Monday, 24 October 2011

Miners top the leader board.


Company
Value Chg
Kazakhmys 925.00 p 8.00%
Lonmin 1,112.00 p 7.65%
Antofogasta 1,178.00 p 7.48%
Rio Tinto 3,373.50 p 7.06%
Xstrata 1,016.00 p 6.78%

FTSE100 @ 5548.06, +59.41 (+1.08%)

Interesting to see the swing on miners today which was sizeable enough to push miners into the top 5 positions in the FTSE100 movers list.
The sector bubbled up nicely following positive manufacturing data out of China which served to push up metal prices, particularly copper.

Along with financials, mining would, on the face of it, appear to have suffered more than most from the heightened fear of recession, slowing Chinese growth, and sovereign debt default. Subsequently they have also been a large drag on the FTSE100.
Should these fears subside then I would expect these sectors to recover strongly relative to the FTSE and other sectors, which probably means a spell of under-performance from my portfolio given the lack of coverage in these 2 sectors. 
Although, to be fair, Aviva does provide some cover of financials and there is exposure to commodities through the portfolio's investment in BP and BG.

Restoring confidence and calming the fear still comes with a dangerously "big if" though given the mixture of messages coming out of the EU summit.
For example, its fine to inform the banks that they require additional capital, but where is it going to come from?
I would also suggest that, although finding a solution to the EU's sovereign and financial institution debt would resolve the most immediate concerns of another credit crunch it will not instantly reduce inflation, create jobs, and restore stalling growth.

However, just to avoid another credit crunch would be a hugely comforting step forward.

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