Sunday 11 March 2018

Recent reporting and progress: Rolls-Royce; Lloyds, Aviva.

An interesting few weeks of reporting with Rolls-Royce, Lloyds and Aviva coming back to the markets to report on progress.

Rolls-Royce in particular shot up more than 10% after reporting profits and cash-flow figures ahead of consensus expectations, as well as progress on its XWB engine program..
A definite feather in the cap of CEO Warren East following the series of profit warnings, and SFO investigations, that came thick and fast in the early stages of his appointment, a legacy of the previous anonymous leadership of his predecessors. 
The hard truths that followed have seen a plan of action by East that might soon find the company establish a new baseline after a series of cost cutting measures that has/will trim the groups headcount as well as its markets as it tries to once again reconnect with its core business technology to ensure investment and strategy are focused.

Despite the results and guidance for the next two years, the current rating still feels a little frothy and ahead of progress. The business is very much a long term one though and the success of the corrective strategy and return to its ratings equilibrium perhaps needs to be looked at with a minimum 5 year view (if that 5 year commitment data was publicly available), otherwise a leap of faith is required.

Back in February, another recovering giant, Lloyds also reported. Whereas R-R beat expectations, Lloyds came in slightly behind expectations.
But, results were still well received given the 20% increase to the dividend and a share buyback program (a pet hate of mine), being announced. PPI compensation is still a restraining factor in the bank but should now be starting to be less of an inertia as time moves forward.
Similar to the R-R story, since joining Lloyds CEO António Horta Osório has quietly gone about the business of addressing the bank's core markets , simplification, and dealing with regulatory fall-out, and after re-instating the dividend in 2015, the bank appears to be coming out of the other side of that transformation.
The shares initially improved by 2% following results.

Aviva also reported this week, and as with the 2 previous companies, R-R and Lloyds, a strategy of reducing cost, simplification, and reviewing its focus and presence in markets has taken place under CEO Mark Wilson.
Profits were up and, perhaps more importantly, capital surplus was well ahead of the Solvency II ratio giving the company excess capital to deploy.
As with Lloyds, this has seen the company increase its dividend and announce a share buyback program.
Although still generally positive the news was less well received and the shares initially fell but went on to recover those falls and subsequently advance as more positive reviews appear.

You will no doubt be aware that Rolls-Royce was my biggest player, and but for a difficult period and bad timing for me to come back into the news-flow, would probably still be my biggest holding due to my belief in the long term profitability of the aero-engine business and the current duopoly in long range markets. 
I did actually hold both of those companies albeit with GE a much smaller weighting in my portfolio.
As things stand, decisions were made and Rolls-Royce is no longer a holding, and its position as the largest holding has been taken by Lloyds.
Aviva is also a long term presence in my portfolio and currently the second largest holding behind Lloyds.
Together, these 2 financial service providers form a large (risky?), 42% weighting in my portfolio.

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