Saturday 22 October 2011

Have markets and the EU set us up for a fall?

Slightly concerned that  markets have been getting ahead of themselves in their enthusiasm for a solution to the Eurozone's problems (but then I haven't understood the retreat either), when there isn't actually a solution yet and other than vague re-assurances that a plan will be unveiled there seems to be little solid evidence to suggest that there is the firepower and collective will to save the euro, and support sovereign and financial institutions' liabilities within the deadlines communicated.
After all, the deadline has already been extended to Wednesday.

EU leaders continue to dither and give less than positive signals regarding the solutions on the table which is particularly disconcerting when the suggested estimates seem to fall short of non EU analysts e.g. 
- 100bn to recapitalise banks (EU) v 200bn (non-EU).
- 1.5tn (EU) v 2 tn (non-EU) for the bailout funds

I have to caveat the EU numbers as tending to be from speculative sources but there seems to be a number of German politicians voicing caution regarding the level of success being proposed v markets' expectations.

Perhaps the nature of politics is so contained behind closed doors that they just don't have the experience or understanding to manage the larger, more fickle global stage. Or perhaps there is the self satisfied feeling that it won't affect them within their own little circles of influence and status.
It also seems to me that every suspected weakness and criticism of a European state is there to be seen: indecision, significant differences in prosperity between regions (Greece needs a devalued currency and low interest rates to recover but the central bank has been raising them), and then the usage of such a key issue by Slovakian politicians for their own purpose.

We shall have to wait and see but it seems painful that despite the build-up to the weekend summit it seems likely to come down to the agreement of 2 people, Nicolas and Angela.

Fingers crossed that markets aren't going to be too disappointed!

1 comment:

  1. i too find the situation beyond belief. question 1 where is the bottom? I meen the european economic bottom not the wild stock market fluctuations . Have we had it? I dont think so. If Nicky and Angie are daft enough to fund a safety net of anything that ends in the word trillion, then dont be suprised whe a portugeese,and a spanish and an Italian snout joins our Greek cousins at the trough of plenty.
    Question 2.Why (until now) has the market behaved in awe of political soundbytes? The answer is of course it hasnt. Each day when the market crashed it was caused by thousands of small investors with an ear glued to radio, absorbing and understanding all of the collosal numbers involved in these forcasts and then rushing round to their broker shouting sell sell sell. The day after the politicians go back to filling in their expence forms and leave a communication vaccum so the same investors begin to worry they have been a bit kneejerk so they all run round and buy them back losing fortunes. It has absolutely nothing to do with the banking profession who always operate with complete integrity..
    Question 3 In his life,has Mervyn King got anything right ever?

    No I hear you say

    wrong




    trick question hes not dead yet therefore he still has time to get something right..

    ReplyDelete