.32064 as at 30/06/18
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: 1.12967 as at 30/06/18

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