Adventures in Equities: Dow Jones at 29 month high!

Thursday 27 January 2011

Dow Jones at 29 month high!

Overnight news is that the Dow is now sitting at a 29 month high as it briefly breached the 12,000 mark before finishing at 11985.44, +8.25 (0.07%).

Lots of facets to this not least of which is the affirmation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its $600bn bond buying programme as it seeks to maintain the recovery.
More interesting for me was the overnight State of the Union address from Barack Obama in which he stated a willingness to review and lower the top rate of corporation tax for the first time in 25 years. The caveat being as long as it doesn't add to the deficit but, public spending cuts totalling $400bn could provide the leeway. At last some foresight to distribute some of the assistance beyond the banking community.

Further good news for the US came in the form of new home sales surging 18% in the last month and the International Monetary Fund increasing its growth forecast for the region to 3%, double the figure for the Eurozone.

What can I take from this news well it does suggest that the US is recovering faster and that Industrials in particular are starting to pick up with bellwethers like GE and United Technologies delivering promising trading statements for the fourth quarter:

GE @ $19.92, -0.06 (-0.3%), sales revenue up 1% to $41.38bn (consensus was $39.9bn) but net income rose 50% to $4.5bn from $3bn previously (msnbc.msn.com: GE posts better-than-expected earnings).

United Technologies @ $81.41, -0.32 (-0.39%), also beat analysts expectations with sales revenues up to $14.86bn from $13.98bn last year. Net income also rose to $1.2bn from $1.07bn previously (online.wsj.com: United Technologies 4Q Profit Up 12%; Results Beat Views).

Not all good news though, as Boeing published its mixed bag with earnings dipping 8% in the fourth quarter and the prospect that, despite an increase of 152%, full year earnings will be below analysts estimates (google.com: Boeing fourth-quarter profits slump on lower sales) driven primarily by the much catalogued problems with the 787 Dreamliner.
And, with the first deliveries of the new aircraft pushed back a further 6 months into the last quarter of 2011(independent.co.uk/: dreamliner delivery put back to the autumn) I would expect it to impact next years earnings too.
On the plus side, margins are up to 7.7% (3.1%), orders and production rates are increasing, and with a possible first delivery in sight for the ground breaking 787, Boeing may just be entering a new growth phase.

Boeing @ $70.02, -2.22 (-3.07%)

Previously, I have also posted the view that the FTSE has tended to follow the fortunes of the DJIA very closely, which you can see from the chart below (blue is DJIA). So, despite the seemingly volatile times created by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy (and the Coalition Government addressing the financial disaster that was overseen by the same BoE Governor and the previous Government) it could be that the FTSE will still benefit from any upside in the DJIA. I would caveat this with the view that it will primarily be the large blue chips with global earnings exposure that will drive the FTSE though.
And, as the charts are historical, it has to be said that this might not continue. Still sounds promising on a long term basis though.