Tuesday 6 March 2018

February 2018: Portfolio Update (Try-ing times!).

Onto February 2018, and markets again fell sharply in a continuation of January's end.

Already doom and gloom rolling in like "The Fog". 

Markets did recover a small amount before falling again at the end of Feb. 
It will be interesting to see if this level can be a new base for markets to consolidate or will there be more falls to come.

As it is my portfolio fell -2.53% v. the FTSE's -4% with a mixture of big falls and little falls plus a few little gains.

Concerning to see BAT, Imperial Brands, National Grid and Vodafone leading the fallers.

Elsewhere, you might notice a new addition this month, along with a couple of small top-ups (Imperial Brands, National Grid), I have added Galliford Try to the mix.
I have been tempted by its profitable house building arm for some time given that it came off highs and it has had a further step fall in the wake of one of its partners on the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route Contract (AWPR), Carillion, descending into liquidation.
The other partner being Balfour Beatty which has had its own long running issues.

But, it seems to have taken the right steps, instigating a cash call to fund the shortfall created by Carillion no longer being an investing partner in the AWPR, which will enable it to continue to invest in opportunities within its Linden Homes, and Partnership and Regeneration arms.

The company has also re-iterated that it has already taken steps to withdraw from fixed price, all-risk projects, such as AWPR.

In another prudent step it has shaved its dividend to bring it into line with what was a stated future goal, it being to maintain a twice covered (by pre-exceptional earnings), dividend.

On a cautious note it should be noted that in April of last year, the company did lose Greg Fitzgerald (CEO and Chairman), a company man of 30 years and probably, a more than integral part of its success, to Bovis shortly after a failed merge with the struggling house-builder. 

It increases my portfolio's exposure to UK house builders to 13%, with Berkeley Group forming the larger part of that.

Its also a turnaround story of course but perhaps one that should never be, we shall have to wait and see, and keep a close eye on its progress of course.

Galliford Try now vies with the battered utility company, SSE for the position of smallest holding in my portfolio. SSE currently taking the honours although Galliford has only been included for a couple of weeks.

The spider that was Carillion collapsed in January of course, leading to widespread concerns as its web spread far across National and International Infrastructure projects and maintenance contracts, including our hospitals, schools and other public services.
Its anticipated that this will take time to resolve and likely to be on a piece by piece basis.
As ever, the way the company reported and was managed is a concern as it managed to hide its problems for such a long time and its with trepidation that one looks wider and asks how common is it and is there another bear trap out there for unwary investors.

Elsewhere, dividends were added from Vodafone, BAT, and Apple.



Merchant Adventurer's Index
Forecast 1 month YTD All time
Price % holding Div. yield % gain % gain % gain
Lloyds 68.80p 29.02% 0.00% -1.02% 1.09% 11.43%
Aviva 505.60p 13.60% 4.18% -1.48% -0.18% 41.35%
Berkeley Group 3854.00p 11.66% 0.00% -2.82% -8.17% 64.30%
National Grid 740.20p 11.20% 6.05% -8.02% -15.30% 61.16%
BP 475.15p 10.99% 5.50% -5.18% -9.10% 14.20%
Apple ** $178.26 9.94% 0.95% 8.56% 2.30% 341.71%
BAT 4295.50p 3.03% 3.64% -10.86% -14.40% 28.06%
Imperial Brands 2619.00p 2.93% 5.36% -9.64% -14.05% 13.85%
Royal Dutch Shell 2321.00p 2.67% 0.96% -7.01% -7.47% -9.84%
Vodafone 203.75p 2.07% 5.78% -9.20% -13.30% -19.24%
SSE 1225.00p 1.25% 7.48% -6.09% -7.20% 6.44%
Galliford Try 918.00p 1.27% 13.33% 7.72% 7.72% 7.72%
Cash 0.38% 0.00%
100.00% 2.62%
1 month YTD All time
Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   2526.26   2462.37 -2.53%
- YTD gain         2583.68  2462.37 -4.72%
- 98 month gain 1000.00  2462.37 146.24%
Unit Price - £ 2.46237 (Starting price - £1)
FTSE gain (excl. Dividends)
- 1 month gain   7533.60  7231.90 -4.00%
- YTD gain         7687.80  7231.90 -5.93%
- 98 month gain 5412.88  7231.90 39.18%

Transactions:

02/02/2017 Div Vodafone @ 4.24p per share
08/02/2017 Div BAT @ 43.6p per share
15/02/2017 Buy Galliford Try @ 8.5218p per share
19/02/2017 Div Apple @ 38.02p per share
22/02/2017 Buy Imp.Brands @ 2620.57p per share
22/02/2017 Buy National Grid @ 756.54p per share
Notes: 
*     US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax
**   Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.39058 as at 28/02/18
*** Sterling : Euro exchange rate = £1: $1.13706 as at 28/02/18


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