Tuesday, 20 November 2012

What to do with a problem like Microsoft?

Microsoft @ $26.73, +$0.21 (0.78%).

OK, so having just gone through the painful process of selecting a new Laptop (the only work related solution for me), I have had to go through the rather painful journey of comparison between Windows 7 and Windows 8 to the point where I have then had a race against time to snap up a "chosen" Windows 7 based Laptop before they are all "upgraded" (or so they say), to Windows 8.

And having fitfully navigated through this vacuum of compatibility information, it raises a significant concern to me as to the fate of my share holding in Microsoft, which has recently tumbled 20% following the departure of Steven Sinofsky, the assumed heir apparent to CEO Steve Ballmer, and executive in charge of developing Windows 8 to its current launch status.

Having seemingly rescued the Windows evolution from the depths of Vista with a successful Windows 7, Sinofsky's latest challenge was to meaningfully re-invent Windows 8 for the multi-platform mobile revolution. 
But whilst the Metro interface seems to work prettily, with an obvious appeal and familiarity to Windows Phone users, and therefore suggest Windows as an option in the Tablet sector, the new OS seems to be struggling for meaningful compatibility with its current raison d'etre in its traditional commercial markets.
Either that or it is being marketed very badly?

It also still feels like tablets are media devices rather than the portable work stations that many of us need.
It might therefore be a race against time to ensure commercial software development is sufficiently tight to the new OS.
Of course it will also still cause resentment in many users, particularly so in the smaller business sectors where software upgrade after software upgrade and ongoing compatibility with purchased services cause a strain on cashflow, communication and relationships, capability, suitability, and backwards compatibility (of records and back-ups), etc, etc.

I saw the launch of Windows 8 as a positive second coming for Microsoft which would further entrench its position with Windows and Office as the mainstay of many a business.
I'm concerned now that the well might have been poisoned for a time.

Am I being over dramatic though? And is it just the same cyclical issue that arises from each new launch. 
Survival of the fittest (with sufficient access to finance), then?

At least writing it down like this I can see that it must have happened with each new incarnation.
But, is this time different (as the saying goes), and will it speed up a migration to other establishing OS's, and therefore make inroads into Microsoft's encumbent position.

It might be that the company points to a huge uptake on the cheap upgrade front but I'll also need to keep an eye on PC manufacturer sales.
Its discomfiting but, given that personal experience is a form of market research, I am seriously considering selling my portfolio's holding in Microsoft on the back of it. 

Related Posts:
October 2012: Portfolio Update (The Long Haul).
How is my Globally Diversified Technology, Growth and Hedge portfolio getting on?

1 comment:

  1. Stick with Windows 8. It makes your computer run at lightspeed in comparison to 7 and XP.

    I was sort of confused for the first week of using it but it soon comes as second nature to drop between the desktop to do clever stuff and the windows metro screen to absorb news / videos / apps / etc.

    The new interface adds an entire new level to Windows that wasn't really there before. You can choose to ignore it if you wish but I think it's a very good evolution.

    Of course, it makes even more sense on tablets and phones, and that is where the future battle probably lies.

    As to desktops I think Microsoft have got it right. Moving to Windows 8 doesn't make all your existing software redundant - they still work. Unlike say if you had bought a mac. They produce a new OS every year and build in redundancy so that applications also have to be upgraded. Try using a 5 year old mac laptop - it's useless.

    Microsoft's biggest problem is that their last OS (windows 7) was so good there really isn't any need to buy another computer and therefore new OS. The big threat is themselves...and Ballmer appears to be an idiot.

    But look at it as a consumer, if you were going to buy a new laptop / desktop tomorrow, you could buy a Windows or Mac. One costs you about £350 and the other costs you about £800. The vast majority of people are going to choose the former. That's why Microsoft aren't going away in a hurry.

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