Wednesday 19 January 2011

Apple / BP / NG / IG Group / R-R : updates on current volatility.

At times like these it is strange not to feel that the universe has not singled you out for a kicking (as a former colleague of mine would describe it). Funnily enough I only seem to recognise volatility when the shares are going down!!

It is early days yet but to update:

BP @ 511.4p, +2.4 (0.47%), appears to be maintaining its recovery momentum despite the mixed reception to its recent dealings with Rosneft.

Apple @ $340.65, -$7.83 (-2.25%), recovered some of its composure balancing forecast beating results with the news that Steve Jobs is taking a 3rd medical leave from day to day operations.

National Grid @ 533.5p, -7 (-1.3%), lots of downward pressure on the shares and yesterdays brief respite being quickly quashed. Very little newsflow so more of a speculative assumption that debt levels, recent failures to negotiate US price increases, and shareholder pressure is driving the negative sentiment.
I guess that there is still some taint in the credibility of the Chief Executive - Steven Holliday after last years shock rights issue announcement (reversing on previous statements that one wouldn't be required).
Again, with the option to divest some or all of its US operations any leaning towards this change in strategy would be likely to support and propel the shares (as would a change in Chief Exec. if credibility is the concern).

On the plus side the interim dividend of 12.9p per share is due to be paid out today.

IG Group @ 471.6p, -9.4p (-1.95%), continues to be under pressure after yesterdays trading statement and the write down of its Japanese investment (purchased as an established business in 2008 for £122m), which illustrates some of the dangers that regulation can bring. The shares have at least bounced from a low of 466p this morning but with the curtailing of its Japanese expansion this leaves the US as its remaining big growth opportunity. From experience this is once again a risky market due to state regulation and Christian support groups (I know, I know but this is political pressure and certainly had a big effect with online gambling companies leading to jail sentences). But, as some of these regulations are slowly being unwound, and if IG concentrates on the financial markets and instruments of investment then this would seem prudent whilst still providing growth. The US operations currently contribute about £1m to IG's revenues.

R-R @ 653p, -8p (-1.21%), has certainly been a volatile share (up and down), for much of the last 12 months. Strange when the only news announcement today was in the Nuclear division where an agreement has been signed to collaborate with the "Nuclear Power Delivery UK (NPD) consortium in its plans to deploy the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear reactor in the UK".
As observed in previous postings the aerospace markets appear to be stepping up so the opportunity is there.
Ah, just made the connection! Overnight Boeing have announced a new delivery date for the first 787 (pushing it back into the 3rd quarter) following the recent in flight test issues (see theaustralian.com: Boeing delays 787 delivery till third quarter.).
It won't materially affect Boeing's full year earnings or (at this stage), planned volumes of 787 in the year but with R-R engines on it there could be some pressure on R-R as yet another delay affecting deliveries. Strangely Boeing shares went up by 3.43% to $72.47.

Link to theaustralian.com: Boeing delays 787 delivery till third quarter

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