Monday 11 July 2011

There's Sovereign debt and then there's SOVEREIGN DEBT.

Another week and the same old rumours and problems arise with an added dash of contagion. 
As well as Greece, the sovereign debt speculation once again includes Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the so called PIIGS back together for their European re-union tour!

Funny the event that has triggered this renewed assault on each of these states is the fact that the European Central Bank has raised interest rates which, certainly from Greece's perspective, is the very opposite of what it would want to do demonstrating once again the weakness of managing such a large and diverse (geographic and demographic) area when the first tool in the box is generally interest rates.

But, there is potentially an even bigger concern on the horizon with the high stakes poker game being played out in the US as a battle of political and ideological wills takes place in Congress. 
The focus is on the US's debt limits (currently set at $14.26 trillion!) which Congress must approve the raising of. In April the National Debt stood at $14.28 trillion!


The issue is that at, at the same time there are calls to reduce the budgeted spend to address the trend at least in line with any raising of the limit.

The $ is the world's reserve currency and the US has never missed a payment so, despite looking catastrophic on paper, it seems unthinkable that the US could default or that Congress and National pride would allow it to - whatever the political differences.
The deadline date for an agreement to be reached is quoted as the 2nd of August after which the Government will lose its authority to borrow further and the dominoes start falling: social security payments; civil servant pay; contracted works; bond holders etc. 


Despite a belief that it can't happen the world will watch this one with a detached fascination.

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