Despite their protestations that some of the bad news had already been communicated they ultimately must still take responsibility to manage shareholder expectations.
It is a bit of a boring litany from me these days but Directors are ultimately stewards of a company on behalf of shareholders'.
But that disappointment aside I have to confess that my head is still not completely back in the game after returning from a tour of Florida's Gulf Coast beaches.
Coming back to shorter, colder, and wetter days tends to dampen one's enthusiasm.
But the sun is shining today and an erratic disappointing October is now history, as are the expectation missing updates in what has seemed to me a drawn out 3rd quarter reporting season in the US overlapping the UK.
Thats not to say that there won't be more disappointments coming in the next few days/weeks with more UK updates to come, but I can hope that reactions might be a little more tempered and muted following the recalibration of expectations from Apple, Microsoft, Google, GE, Tesco, BG et al.
Portfolio wise things have been just as erratic particularly as Apple, Microsoft, GE, Tesco, and BG have all disappointed to varying degrees.
The 2 reporting bright sparks in the month came from BP, and William Hill.
The former seeming to take a number of stumbling steps towards rehabilitation with its Rosneft deal, then managing to surprise the market with better than expected profits and an increase to its quarterly dividend.
And William Hill continues to extend its day in the sun with potential takeovers in the making and a satisfactory update.
Both added to the portfolio's performance this month with gains of 1.56% for BP, and a table topping 6.69% for William Hill (despite also trading ex. dividend).
3 further holdings: Tesco; BAE; and R-R, also turned ex. dividend, but SSE, R-R, National Grid, and Aviva showed share price gains in the month which, alongside a healthy dividend payment from IG, contributed to the portfolio gaining a minor 0.49% in the month.
Still odd seeing Apple down -10% in a month though.
| Merchant Adventurer's Index | ||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 22 mth | |||||
| Price | % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||
| R-R | 875.50p | 32.00% | 2.30% | 1.36% | 14.47% | 37.16% | ||
| National Grid | 706.50p | 17.61% | 5.78% | 3.44% | 13.04% | 27.76% | ||
| Aviva | 331.40p | 11.02% | 7.88% | 3.98% | 9.65% | -1.91% | ||
| Apple ** | $595.32 | 5.33% | 0.32% | -10.64% | 41.55% | 74.33% | ||
| BP | 443.30p | 5.49% | 4.53% | 1.56% | -2.43% | -3.15% | ||
| IG Group | 435.50p | 4.44% | 5.25% | -2.35% | -4.85% | -8.74% | ||
| William Hill | 338.00p | 3.57% | 3.27% | 6.69% | 66.67% | 98.01% | ||
| General Electric ** | $21.12 | 2.41% | 2.74% | -6.85% | 13.56% | 33.84% | ||
| Centrica | 324.10p | 2.30% | 5.05% | -1.13% | 12.03% | -2.26% | ||
| SSE | 1448.00p | 2.26% | 5.82% | 4.02% | 12.16% | 18.20% | ||
| Microsoft ** | $28.58 | 2.06% | 2.64% | -3.88% | 6.02% | -1.05% | ||
| BG Group | 1147.50p | 1.90% | 1.41% | -8.20% | -16.64% | -11.46% | ||
| Morrisons | 267.90p | 1.91% | 4.41% | -6.07% | -17.87% | 0.11% | ||
| Vodafone | 168.25p | 1.85% | 7.40% | -4.27% | -5.95% | 4.42% | ||
| BAE Systems | 312.20p | 1.77% | 6.25% | -3.97% | 9.51% | -5.39% | ||
| Tesco | 319.85p | 1.45% | 4.65% | -3.66% | -20.72% | -19.82% | ||
| Cash | 2.63% | 0.00% | ||||||
| 100.00% | 4.03% | |||||||
| 1 Month | YTD | 22 mth | ||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Divs) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 1608.75 - | 1616.66 | 0.49% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 1409.55 - | 1616.66 | 14.69% | ||||||
| - 22 month gain 1264.20 - | 1616.66 | 27.88% | ||||||
| - 34 month gain 1000.00 - | 1616.66 | 61.67% | ||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Dividends) | ||||||||
| - 1 month gain 5742.07 - | 5782.7 | 0.71% | ||||||
| - YTD gain 5572.28 - | 5782.7 | 3.78% | ||||||
| - 22 month gain 5971.01 - | 5782.7 | -3.15% | ||||||
| - 34 month gain 5412.88 - | 5782.7 | 6.83% | ||||||
| Transactions: | ||||||||
| 11/10/2012 | Div | IG Group @ 14.75p per share | ||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax | ||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.61603 as at 31/10/12 | ||||||||
In contrast, the FTSE100 did better still with a gain of 0.71% but remains behind on a year to date basis with a gain of just 3.78% (excl. dividends), as opposed to my portfolio's gain of 14.69% (with dividends re-invested).
On a 22 month basis the outperformance is even more pronounced with the FTSE100 still -3.15% down on the 5971.01 it stood at on the 31 December 2010 whereas my portfolio is up some 27.88%.
A performance which continues to underline the benefits of re-investing dividends.
 |
| Click to enlarge, close to return |
So despite October proving to be a recalibration of expectations, I am still taking a number of positives from it principally:
- new product launches from Apple which at least takes uncertainty out of the way allowing consumers to choose;
- Tesco's update showed some small improvement in performance which might at least put a floor under its UK market share and its share price.
- BP replacing the infighting uncertainty of TNK-BP with the unknown quantity that is state controlled Rosneft. And increasing the dividend.
The rolling bandwagon of ex. dividends and dividend payouts will also continue in November with 2 more holdings due to trade ex.dividend and 5 payments due including GE's which doesn't appear to have cleared customs yet as it hasn't landed in my account.
|
If nothing else October's disappointment has also started to make a few shares look interesting again which might yet tempt me to make another purchase before the year-end.
I also think it definitely worth noting that October/November has seemed to be such a significant period of quarterly updates which, in future, might add some weight to any trading indecision around this time of year.
And, it being the last quarter before christmas in a still difficult, and uncertain, political and economic environment, perhaps disappointment shouldn't have been such a surprise and investors expectations needed re-calibrating in the short term.
But, one quarter is one quarter and doesn't represent a longer term, or the long haul!
Links to Portfolio updates:
- September 2012: Portfolio Update.
- August 2012: Portfolio update.
- July 2012: Portfolio update.
- June 2012: Portfolio Update.
- May 2012: Portfolio Update.
- April 2012: Portfolio Update.
- March 2012: Portfolio Update.
- February 2012: Portfolio Update.
- January 2012: Portfolio Update.
- December 2011: Portfolio Update.
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